Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman presents the prepared remarks on the Monetary Policy Review (MPR) and responds to media questions at the press conference after the September monetary policy announcement. Earlier on, Breman and her colleagues hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, as widely […]
Key takeaways Global bond market sell off haunts markets Global sovereign bonds are selling off as we start a new month. The UK is, unsurprisingly, taking the biggest hit. Two and 10-year yields rose by 10 basis points at one point on Tuesday, and are currently higher by 7 and 8bps respectively. The UK’s debt […]
The euro is recovering slightly after its recent losses despite unfavorable data from the euro area, where CPI inflation rose at a slower pace than expected and the unemployment rate increased to 6.4%, exceeding forecasts. EURUSD (M15 interval) Source: xStation5
This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises solely the Overbalance methodology, which enables the identification of points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of their 1:1 […]
German retail sales disappointed sharply in July, falling 3.4% m/m versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. This was a significant downside surprise, pointing to weaker private consumption. Moreover, Destatis revised the June reading to 0.0% m/m from the previously reported 0.7% decline. The weak data are not encouraging for equities and the valuations of companies […]
Societe Generale notes that the Polish Zloty strengthened while domestic bonds sold off as August inflation and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded expectations and the government presented its 2027 budget. The draft foresees a 7.1% of GDP deficit and a tax overhaul shifting burden toward corporates, raising concerns about ratings risks and borrowing costs despite recent […]
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky reports that Polish inflation surprised to 3.4% on higher fuel prices, while food prices fell, and a busy data calendar looms for Central and Eastern Europe. He notes regional markets have shifted back into hawkish mode after recent Federal Reserve comments and geopolitical tensions, with Czech and Polish curves pricing multiple hikes, which should limit […]
Standard Chartered strategists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deliver a total of 50bps of repo rate hikes in FY27, split between October and December 2026, citing resilient activity and hawkish August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes. They highlight upside risks if inflation surprises higher, but still see […]
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that several central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have already raised rates following the inflation shock linked to the Iran conflict. He stresses that markets reward central banks that react proactively rather than label shocks as transitory. For the Euro, he views the ECB’s more forceful stance as a positive […]
German retail sales disappointed sharply in July, falling 3.4% m/m versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. This was a significant downside surprise, pointing to weaker private consumption. Moreover, Destatis revised the June reading to 0.0% m/m from the previously reported 0.7% decline. The weak data are not encouraging for equities and the valuations of companies […]