OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that USD/IDR has pulled back as a softer Dollar and lower UST yields support the Indonesian Rupiah. He highlights Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti’s emphasis on a stability-first approach, prioritizing Rupiah and macro stability while still supporting growth. Wong sees near-term support for IDR but flags elevated Oil prices and high global yields as constraints.

Stability-first stance supports Rupiah

“Speaking at the Sarasehan 100 Ekonom Indonesia in Jakarta on Thursday, BI Governor Destry Damayanti reinforced the stability-first message she had set out earlier in the week, stressing that policy cannot be viewed solely through the domestic inflation lens given the “higher-for-longer” global rate environment and the need to keep Indonesian assets attractive to foreign investors.”

“Her remarks were consistent with earlier signals of policy continuity, with rupiah and macro stability remaining key priorities even as BI continues to support growth through its broader policy mix.”

“Together with the pullback in UST yields and softer USD, this should provide some near-term support to IDR, although elevated oil prices and still-high global yields remain constraints.”

“Immediate support at 17620 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). If broken, opens way for next support at 17444 (50% fibo). Resistance at 17710 (100 DMA), 17800 levels (21 DMA).”

“USD/IDR closed at 17660. Momentum on daily chart is flat while RSI fell.”