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ING, Institutional
British Pound: Strong data clashes with dovish BoE view – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING argues that despite stronger United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and resilient Sterling, the move in Gilts is largely externally driven and not about domestic fiscal fears. ING maintains its view that the Bank of England will not hike further, warning of a potential dovish repricing and targeting higher EUR/GBP and […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Brent: Supply risks and Saudi cuts support prices – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent and WTI have rallied sharply as Middle East tensions escalate and Saudi Arabia reports a steep drop in output. They highlight rising risks to Saudi energy infrastructure and Red Sea exports, alongside stronger Chinese crude buying and tight US inventories, suggesting Oil markets are increasingly […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Turkish Lira: Easing path and carry appeal – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to keep its policy rate at 37% for now, after normalising liquidity and lowering the effective funding rate. Weaker 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and gradual disinflation should allow two 100bp cuts to 35% in Q4, with markets already pricing a dovish path into […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Copper: Record highs driven by tariff uncertainty – ING
ING’s commodities team notes Copper has surged to fresh records on the LME, with three‑month futures nearing $14,800/t, as traders position for potential US tariffs on refined Copper imports. They argue policy expectations have tightened availability outside the US and squeezed shorts, warning that prices could correct sharply if proposed tariffs are delayed, softened or […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Oil: Risk premium builds with Persian Gulf tensions – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Oil prices are grinding higher, with ICE Brent close to $100/bbl as Middle East tensions escalate and OPEC output falls. They highlight US strikes on Iranian tankers, Iranian missile responses, and disruptions to Saudi supply, arguing that the market will likely keep a sizeable risk premium while […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Hungarian Forint: Inflation surprise and HUF dynamics – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that Hungarian inflation rebounded to 1.3% in August but stayed below expectations and the NBH’s forecast, with price growth seen remaining under target this year. Markets are focused on a potential pause in rate cuts and a lower inflation target ahead of Euro adoption, while EUR/HUF could move back above 364 […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
CEE FX: Hawkish pricing versus dovish banks – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy CEE data and policy calendar, with Hungary’s inflation seen edging up, the National Bank of Poland and Central Bank of Turkey expected on hold, and Romania’s inflation falling sharply on base effects. He argues markets overprice tightening in Czech Republic and Poland, seeing scope for narrower rate differentials and […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Oil: Tanker risks support prices – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil remains supported as tensions between the US and Iran escalate in the Persian Gulf. They highlight continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz, aided by US Navy escorts, and unchanged OPEC+ quotas. Speculative net longs in ICE Brent have risen, while disruptions mean many producers […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Oil: Elevated prices face fragile support – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices, including ICE Brent above US$95/bbl, remain supported by heightened US-Iran tensions and robust Iraqi exports routed via the Strait of Hormuz. However, they highlight that if Hormuz flows remain uninterrupted and Saudi Arabia’s unchanged official selling prices signal looser fundamentals, upward pressure on Oil […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Federal Reserve: September hike bias shifts – ING
ING’s James Knightley argues Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech has shifted the Federal Reserve’s reaction function toward a September rate hike, even though ING’s macro projections suggest the Fed could wait. The analysis highlights inflation above target, robust activity but pressured households, and concludes that a 25bp move is now more likely than a hold, […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago