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ING, Institutional
Euro: ECB tone watched on France – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged and does not see French bond market stress as sufficient to trigger a dovish pivot, given high Oil and gas prices. Markets price some chance of a December hike, but ING anticipates a cautious communication. The bank sees EUR/USD holding above 1.110, with […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Euro: Lending slowdown threatens key support against US Dollar – ING
Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD is trading at its lows of the year, pressured by broad Dollar strength, high energy prices and uncertainty around the French budget. While Eurozone activity and upcoming 3Q26 GDP data look relatively resilient, tighter lending conditions and weaker corporate loan demand raise downside risks for EUR/USD technical support […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Brent: Risk premium holds as Iran uncertainty lingers – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Brent remains elevated near $114 as investors await clarity on President Trump’s Iran policy after the US midterm elections. They argue the market has priced a higher chance of re‑escalation, but note that an absence of renewed strikes on Iran after the vote could be enough for […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
CEE FX: Downside risks dominate – ING
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes Central and Eastern European (CEE) rates are reconnecting with higher energy prices after a period of weaker correlation. Despite stronger regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than the Eurozone, he argues inflation remains the key issue. With upcoming data from Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, he sees CEE currencies facing […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Euro: France-linked spread risks keep EUR unattractive – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING notes that widening French OAT-Bund and OAT-BTP spreads have yet to materially weigh on the euro, but warns that sensitivity to French sovereign risk could return rapidly if spreads approach 200bp. He maintains a broadly bearish EUR outlook, highlighting EUR/CHF as a key sovereign-risk proxy and EUR/USD’s potential to re-test 1.1120 […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Gold: Energy-driven inflation weighs – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Gold failed to benefit from the equity sell-off and falling US Treasury yields, with spot prices down 2.8% and nearing $4,000/oz. They argue the Gold market is focused on higher Oil prices and their inflation implications, which could reinforce tighter central bank policy while US inflation remains […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Oil: Risk premium supported by Gulf tensions – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices remain well supported as ICE Brent trades back above $110/bbl following new attacks on Saudi Arabia. They highlight that Kuwait is exporting as much crude as before the war while producing more than 2m b/d, but refined product shipping issues and elevated US inventory […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike seen with CPI near forecast – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects New Zealand’s 3Q CPI to slow to 3.8%, broadly matching consensus and slightly under the RBNZ’s projection, with any upside surprise reinforcing expectations of an October rate hike. Markets already price a meaningful move after hawkish RBNZ commentary, while NZD is seen cheap versus fair value and NZD/USD is projected above […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Euro: French risks deepen downside pressure – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING highlights renewed pressure on French bonds, with the 10-year OAT-Bund spread nearing early October highs as budget worries and social unrest weigh on sentiment. EUR/CHF is seen as the main FX exhaust valve for French risk, with downside risks below key support, while EUR/USD may consolidate and EUR/GBP faces selling amid […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Oil: Middle East risks keep Brent above $100 – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil remains supported, with ICE Brent trading comfortably above $100/bbl as Middle East tensions and concerns over flows through the Strait of Hormuz sustain a risk premium. They highlight IEA members’ plan to release remaining emergency reserves and discuss US inventory draws and potential US dissatisfaction […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago