Societe Generale
Institutional, Societe Generale
South African Rand: Gains against US Dollar at risk – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analyzes USD/ZAR after its rebound above the 200-DMA, with an interim high near 16.75 and a current pullback towards 16.37. The bank stresses the importance of the pair holding above the 200-DMA, noting two failed attempts earlier this year. It highlights downside risks towards 16.27 and 16.15 if 16.37 breaks. Rebound faces crucial […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Indian Rupee: Policy support and yield reversal – Societe Generale
Societe Generale highlights that the Reserve Bank of India has taken proactive steps to support the Indian Rupee, deploying multiple FX-related measures and bond operations. The report notes a risk-off driven reversal in US yields that benefits the Rupee, alongside higher CPI and WPI inflation and a wider trade deficit. The tone is cautiously constructive […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 week ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Indian Rupee: RBI measures support INR against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Santosh Ejanthkar and Tanmay Purohit highlight that USD/INR fell by more than 1% after the RBI unveiled a broad FX-support package, including a dedicated oil import window and tighter restrictions on corporate hedging. They expect an initial INR rebound and lower forward premiums, but caution that the medium-term outlook will depend on oil […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Oil: Crude forecasts signal inflation surprises ahead – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s analysts use their Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Diesel price forecasts to derive forward-looking inflation surprises for the US and Eurozone. By linking spreads, inventories and refining cracks, they construct 12‑month crude and Diesel paths and show that, if these are accurate, Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprises can be estimated well ahead […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
CEE FX: Hawkish holds and cautious easing path – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists expect a hawkish hold from Poland’s National Bank of Poland (NBP) at 3.75% and no change from Romania’s central bank NBR at 6.50%, as inflation and political uncertainty constrain policy flexibility. In Poland, firmer inflation keeps the prospect of further tightening alive, while in Romania, elevated price pressures and uncertainty over government […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Fed path shaped by firm inflation – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Jan Groen reviews August US inflation and growth data, highlighting that Core PCE came in softer than expected but underlying price pressures in services remain firm. Benchmark revisions lowered measured inflation but still show it above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target. Stronger consumption and GDP revisions suggest the US economy entered […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
South Korean Won: Export strength supports KRW – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes the Korean Won has been one of Asia’s standout performers, with USD/KRW slipping from around 1,390 to 1,360 as local exporters sold Dollars ahead of the Chuseok holiday. The bank highlights a supportive backdrop, citing South Korea’s strong export engine and a sharp early-September surge in exports, driven by AI-related shipments alongside […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Chinese Yuan: PBoC keeps yuan broadly stable – Societe Generale
Societe Generale describes a limited impact from President Xi’s US visit, with no new tariff cuts or AI dialogue mechanism agreed as the trade truce was only extended to January. USD/CNY rebounded after briefly dipping below 6.70, helped by higher US Treasury yields and a modest easing of PBoC control, while the central bank reiterated […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Mexican Peso: Downward momentum returns after 200-DMA break – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts, including Kenneth Broux, note that USD/MXN has broken above a multi-month descending trend line and reclaimed its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2025. They see scope for a broader uptrend if the pair holds above 17.40/17.35, with hurdles at the June peak near 17.68 and projections around 17.80. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Swiss Franc: SNB intervention bias dialed down – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note that EUR/CHF has rebounded about 0.3% after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left rates at 0.0% but softened its FX intervention language. The bank now signals it is only willing to be active as necessary, with inflation forecasts around 0.7–0.8% through 2028 and a widening rate differential versus the Eurozone expected […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago