Institutional
ING, Institutional
CEE FX: Hawkish repricing supports regional currencies – ING
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky reports that Polish inflation surprised to 3.4% on higher fuel prices, while food prices fell, and a busy data calendar looms for Central and Eastern Europe. He notes regional markets have shifted back into hawkish mode after recent Federal Reserve comments and geopolitical tensions, with Czech and Polish curves pricing multiple hikes, which should limit […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
Indian Rupee: RBI tightening path seen shallow – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered strategists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deliver a total of 50bps of repo rate hikes in FY27, split between October and December 2026, citing resilient activity and hawkish August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes. They highlight upside risks if inflation surprises higher, but still see […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Proactive ECB seen as supportive – Commerzbank
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that several central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have already raised rates following the inflation shock linked to the Iran conflict. He stresses that markets reward central banks that react proactively rather than label shocks as transitory. For the Euro, he views the ECB’s more forceful stance as a positive […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Market Analysis
Dismal German Retail Sales Data. Is the Economy Losing Momentum?
German retail sales disappointed sharply in July, falling 3.4% m/m versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. This was a significant downside surprise, pointing to weaker private consumption. Moreover, Destatis revised the June reading to 0.0% m/m from the previously reported 0.7% decline. The weak data are not encouraging for equities and the valuations of companies […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations shape FX – MUFG
Michael Wan at MUFG notes continued dispersion in Asia FX, with USD/JPY trading just below 160. NHK reports US officials urging Japan to raise interest rates, while markets already price a 92% chance of a September Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike. Communication on the full path of rate increases is seen as key for Japanese […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, OCBC
Brent Oil: Geopolitics delay supply recovery – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong raise their end-2026 Brent forecast to USD 80/bbl from USD 75/bbl as Middle East supply disruptions prove more prolonged. They note falling inventories, rising transport costs and emerging diesel shortages as key constraints. Brent has traded above USD 90/bbl on escalating US–Iran tensions and persistent risks around […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Deutsche Bank, Institutional
Equities: Geopolitics and yields pressure stocks – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes that global equities ended August on a softer footing as escalating US-Iran tensions and a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh weighed on risk sentiment. The S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 declined on Monday, while tech stocks proved relatively resilient as semiconductor shares stabilized. The cautious tone carried into Asian […]
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, UOB
British Pound: Downside risk focuses on 1.3480 against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD remains in a short-term range after last week’s sharp drop, with intraday trade expected between 1.3535 and 1.3570. Despite deeply oversold conditions limiting sustained declines, they still see downside risk toward 1.3480 over the next 1–3 weeks, as long as the British […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Dankse Bank, Institutional
Euro: Modest rebound against US Dollar as yields rise – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD has modestly rebounded above 1.16 following recent Dollar strength after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. They also highlight contained underlying inflation pressures across major euro-area economies, while markets await the region’s flash inflation, unemployment and final manufacturing PMI data. Pair recovers above 1.16 level “In the euro area, we […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Technical Analysis
September risks rise: rate hikes, oil prices and bond yields, plus, the end of an era for Apple
Key takeaways Stocks are pointing to a lower open in Europe later today, as the oil price continues to climb, and bond yields also jump. The Brent crude oil price is back above $91 per barrel, as tensions between Iran and the US heat up. A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, which […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago