Institutional
ING, Institutional
Oil: Diverging supply signals shape Brent – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson notes that ICE Brent has repeatedly dipped below $100/bbl but continues to settle above this level as the market weighs conflicting supply and geopolitical factors. Higher oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, G7 reserve releases, and recovering Saudi pipeline capacity contrast with persistent Middle East tensions and unchanged OPEC+ production plans. […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, TDS
US data week: ISM, labor and sentiment in focus – TD Securities
Munoz and Nir expect a relatively quiet US data calendar, with ISM Services likely slipping to 54.0 versus 55.0 consensus, modestly higher Jobless Claims, and a small decline in UMich Sentiment to 47.5. They note September payrolls moderated mainly on seasonal factors, while underlying labor-market strength and rising participation support a still-resilient backdrop. Services survey […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional
US economy: Mixed labour and inflation picture – NBC Economics and Strategy
NBC Economics and Strategy highlights that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 29K in September versus a 90K consensus, while the household survey showed a 406K employment surge and a 4.2% unemployment rate. Q2 real GDP was revised up to 2.2% annualized. The headline PCE deflator stayed at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, both below expectations […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, Market Analysis
BoJ’s Uchida: AI has become a major focus among central banks, including at BoJ policy meetings
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Monday that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a major focus among central banks, including at BoJ monetary policy meetings. Key quotes Adoption of AI could have both positive and negative effects on productivity and labor markets. AI has become a major focus among central banks, […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional
Euro: Downside risks despite ECB scope – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD has slightly recovered after hitting fresh cyclical lows, with support at 1.1200 and 1.1111. Mixed Eurozone CPI keeps inflation above target and allows the ECB scope for further hikes, but stronger US growth and France’s worsening budget situation leave EUR/USD risks skewed to the downside over the coming […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional
US labour market: Softer jobs ease Fed hike risk – ABN Amro
ABN Amro’s Rogier Quaedvlieg notes September US labour market data came in weaker than expected, with payrolls at 29k versus consensus 90k and prior months revised down by 60k. He see the report as mixed but consistent with its base case and reducing pressure for an October Fed hike. Weaker jobs and wages temper Fed […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional
Canada labour market: Tariff effects assessed – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada analysts review Canada’s September labour report, the first full dataset since U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect. They estimate around 0.4% of Canada’s GDP and employment is tied to tariff-listed US demand. The bank expects tariffs to stall, but not reverse, labour market progress, with modest job gains and the unemployment […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional
Euro: October ECB hike odds seen limited – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered Global Research team discusses Euro area monetary policy, noting that core inflation has only edged up slightly since January and that higher yields pose downside risks to both growth and inflation. The authors judge that these factors reduce the chances of an October rate hike and expect the Governing Council to wait for […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
RBI to keep tightening risks alive – MUFG
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asia FX will be driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) finely balanced decision on 7 October. They expect RBI to keep rates on hold but stress that a hiking cycle from December is likely, with a total of 50–75bps […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, TDS
US Dollar: Fading rallies as Fed pricing peaks – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Macro Research’s FX team notes the softer US payrolls data is only marginally negative for the Dollar, with the labor market still described as buoyant and neither overheating nor deteriorating. They argue market pricing for Fed hawkishness has likely peaked and see near-term rate hike expectations easing in both the US and Europe. […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago