CommerzBank
CommerzBank, Institutional
Chinese Yuan: PBoC defends yuan narrative – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that the People’s Bank of China rejected claims the yuan is undervalued, linking export strength to industrial competitiveness rather than currency manipulation. The central bank will start reporting FX operations to the IMF from 2027, while reserves slipped to USD3.40tn. In FX, USD/CNY fell 30 pips to 6.70, with USD/CNH little […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Taiwan Dollar: Trade strength but losses capped against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts note Taiwan’s September trade surplus hit a record USD23.6bn, with exports surging 60.9% year-on-year on strong AI-related demand. The Central Bank of the Republic of China may lean more hawkish if inflation’s uptrend persists. USD/TWD rose 0.3% to 31.90, but the pair’s upside may be limited as the central bank disclosed FX intervention […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Fiscal concerns limit recovery against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke notes that concerns over France’s national debt have recently weighed on the Euro, reviving memories of the earlier sovereign debt crisis. She argues fiscal consolidation in some Euro zone countries is both difficult and unpopular, so credibility will be hard to restore quickly. With the resilient US economy and limited new data, […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Brazilian Real: Bolsonaro boost faces parliamentary constraints – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke notes the Brazilian Real (BRL) strengthened about 4% as USD/BRL fell from 5.2 to 5 on F. Bolsonaro’s election lead. He cautions that despite gains by Partido Liberal and other conservatives, Bolsonaro would still lack outright majorities and remain reliant on alliances. Market-friendly reforms and Real-positive policies therefore face political hurdles, tempering […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Turkish Lira: CPI surprise seen enabling rate cut – Commerzbank
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank reports Turkey’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell below 30% year-on-year, with softer month-on-month gains, creating scope for the central bank to cut rates by 100 bps. He warns the Lira remains heavily managed by official intervention and cannot benefit sustainably. A rate cut and possible re-acceleration of inflation later this […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Political risks weigh on common currency – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that growing concerns over France’s public debt sustainability are now weighing on the Euro (EUR), after previously leaving the currency largely untouched despite bond market turmoil. She highlights the risk that the European Central Bank (ECB) could be forced into a more accommodative stance and notes that German Bunds’ safe-haven […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Mexican Peso: Weakness and USMCA risk repricing – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s research notes that the Mexican Peso (MXN) had a disappointing September, losing over 4% against the Dollar since late month. Standard macro drivers and Banxico policy guidance explain only part of the move, with positioning and renewed USMCA-related concerns likely contributing to a Mexico-specific risk premium, even as analysts expect sentiment and the US […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Political stress and limited FX reaction – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Tatha Ghose examine how Euro political risks, especially in France, Spain and Italy, transmit to EUR/USD and a trade-weighted Euro. Their study since 2010 finds the Euro reacts more when several Euro area countries and banks are under stress, with current French spread widening seen as a historically normal episode. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Stock-driven flows raise vulnerability – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the US current account deficit remains large at about 3% of GDP and increasingly relies on foreign inflows into US stocks rather than bonds. He stresses that equity flows are far more volatile, tying support for the US Dollar more closely to US stock market performance, household wealth, and private […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Australian Dollar: RBA’s hawkish hike caps upside – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.6%, the highest level in about 15 years, and struck a notably hawkish tone. Despite signaling that rates could rise further as inflation broadens beyond energy, the Australian Dollar’s initial gains faded, with markets already pricing nearly […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago