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Danske Research Team highlights that Fed Governor Waller is inclined to keepย ratesย unchanged in September if August inflation shows further progress, but would consider a hike if inflation comes in hot. His remarks pushed September hike pricing closer to a 50/50 call and weighed slightly on the Dollar, while strong ISM services data and the upcoming […]
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices, including ICE Brent above US$95/bbl, remain supported by heightened US-Iran tensions and robust Iraqi exports routed via the Strait of Hormuz. However, they highlight that if Hormuz flows remain uninterrupted and Saudi Arabiaโs unchanged official selling prices signal looser fundamentals, upward pressure on Oil […]
Global equity and bond markets are eagerly awaiting the week’s main event โ the publication of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for August. Yesterday’s session on Wall Street ended in positive territory following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled a readiness to hold or cut interest rates if incoming […]
Commerzbankโs Thu Lan Nguyen argues that recent interventions by Japanese authorities and the US Treasury have largely lost impact, with the Japanese Yen giving back gains against the Dollar and US yields returning to prior levels. She highlights unclear policy objectives and credibility issues, noting that fiscal concerns remain a headwind for the US Dollar […]
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Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the officials will closely monitoring bond markets with heightened urgency. Key quotes Interest rate shifts driven by multiple market factors. Closely monitoring bond markets with heightened urgency. No comment on specific levels. Will aim to gradually lower debt-to-GDP ratio. Have emphasized to global leaders our […]
BNYโs Geoff Yu notes that Eurozone assets remain supported by steady composite PMI readings and improving signs in German demand, while speculation over ECB leadership succession grows. He highlights Friedrich Merzโs upcoming meeting with ECB officials and questions surrounding Christine Lagardeโs tenure and a possible German candidate for the presidency. Leadership questions meet steady PMIs […]
Commerzbankโs Michael Pfister highlights renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen as USD/JPY repeatedly breaks above 160 despite record FX interventions. He argues that expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, rather than intervention, now drive the currency, with recent hawkish comments boosting speculation. Pfister warns that failure to deliver a hike at the upcoming BoJ […]
INGโs James Knightley argues Kevin Warshโs Jackson Hole speech has shifted the Federal Reserveโs reaction function toward a September rate hike, even though INGโs macro projections suggest the Fed could wait. The analysis highlights inflation above target, robust activity but pressured households, and concludes that a 25bp move is now more likely than a hold, […]
Brown Brothers Harrimanโs (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is softer mainly against the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, with Brent Oil nearing $100. Haddad expects the Dollar to stabilize in the near term except versus the Japanese Yen, and sees elevated Fed rate hike pricing into the September FOMC, but ultimately anticipates […]
