Institutional
BNY, Institutional
Federal Reserve: Hiking path constrained by supply shocks – BNY
John Velis at BNY Markets argues that current US inflation is being driven by non-rate-sensitive components of core PCE, limiting how effective further Federal Reserve tightening can be. He expects one more rate hike in December 2026 but questions whether all the hikes priced for 2027 will be delivered, given the nature of the inflation […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
UOB
Australian Dollar: Consolidation continues below resistance against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see AUD/USD consolidating around 0.7120 after a brief spike to 0.7140. Intraday price action is viewed as part of a 0.7105–0.7135 range. They still hold a negative 1–3 week stance, conditional on resistance at 0.7140, but acknowledge that the probability of a drop to 0.7050 has […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Market Analysis
UK borrowing is above target, again, as Brent gets back above $100
Key takeaways The UK’s public finance data for August made for more grim reading on the state of the UK’s public finances. The UK borrowed £18.3bn last month, up nearly 20% compared to a year ago, partly due to the impact of inflation. Borrowing in the financial year to August remains £8.1bn above the official […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: BoJ rate check limits yen downside – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen initially weakened sharply after the latest BoJ policy update, with USD/JPY briefly above 158.00 before retreating towards 157.00. Reports of a BoJ rate check signalled readiness to intervene, capping near-term Yen weakness as USD/JPY approaches 160.00. MUFG sees a “new phase” of policy consistent with rate hikes […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, OCBC
US Dollar: Post-FOMC gains face higher hurdle – OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has held a firmer tone after the FOMC’s 25 bp hike and a higher rate path, supported by elevated US Treasury yields. However, he stresses that further USD upside now likely requires another leg higher in yields or stronger US data, with key resistance around […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
ING, Institutional
Euro: Downside risks persist despite ECB hike call – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole explains that despite political noise in Germany and an additional ECB hike now expected in December, ING keeps its EUR/USD profile unchanged with a 1.160 year-end target. He sees similar front-end pricing for EUR and USD, expects dovish repricing on lower energy prices, but highlights mostly downside risks for EUR/USD this week, especially if […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Rabobank
Eurozone: Energy shock reshapes outlook – Rabobank
Rabobank strategists Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot highlight that sharply higher Oil and natural gas forecasts will lift headline Eurozone inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027. They now see inflation peaking around 4.4% year-on-year in early 2027, with core inflation only modestly higher, and expect sluggish disinflation to keep the ECB deposit rate […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
British Pound: Limited upside after hawkish BoE hold – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the British Pound (GBP) is only marginally firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) despite stronger-than-expected August retail sales. They argue Thursday’s hawkish Bank of England (BoE) hold may cap near-term gains, even as UK politics remain supportive with continued confidence in the government’s fiscal responsibility. Technically, the broader […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, OCBC
Taiwan Dollar: Mildly hawkish CBC but flows drive – OCBC
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong highlights that Taiwan’s CBC kept its policy rate at 2% for a tenth straight quarter with a mildly hawkish tone, sharply raising 2026 growth and inflation forecasts while flagging sticky services inflation. However, the bank stresses that near-term USD/TWD direction will be driven more by foreign equity flows, tech sentiment and […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Taiwan Dollar: CBC holds rates but flags inflation risks – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Henry Hao report that Taiwan’s CBC kept its policy rate at 2.0% for a tenth straight meeting, signalling a patient stance. The bank slightly raised its 2026 inflation and GDP forecasts, sees strong growth from AI-related semiconductor demand, and suggests policy could stay unchanged in December but start hiking in Q1 […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago