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BNYโs Geoff Yu says JPY selling has largely run its course, while USD/JPYโs return toward 160 keeps intervention risk firmly in focus. The bank notes that positioning has not yet turned decisively long JPY, but sees scope for tactical yen buying to re-emerge if markets again anticipate official intervention. Intervention risk anchors USD/JPY levels “Exposures […]
Deutsche Bankโs Jim Reid notes that rising nominal and real yields pressured global equities, with US and European stocks falling and losses extending across Asia. US technology shares underperformed, while European declines were more moderate. Futures for major US and European indices also pointed to continued weakness. Global indices under broad pressure “Meanwhile in the US, […]
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent has pushed back above $95/bbl as escalating Persian Gulf tensions revive supply risk and a geopolitical premium. They highlight record ICE gasoil cracks, extreme backwardation and ongoing disruptions to Middle East and Russian diesel exports. ING expects middle distillate cracks to stay highly elevated and volatile […]
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Wednesday. Annual CPI inflation accelerated to 4.1% in Q2 , largely due to higher fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. However, the RBNZ emphasized that underlying inflationary pressures remain considerably weaker. Excluding […]
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that markets now price nearly a 70% chance of a September Fed hike after Chair Kevin Warshโs hawkish speech, but stresses upcoming US inflation data will be decisive. She downplays the jobs report as a linchpin and questions how long the Dollar can benefit from a potential rate hike amid renewed political […]
UOBโs Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD broke below its anticipated intraday range, dropping to 1.3507 as downside momentum starts to build. Intraday, they expect a bearish bias with potential tests of 1.3500 and the major 1.3480 support, provided prices stay below 1.3545. Over one to three weeks, they keep a downside risk focus, […]
Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD slipped below 1.1600 as the US Dollar strengthened on a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and geopolitical tensions. The team highlights that Euro area inflation has moved back above 3%, reinforcing expectations for a September ECB rate hike. Manufacturing data show a rebound led by Germany, while unemployment remains historically […]
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata said on Wednesday that the central bank needs a different response from conventional semi-annual rate hike pace. Key quotes 2026 marks a regime change, needs a different response as rate hikes are becoming a global trend on the back of economic growth, as well as AI-linked investment. […]
Reserve Bank of New Zealandโs (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman presents the prepared remarks on the Monetary Policy Review (MPR) and responds to media questions at the press conference after the September monetary policy announcement. Earlier on, Breman and her colleagues hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, as widely […]
Key takeaways Global bond market sell off haunts markets Global sovereign bonds are selling off as we start a new month. The UK is, unsurprisingly, taking the biggest hit. Two and 10-year yields rose by 10 basis points at one point on Tuesday, and are currently higher by 7 and 8bps respectively. The UKโs debt […]
