Societe Generale’s rates team notes a sharp advance in 10‑year US Treasuries after defending key trendline support near 4.81%, with yields now challenging the 50‑day moving average. The bank sees scope for consolidation between 4.81% and 5.05%, but if resistance breaks, a larger move towards the 5.16%–5.18% gap and October’s high around 5.36% is envisaged.

Treasury yields extend post‑CPI gains

“10y UST has staged a sharp up move after defending the confluence of a multi-month ascending trend line and the January 2025 peak near 4.81%. It is now challenging the 50-DMA.”

“A short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out within the limits of 4.81% and the recent pivot high of 5.05%. If this hurdle is overcome, 10y UST could embark on a larger up move towards the recent down gap at 5.16%/5.18%, followed by the October high near 5.36%.”

“US: 10y IRS consolidates post CPI gains around 4.60% as cash trading resumes. Support 4.53%, resistance 4.66%.”