Institutional
BNY, Institutional
Euro: Inflation test for ECB hike odds – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that upcoming German CPI and Eurozone flash CPI are critical for European Central Bank expectations, with markets already pricing a near-certain September hike. While services inflation is softening and second-round wage effects remain unclear, stronger headline readings could reinforce hawkish ECB messaging and challenge Europe’s fragile cyclical recovery and activity […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
ING
Gold: Fed hawkishness caps upside – ING
ING’s commodities team, led by Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, reports that Gold came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced a higher-for-longer rates narrative, supporting the Dollar. They add that upcoming US inflation and labour data, central bank buying and geopolitics will shape Gold’s near-term performance, with upside seen as constrained by rate expectations. […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
DBS, Institutional
US Dollar: Warsh speech supports greenback – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that the US Dollar (USD) recovered after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, as futures pricing restored a meaningful probability of a September FOMC rate hike. Wee stresses that Warsh reaffirmed his inflation-first stance and avoided detailed forward guidance, leaving structural long-bond and de-dollarisation risks for the […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
Institutional, OCBC
Japanese Yen: Market needs more than BoJ pricing – OCBC
OCBC FX Strategist Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has already benefited from aggressive market pricing for Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening, with an 85% chance of a September hike implied. They argue further JPY gains may require additional policy tools beyond rate increases, such as measures to encourage […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
ING, Institutional
Brent: Hormuz tensions keep prices supported above $90 – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that oil prices, including ICE Brent, started the week stronger after US strikes on Iran raised concerns over Persian Gulf supply. They highlight Strait of Hormuz flows and Russia’s extended diesel export ban as key factors supporting the oil complex. Brent underpinned by Gulf tensions “Oil prices […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
UOB
British Pound: Downside risks with 1.3480 in sight against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD fell sharply to 1.3527 and closed at 1.3540, contradicting expectations for range trading. Intraday, they see limited further losses within 1.3520–1.3570 due to oversold conditions. Over the coming weeks, risk stays skewed lower toward 1.3480 while the pair remains capped below 1.3600. Pound […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
Dankse Bank
Euro: Warsh speech weighs on EUR against US Dollar – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team notes that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech pushed EUR/USD lower, with markets now pricing September as nearly a coin-flip for a rate hike. The team highlights that the Dollar strengthened versus both the Euro and Japanese Yen, while EUR/USD is broadly unchanged in early Asian trading despite […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
Institutional
United States: Labour market watch – NBC Economics and Strategy
NBC Economics and Strategy report that U.S. nominal personal income rose 0.4% in July, double expectations, while spending increased 0.2% and real disposable income climbed 0.4% with flat real spending. They expect August nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 80K, keeping unemployment at 4.1% as participation edges up, and note PCE inflation holding at 3.7% […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
Institutional, TDS
United States Dollar: Rebound needs stronger payrolls data – TD Cowen
TD Cowen’s Washington Strategy team, led by Chris Krueger, notes that a durable rebound in the Dollar hinges on stronger US policy follow-through and renewed upside surprises in US data. The analysts remain broadly bearish on the Dollar for now, highlighting limited upside versus the Canadian Dollar and Chinese Yuan as markets await key US […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago
Currency Talk, Institutional
Three markets to watch next week
Last week was dominated by uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, tensions involving Russia and, of course, Nvidia’s outstanding earnings and expectations ahead of Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. That is now in the past, however, and the coming days are likely to bring another dose of volatility given several key macroeconomic […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago