Deutsche Bank’s US economists expect October US CPI to slow sharply from September’s strong reading, with both headline and core seen at 0.20% month-on-month. They note this is the last CPI release before the next Fed meeting and that markets will watch the implications for PCE inflation. A missing year-on-year figure due to last year’s shutdown is also highlighted.

Last inflation check before Fed

“Last month’s CPI print for September was a very strong one, with the fastest monthly headline CPI in six months, at +0.65%.”

“However, this time, our US economists expect inflation to have come down from its September pace, with both headline and core at +0.20% on the month.”

“However, this report will be slightly unusual because we won’t get a year-on-year number for inflation.”

“That’s because of last year’s government shutdown, which meant the October 2025 inflation level wasn’t produced, so there isn’t a number from last year to compare it to.”

“Looking at the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for October, and we’ll also get the NFIB’s small business optimism index for October.”