United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CHF remains in a consolidation phase after a sharp rally, with intraday trading expected between 0.8225 and 0.8265. He stays positive over the 1–3 week horizon but says it is still too early to confirm a break above 0.8300, while a move below 0.8185 would negate this view.

Dollar consolidates below key resistance

“24-HOUR VIEW: Following the sharp rally in USD that reached a high of 0.8265 two days ago, we indicated yesterday that “the sharp rally appears to be overdone, and USD is unlikely to rise much further.” We highlighted that USD “is more likely to consolidate between 0.8225 and 0.8275.” USD then traded within a 0.8220/0.8262 range, closing slightly lower by 0.12% at 0.8243. The price action is likely an ongoing consolidation phase. Today, USD is likely to trade between 0.8225 and 0.8265.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on USD one week ago. Yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 0.8250), we stated that “while momentum remains strong, it is too early to tell whether it is sufficient for USD to break above 0.8300.” Our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 0.8185 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that 0.8300 is not coming into view.”