CommerzBank
CommerzBank, Institutional
Chinese Yuan: Services PMI rebound keeps PBoC cautious – Commerzbank
Commerzbank says China’s August Services PMI rebound highlights some resilience in private-sector activity, but weak retail sales, soft inflation and higher unemployment still point to fragile domestic demand. The stronger PMI reduces the urgency for immediate PBoC easing, while leaving room for further support if growth weakens into year-end. Fragile demand keeps PBoC easing options […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Japanese Yen: Policy signals support JPY against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that recent interventions by Japanese authorities and the US Treasury have largely lost impact, with the Japanese Yen giving back gains against the Dollar and US yields returning to prior levels. She highlights unclear policy objectives and credibility issues, noting that fiscal concerns remain a headwind for the US Dollar […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Japanese Yen: BoJ meeting to decide JPY path – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen as USD/JPY repeatedly breaks above 160 despite record FX interventions. He argues that expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, rather than intervention, now drive the currency, with recent hawkish comments boosting speculation. Pfister warns that failure to deliver a hike at the upcoming BoJ […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Polish Zloty: NBP language turns cautious after FX pressure – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski used G20 remarks to shift towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts. With August CPI surprising hawkishly and the Zloty underperforming CE3 peers, the bank is seen on the back foot. Ghose expects unchanged rates on 9 September but […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: August inflation key to September Fed decision – Commerzbank
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that markets now price nearly a 70% chance of a September Fed hike after Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech, but stresses upcoming US inflation data will be decisive. She downplays the jobs report as a linchpin and questions how long the Dollar can benefit from a potential rate hike amid renewed political […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Proactive ECB seen as supportive – Commerzbank
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that several central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have already raised rates following the inflation shock linked to the Iran conflict. He stresses that markets reward central banks that react proactively rather than label shocks as transitory. For the Euro, he views the ECB’s more forceful stance as a positive […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Chinese Yuan: Undervaluation and export gains questioned – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur challenges recent internal analysis on CNY undervaluation and exports, arguing that China’s exchange-rate management and gold purchases point to deliberate weakening. He highlights China’s outsized export and trade-surplus gains since 2019 and notes that a roughly 20% real exchange-rate advantage is unlikely to be neutral for global trade flows. Exchange-rate policy and export dominance […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional, Technical Analysis
“Anything else would likely put the Japanese Yen under significant pressure”: Commerzbank on why BoJ should hike rates
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is holding within a narrow trading range against the US Dollar (USD) at around 159.35, but pressures are rising following an acceleration in Tokyo inflation data. With Tokyo headline CPI reaching 1.9% in August and service sector price gains hitting nearly a one-year high, market odds for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Warsh speech risks asymmetric USD reaction – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes the US Dollar has stabilized after last week’s setback, with Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech seen as the next key test. Baur expects little in terms of forward guidance on a September rate hike but highlights potential discussion of changing the Fed’s inflation measure away from the PCE deflator, which could […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Turkish Lira: Inflation expectations outpace CBRT forecasts – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose revisits Turkish inflation dynamics, noting seasonally-adjusted price momentum above 2% m/m and warning that disinflation is unlikely. Market participants have raised year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations to 29.5% y/y, above Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) 28% forecast. Ghose argues CBRT repeatedly chases private forecasts, undermining credibility, while persistent […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago