CommerzBank
CommerzBank, Institutional
Taiwan Dollar: CBC holds rates but flags inflation risks – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Henry Hao report that Taiwan’s CBC kept its policy rate at 2.0% for a tenth straight meeting, signalling a patient stance. The bank slightly raised its 2026 inflation and GDP forecasts, sees strong growth from AI-related semiconductor demand, and suggests policy could stay unchanged in December but start hiking in Q1 […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Indian Rupee: RBI liquidity withdrawal tempers risks – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s India analysis shows the Reserve Bank of India stepping up liquidity absorption via INR1trn of government bond sales and continued VRRR operations, FX swaps and open-market actions. The measures aim to align money-market rates with the 5.25% policy rate. Despite higher short- and intermediate-term yields, USD/INR stayed near 95.96 as RBI intervened to curb volatility. Bond […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank weighs inflation and growth – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke highlights uncertainty over whether Norges Bank will hike in September or wait until December. Inflation remains above target despite a recent downside surprise, while growth is described as close to normal. The regional network survey is seen as decisive, with Oil prices and Middle East developments still the main drivers for NOK. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Indian Rupee: Inflation and trade reshape INR – Commerzbank
Commerzbank economists note India’s August CPI rose to 4.8% year-on-year, above the RBI midpoint but still below the central bank’s full-year forecast. They see a more finely balanced policy outlook, with a likely hawkish hold at 5.25%. A narrower trade deficit and strong capital inflows should support INR, even as higher Oil prices pressure inflation and […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Polish Zloty: NBP turns cautious as inflation rises – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke reports that the Polish central bank kept its key rate at 3.75%, while Governor Glapiński signalled no cuts until year-end after previously sounding dovish. With rate cuts now seen as unrealistic given higher inflation and geopolitical risks, the completed policy U-turn should underpin the Zloty, though future moves will depend on whether […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Difficult path for gains against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that markets fully price today’s ECB rate hike and see around 85 basis points of additional tightening by mid-2027, heavily driven by Oil dynamics. He argues this leaves little room for the ECB to meet expectations, making a clearly hawkish surprise necessary for Euro strength, while any disappointment could weigh on […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Polish Zloty: Rate cuts seen off table through year-end – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% and sees the key question as whether the MPC formally drops earlier dovish language. With fuel-driven inflation pressures and a weaker Zloty, he argues that Glapinski’s prior hints at imminent cuts are obsolete and that rate reductions are unlikely before year-end, which could modestly support […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Volatility eyed into late week – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke notes that EUR/USD is likely to stay relatively quiet until later in the week, when the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US inflation data could trigger stronger moves. She highlights that market expectations for further ECB rate hikes may need to be revised lower, potentially weighing on the Euro, while stronger […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Volatility risks around Fed decision – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that the latest US labour market report does not materially alter expectations for a September Fed rate move, leaving August US inflation as the key driver. Market pricing of roughly a 60% probability for a hike suggests divided positioning, with potential for significant USD volatility around the Fed meeting depending on how […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Malaysian Ringgit: BNM hawkish tilt supports MYR – Commerzbank
Commerzbank highlights that Bank Negara Malaysia kept the OPR at 2.75% but shifted to a more hawkish bias, removing language that policy is “appropriate” and signalling vigilance on cost pressures. Strong growth and benign inflation allow patience, yet the bank appears to prepare markets for a possible hike later this year or early 2027, with […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago