CommerzBank
CommerzBank, Institutional
Polish Zloty: Rate cuts seen off table through year-end – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% and sees the key question as whether the MPC formally drops earlier dovish language. With fuel-driven inflation pressures and a weaker Zloty, he argues that Glapinski’s prior hints at imminent cuts are obsolete and that rate reductions are unlikely before year-end, which could modestly support […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Volatility eyed into late week – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke notes that EUR/USD is likely to stay relatively quiet until later in the week, when the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US inflation data could trigger stronger moves. She highlights that market expectations for further ECB rate hikes may need to be revised lower, potentially weighing on the Euro, while stronger […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Volatility risks around Fed decision – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that the latest US labour market report does not materially alter expectations for a September Fed rate move, leaving August US inflation as the key driver. Market pricing of roughly a 60% probability for a hike suggests divided positioning, with potential for significant USD volatility around the Fed meeting depending on how […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Malaysian Ringgit: BNM hawkish tilt supports MYR – Commerzbank
Commerzbank highlights that Bank Negara Malaysia kept the OPR at 2.75% but shifted to a more hawkish bias, removing language that policy is “appropriate” and signalling vigilance on cost pressures. Strong growth and benign inflation allow patience, yet the bank appears to prepare markets for a possible hike later this year or early 2027, with […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Chinese Yuan: Services PMI rebound keeps PBoC cautious – Commerzbank
Commerzbank says China’s August Services PMI rebound highlights some resilience in private-sector activity, but weak retail sales, soft inflation and higher unemployment still point to fragile domestic demand. The stronger PMI reduces the urgency for immediate PBoC easing, while leaving room for further support if growth weakens into year-end. Fragile demand keeps PBoC easing options […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Japanese Yen: Policy signals support JPY against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that recent interventions by Japanese authorities and the US Treasury have largely lost impact, with the Japanese Yen giving back gains against the Dollar and US yields returning to prior levels. She highlights unclear policy objectives and credibility issues, noting that fiscal concerns remain a headwind for the US Dollar […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Japanese Yen: BoJ meeting to decide JPY path – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen as USD/JPY repeatedly breaks above 160 despite record FX interventions. He argues that expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, rather than intervention, now drive the currency, with recent hawkish comments boosting speculation. Pfister warns that failure to deliver a hike at the upcoming BoJ […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Polish Zloty: NBP language turns cautious after FX pressure – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski used G20 remarks to shift towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts. With August CPI surprising hawkishly and the Zloty underperforming CE3 peers, the bank is seen on the back foot. Ghose expects unchanged rates on 9 September but […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: August inflation key to September Fed decision – Commerzbank
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that markets now price nearly a 70% chance of a September Fed hike after Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech, but stresses upcoming US inflation data will be decisive. She downplays the jobs report as a linchpin and questions how long the Dollar can benefit from a potential rate hike amid renewed political […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Proactive ECB seen as supportive – Commerzbank
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that several central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have already raised rates following the inflation shock linked to the Iran conflict. He stresses that markets reward central banks that react proactively rather than label shocks as transitory. For the Euro, he views the ECB’s more forceful stance as a positive […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago