Institutional
ING, Institutional
US Dollar: Policy risks keep downside bias – ING
ING’s Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky note the Dollar starts the week soft as markets await US policy signals from the White House. Sanctions on Iran, renewed US-Canada trade tensions and possible fiscal consolidation are in focus, alongside US core PCE and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. They see scope for further Dollar […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Euro: Range consolidation against US Dollar as growth gap narrows – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes EUR/USD has retraced half of its drop from above 1.20 to 1.1325 and is now stuck in a range as markets await fresh US data. He highlights that 2026 US growth forecasts have been revised down to 2.1%, while Eurozone forecasts were raised to 0.8%, with relative rates tracking relative growth expectations. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Canadian Dollar: Trade war escalation threatens recent strength – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) reaction to the new US tariffs on USD 20bn of Canadian exports will hinge on escalation risks rather than the initial measures. CAD has underperformed in G10 after talks broke down, and Halpenny warns that tit-for-tat tariffs and fading support from higher Oil could intensify CAD downside […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
Australian Dollar: Cooling inflation but carry remains supportive – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) to ease, with headline and trimmed mean inflation drifting lower, in line with softer labor conditions and wage growth. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes and Q2 capex will shape rate expectations, with futures still pricing a 60% chance of one more […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
CEE FX: Koruna leads as policy diverges – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reviews recent CEE FX performance, noting that the euro’s strength above 1.17 has supported high-beta PLN and HUF, while the Czech koruna has also gained despite its lower beta profile. He highlights the divergence in regional monetary policy, with the CNB expected to tighten further while the MNB remains in an easing […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
Hungarian Forint: MNB easing and HUF carry prospects – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu describes Hungary as a constructive story within EMEA, with post-election re-rating and scope for continued MNB easing. Yu notes corporate flows are strong, spreads still compensatory, and argues Hungarian Forint (HUF) can make a stronger case as a carry currency if inflation stays contained, even as power and energy constraints justify caution […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, TDS
Canadian Dollar: GDP rebound supports Loonie – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence expect Canada’s Q2 National Accounts to show a sharp rebound in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, driven by stronger exports and solid services activity. They forecast expenditure-based GDP at 3.5% annualized and industry-level GDP up 0.3% m/m, with July flash data likely keeping Q3 GDP above potential […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, OCBC
US Dollar: Debasement narrative caps upside – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the US Treasury’s expanded long-end buyback programme has revived market fears of Dollar debasement, driving a weaker USD, stronger Gold and higher breakevens. They stress this is not classic QE, but highlight rising US policy uncertainty, questions over Fed independence and Jackson Hole risks as key […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Gold: Breakout sustains upward momentum – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts highlight that Gold has broken out of a small base formation, reclaimed its 200‑DMA and is enjoying an extended rebound. The move is framed within broader Dollar debasement concerns and rising term premium. The bank flags successive upside hurdles at $4,730/$4,770 and the April peak at $4,890, with the 200‑DMA near $4,510 […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
Bank of Canada: Tariff deal unlikely to accelerate hikes – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Robert Both expects the Bank of Canada to remain cautious even if a tariff agreement is reached. The Bank wants more data on how lower tariffs affect exports and output, with key trade figures not available until November. TD forecasts the BoC staying on hold through 2026 and delivering its first rate hike […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago