Societe Generale
Institutional, Societe Generale
US 10-year yield: Up move eyes 5.36% – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s rates team notes a sharp advance in 10‑year US Treasuries after defending key trendline support near 4.81%, with yields now challenging the 50‑day moving average. The bank sees scope for consolidation between 4.81% and 5.05%, but if resistance breaks, a larger move towards the 5.16%–5.18% gap and October’s high around 5.36% is envisaged. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 17 hours ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
EUR/USD: Slippery slope if 1.10 breaks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights renewed Dollar strength pressuring EUR/USD towards the key 1.10 level, with the pair already below its 200-week moving average and challenging the May 2025 trough. Euro pressured by rates and politics “EUR/USD down 10 big figures since January and in trouble after erasing 200wma (1.1110).” “Throw in the uncertainty relating […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 18 hours ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
USD/JPY: Intervention risk near 160 – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes USD/JPY trading just below 160, with Japan’s Ministry of Finance warning markets not to forget FX intervention risks as yields and Dollar strength persist. The pair has reached its highest level since early September before meeting resistance near 160, with clearly defined support and resistance levels and sizeable option strikes that could […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 18 hours ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
US inflation: Core PCE range guidance – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Jan Groen analyzes October US inflation data, noting that October core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, surprising to the upside. He estimates PCE housing inflation at 0.28% and core-goods inflation around 0.25%. Depending on super-core PCE dynamics, core PCE inflation is projected in a 0.27%-0.33% range, with the October PPI release expected to refine […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 days ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
British Pound: Recovery extends toward range highs – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists highlight that GBP/USD has rebounded from the lower boundary of its multi‑month range and reclaimed its 200‑DMA, suggesting scope for further recovery. The bank sees resistance near 1.3555/1.3600 and 1.3660, with first support at the 200‑DMA around 1.3420. Overnight, Cable consolidated near a seven‑week high ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 week ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Swedish Krona: Riksbank hikes support SEK – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes the Riksbank’s 25bp hike to 2.0% and guidance for further tightening, keeping policy accommodative versus neutral. Updated projections imply more hikes through 2028, narrowing the differential with the ECB. Despite negative carry, SEK has outperformed, with EUR/SEK retreating to its 200-day moving average after September’s peak and further downside risk if support […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 week ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Natural gas: Shipping channel drives gas volatility – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that LNG shipping conditions are central to how maritime risk transmits into natural gas volatility. As Europe relies more on LNG imports and the United States on exports, freight costs, inventory adequacy and security of LNG trade routes become key drivers of implied volatility, especially during […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 week ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
British Pound: Budget relief and BoE support for Sterling – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts see scope for a relief rally in GBP/USD following the UK Budget and ahead of a potentially hawkish Bank of England hike. They argue the UK is on track for the fastest fiscal consolidation in the G7, which could eventually support Gilts and Sterling. Key cable levels are identified at 1.3250 support […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Brazilian Real: Volatility risks after Lula win – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish analyzes Brazil after Lula’s surprise re-election over Flávio Bolsonaro. The note highlights likely pressure on Brazilian assets as markets unwind positions built on a Bolsonaro victory. It stresses challenging governability under a more conservative Congress, gradual fiscal consolidation, unresolved debt concerns and a higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook, including a shallower easing path […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
South African Rand: Gains against US Dollar at risk – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analyzes USD/ZAR after its rebound above the 200-DMA, with an interim high near 16.75 and a current pullback towards 16.37. The bank stresses the importance of the pair holding above the 200-DMA, noting two failed attempts earlier this year. It highlights downside risks towards 16.27 and 16.15 if 16.37 breaks. Rebound faces crucial […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago