Institutional
CommerzBank, Institutional
Mexican Peso: Weakness and USMCA risk repricing – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s research notes that the Mexican Peso (MXN) had a disappointing September, losing over 4% against the Dollar since late month. Standard macro drivers and Banxico policy guidance explain only part of the move, with positioning and renewed USMCA-related concerns likely contributing to a Mexico-specific risk premium, even as analysts expect sentiment and the US […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
Institutional, Rabobank
US Treasuries: Cold War yield parallels – Rabobank
Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets notes that US Treasury yields ended Q3 sharply higher, with 10-year and 30-year yields reaching levels last seen in 2002. The report highlights concerns from major market commentators about bonds and equities, and warns that another phase shift higher in long-dated US yields could take them into ranges seen […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Political stress and limited FX reaction – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Tatha Ghose examine how Euro political risks, especially in France, Spain and Italy, transmit to EUR/USD and a trade-weighted Euro. Their study since 2010 finds the Euro reacts more when several Euro area countries and banks are under stress, with current French spread widening seen as a historically normal episode. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Fed path shaped by firm inflation – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Jan Groen reviews August US inflation and growth data, highlighting that Core PCE came in softer than expected but underlying price pressures in services remain firm. Benchmark revisions lowered measured inflation but still show it above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target. Stronger consumption and GDP revisions suggest the US economy entered […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
Institutional, TDS
US Dollar: Fed outlook supported by robust data – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir assess US PCE and GDP revisions as broadly supportive for a firm US macro backdrop and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve stance. They highlight robust US growth, sticky inflation and upgraded GDP forecasts, arguing that lower inflation revisions do not materially alter the narrative for the US Dollar […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 days ago
Institutional, Market Analysis
UK Gilts are in recovery mode as we wait for Burnham’s speech
Key takeaways Stock indices in Europe are pushing higher on Tuesday, although the oil price is still rising. The Brent crude continuous contract is up by 1% this morning, but it has backed away from the key $100 level that it reached earlier, which is boosting the market mood. Sovereign bond yields are in recovery […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 5 days ago
ING, Institutional
EUR/USD: Lagarde’s dovish tilt weighs on Euro – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING says EUR/USD downside risks have increased after dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, which widened SOFR-ESTR spreads and tempered expectations for an October ECB hike. Lagarde comments pressure Euro outlook “The euro held up relatively well yesterday considering the slew of dovish-leaning comments by ECB President Lagarde, […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 5 days ago
ING, Institutional
AUD/USD: RBA hike fails to lift Aussie – MUFG
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Australian Dollar has slipped back below 0.7000 against the US Dollar, testing the 200-day moving average near 0.7030. Despite the RBA’s fourth rate hike this year to 4.60% and its commitment to tackle persistent inflation, Governor Bullock’s cautious remarks on whether policy is restrictive enough have tempered expectations […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 5 days ago
Institutional
S&P 500: Higher yields pressure equities – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid notes that rising US yields and Oil prices are weighing on equities. The S&P 500 fell nearly 0.8%, led by larger declines in the Magnificent 7, while defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare posted modest gains. Risk assets react to rate repricing “Moreover, yesterday started to see growing […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 5 days ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Stock-driven flows raise vulnerability – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the US current account deficit remains large at about 3% of GDP and increasingly relies on foreign inflows into US stocks rather than bonds. He stresses that equity flows are far more volatile, tying support for the US Dollar more closely to US stock market performance, household wealth, and private […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 5 days ago