Chris Turner at ING notes EUR/CHF fell after Swiss inflation surprised at 1.5% year-on-year, raising doubts that the Swiss National Bank can avoid tightening through 2027. He recalls the SNB’s 2023 strategy of driving the Swiss Franc stronger via FX sales and expects growing interest in the currency, with downside risks to existing EUR/CHF forecasts over coming months.

Inflation revives tightening questions

“EUR/CHF briefly traded sharply lower yesterday on the back of a surprisingly high October inflation print of 1.5% year-on-year. That raises questions about whether the Swiss National Bank can avoid tightening throughout the whole of 2027, which sources had claimed. We should hear a little more on this from SNB’s Martin Schlegel tomorrow, who speaks at an SNB watchers conference.”

“A more hawkish SNB is quite a clean positive for the Swiss franc. Traders will remember 2023, when the SNB actively drove the franc stronger and sold FX as part of its tightening toolkit. Expect to see even more interest in the Swiss franc over the coming months, with downside risks to EUR/CHF forecasts.”