Institutional
Institutional, Market Analysis
Week Ahead – Aug 31st
Global markets are underpinned by long-term interest rates, which remained elevated at the turn of September amid high energy prices, ample AI-related corporate debt issuance, and wide budget deficits against signs of resilient economic growth. Economic data from the US will be centered on the labor market as FOMC members note the US is at […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
European Central Bank: September hike seen with energy risks – Nomura
Nomura’s Euro area team expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting, citing higher HICP inflation and resilient growth. They highlight hawkish comments from ECB officials and note that Brent and Dutch TTF price dynamics could shape additional tightening risks into December 2026. Hawkish officials and […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
British Pound: Month-end rebalancing and UK policy mix – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that month-end rebalancing flows leave the British Pound (GBP) vulnerable, with GBP seen as particularly exposed after strong performance and stretched GBP/USD levels. United Kingdom (UK) assets react to Chancellor Healey’s emphasis on fiscal discipline under the Labour government, while business confidence improves and pricing intentions ease, shaping expectations for the Pound and […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
British Pound: Energy-driven inflation risks support GBP against US Dollar – MUFG
MUFG highlights that rising European natural gas prices are reviving inflation risks, which could push the Bank of England toward another rate hike and underpin the Pound. While crude Oil remains contained, UK natural gas futures have surged, and the bank notes that this divergence in energy dynamics may support both the Euro and Pound against peers. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
Japanese Yen: Weak currency and cheap burgers – Nordea
Nordea’s Helge J. Pedersen argues that the Japanese Yen appears significantly undervalued versus the Dollar on both OECD purchasing power parity estimates and The Economist’s Big Mac Index. Despite Japan’s strong trade and current account surpluses suggesting room for Yen appreciation, persistently low Japanese interest rates versus the US continue to weigh on JPY and limit sustained […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
Canadian Dollar: Trade war clouds Q2 GDP rebound – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is trading just above its 200‑day moving average near 1.3840 as Canada’s Q2 GDP is expected to rebound strongly, with real GDP seen rising 3.4% SAAR versus a slight Q1 contraction. However, Haddad warns a worsening US–Canada trade war could cut the rebound short and sees current Bank of […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional, Technical Analysis
“Anything else would likely put the Japanese Yen under significant pressure”: Commerzbank on why BoJ should hike rates
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is holding within a narrow trading range against the US Dollar (USD) at around 159.35, but pressures are rising following an acceleration in Tokyo inflation data. With Tokyo headline CPI reaching 1.9% in August and service sector price gains hitting nearly a one-year high, market odds for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
DBS, Institutional
Indian Rupee: GDP data to show resilience – DBS
DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect India’s 1QFY27 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to confirm that the economy has weathered geopolitical disruptions better than initially feared. They note stronger consumption gauges, improving production, and ongoing support from services and exports, even as muted wealth effects, soft fuel demand and higher energy costs weigh […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, OCBC
Silver: Consolidation near resistance as positioning builds – OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong describes Silver as constructive with room for participation to build, as ETF holdings and managed-money positioning rise from light levels. Technical bias is mildly bullish, but momentum is fading near the 70.60–72 resistance band. A decisive break higher, likely requiring softer yields and a weaker Dollar, could open a move towards 80.30. Mildly bullish […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Warsh speech risks asymmetric USD reaction – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes the US Dollar has stabilized after last week’s setback, with Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech seen as the next key test. Baur expects little in terms of forward guidance on a September rate hike but highlights potential discussion of changing the Fed’s inflation measure away from the PCE deflator, which could […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago