ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil remains supported as tensions between the US and Iran escalate in the Persian Gulf. They highlight continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz, aided by US Navy escorts, and unchanged OPEC+ quotas. Speculative net longs in ICE Brent have risen, while disruptions mean many producers […]
Danske Research Team reports EUR/USD trading in a narrow 1.1610–1.1620 range after quickly reversing losses from a stronger US jobs report. They highlight a thin data calendar with United States (US) markets closed, and note that attention will shift to the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a rate hike is widely expected, and […]
Japan’s foreign reserves fell by a record USD 79.6 billion, or 6.18%, to USD 1.208 trillion at the end of August 2026 from USD 1.287 trillion a month earlier, marking their lowest level since October 2022. The sharp drop came after Tokyo launched its largest-ever yen-buying intervention, spending ¥15.4 trillion ($98.7 billion) between July 30 […]
The past week brought a major surprise to the markets in the form of the US labour market report (NFP). An increase in employment of 162,000 jobs (against a forecast of just 55,000) drastically altered expectations regarding the outlook for interest rates in the US. This turn of events strengthened the dollar and put immediate […]
• NFP report as the main driver of market volatility. The U.S. economy created 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, tripling the market consensus of approximately 55,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month. The surprisingly strong data pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike […]
Commerzbank highlights that Bank Negara Malaysia kept the OPR at 2.75% but shifted to a more hawkish bias, removing language that policy is “appropriate” and signalling vigilance on cost pressures. Strong growth and benign inflation allow patience, yet the bank appears to prepare markets for a possible hike later this year or early 2027, with […]
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that USD/IDR has pulled back as a softer Dollar and lower UST yields support the Indonesian Rupiah. He highlights Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti’s emphasis on a stability-first approach, prioritizing Rupiah and macro stability while still supporting growth. Wong sees near-term support for IDR but flags elevated Oil prices and high global yields […]
Commerzbank says China’s August Services PMI rebound highlights some resilience in private-sector activity, but weak retail sales, soft inflation and higher unemployment still point to fragile domestic demand. The stronger PMI reduces the urgency for immediate PBoC easing, while leaving room for further support if growth weakens into year-end. Fragile demand keeps PBoC easing options […]
DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng notes that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75% while dropping language that the current level is appropriate. DBS expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026 but sees risks tilted towards a one-off policy normalisation. BNM holds but signals flexibility “Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its […]
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that strong foreign-currency inflows linked to the RBI’s special measures have bolstered the Indian Rupee (INR) and strengthened the central bank’s FX buffer. However, with the FCNR(B) window now closed, the exceptional near-term dollar supply is expected to fade, potentially leading to more two-way RBI management. Wong adds that USD/INR remains under bearish […]