Institutional
Deutsche Bank, Institutional
Euro: Focus on Fed signals and Jackson Hole – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists note that EUR/USD traded at 1.165 as markets await Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, which could shift expectations for the September Fed meeting. They highlight that market pricing still assigns a 35% probability to a hike, and recent Fed commentary shows a divide on how restrictive policy should be. Jackson Hole and divided […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, UOB
Japanese Yen: Range trading remains intact against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY held in a narrow band around 159.35, with a slight uptick in upward momentum. They expect this to translate into trading between 159.15 and 159.65 rather than a sustained advance. Over the coming weeks, they maintain a neutral stance, looking for range-bound […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, TDS
New Zealand Dollar: Bearish stance maintained on rate hike pricing – TD Securities
TD Securities’ FX strategist Howard Du maintains a bearish New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bias, noting that Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) tightening is largely priced and NZD positioning has normalized. They expect AUD/NZD to remain supported above 1.20 with a 1.22 year-end forecast, and see a high bar for NZD/USD to sustain gains above […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
Oil: Hormuz supply recovery eases risk premium – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY notes that improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz are easing Oil supply fears and supporting a lower Brent price profile. Kuwait and Qatar have restored crude shipments to about 70% of pre-war levels, lifting total Hormuz flows. As more Gulf barrels reach the market, the disruption premium in Oil prices […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
Japanese Yen : Range holds with BoJ hike expectations – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is stuck between resistance at 160.00 and support at the 200‑day moving average, as Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials maintain hawkish guidance and underlying inflation firms near the 2% target. Haddad expects a 25bps BoJ hike in September but argues a lower USD/JPY is more likely to […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: Himino signals hawkish shift – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the Japanese Yen reaction to Deputy Governor Himino’s speech was limited, even as his comments aligned with market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. The BoJ is seen shifting toward a faster pace of tightening, with FX developments increasingly central to its inflation outlook, while Jackson Hole […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
ING, Institutional
Australian Dollar: RBA hold view caps near-term upside against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the only G10 currency gaining this week as hotter July inflation and strong household spending fuel hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations. ING’s macro team still favours a prolonged RBA hold, expecting benign inflation and a steady Fed to reduce urgency, with AUD/USD targeted […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
Polish Zloty: Import pass-through risks challenge cuts – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Euro strength is amplifying import price pass-through risks for Poland, with EUR/PLN gains feeding into higher import prices. The Monetary Policy Council’s guidance of unchanged rates contrasts with market pricing for a return above 4%. Yu sees Poland as facing the clearest hawkish risk in Central and Eastern Europe, making […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
ING, Institutional
US Dollar: Warsh speech keeps markets cautious – ING
ING strategist Francesco Pesole sees recent United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data as consistent with disinflation but too gradual to force Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes this year. Pesole still expects the Fed to hold rates on 16 September and anticipate a weaker Dollar, but warns that hawkish market pricing and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Brazilian Real: Rate cuts may support BRL against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists observe that the Brazilian Real (BRL) largely ignored softer inflation data, which still supports a Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) rate cut in September followed by a pause into elections. A broader easing cycle could attract bond inflows and support the BRL, with USD/BRL expected to remain in a narrow range and […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago