Societe Generale highlights that the Reserve Bank of India has taken proactive steps to support the Indian Rupee, deploying multiple FX-related measures and bond operations. The report notes a risk-off driven reversal in US yields that benefits the Rupee, alongside higher CPI and WPI inflation and a wider trade deficit. The tone is cautiously constructive […]
MUFG’s Michael Wan reports that Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Junko Koeda has strengthened the case for further policy tightening. Koeda emphasized upside price risks, still-accommodative financial conditions and judged the neutral rate to be well above 1%. MUFG sees her remarks as consistent with continued policy normalization, with swaps implying a high probability […]
Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team observes that equities traded mostly lower, with defensives outperforming cyclicals and the SOX declining for a fifth session amid an ongoing AI-related rotation and mixed US bank earnings. However, several indices remain close to all-time highs, which the team interprets as sector rotation rather than broad deleveraging, given a resilient […]
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that despite stronger-than-expected US inflation, retail sales and producer prices, the Dollar and EUR/USD have largely reverted to pre-data levels. She argues that without a shift toward more overall Federal Reserve tightening, US rate expectations and the US–Euro area differential stay broadly sideways, leaving recent EUR/USD weakness driven more by […]
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil remains supported, with ICE Brent trading comfortably above $100/bbl as Middle East tensions and concerns over flows through the Strait of Hormuz sustain a risk premium. They highlight IEA members’ plan to release remaining emergency reserves and discuss US inventory draws and potential US dissatisfaction […]
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has rebounded strongly from 1.1112 to close at 1.1218, more than reversing the prior day’s losses. Short-term momentum looks overextended, with the pair expected to trade between 1.1180 and 1.1240 intraday. On a 1–3 week view, EUR is now seen in a […]
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank explains that Norges Bank’s September decision to bring forward a rate hike was driven by persistent inflation above its 2% target. With headline inflation at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, the bank now signals policy will stay elevated for longer and another hike cannot be ruled out, a stance she sees […]
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has quickly surrendered gains made after the stronger US CPI report, with the Dollar Index retreating from a year-to-date high near 102.95 back towards 102.00. He links the move to an unwind of AI-related trades and risk-off conditions, but stresses that firm inflation data and Fed expectations still […]
Deutsche Bank analysts report that US equities sold off as a strong US CPI print and mounting fears around the AI trade weighed on risk assets. The S&P 500 posted its worst performance since July, with futures pointing to further declines. Credit spreads widened and AI-exposed names, including semiconductors, saw pronounced weakness, reinforcing a cautious […]
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights slightly higher final Polish inflation and unchanged core forecasts, with most Monetary Policy Committee members signalling that December is the earliest for rate-hike discussions. He argues delayed National Bank of Poland tightening, a firmer Dollar and record gas prices leave the Zloty vulnerable, and reiterates expectations for EUR/PLN to return to […]