Institutional
Institutional, Societe Generale
Brazilian Real: Volatility risks after Lula win – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish analyzes Brazil after Lula’s surprise re-election over Flávio Bolsonaro. The note highlights likely pressure on Brazilian assets as markets unwind positions built on a Bolsonaro victory. It stresses challenging governability under a more conservative Congress, gradual fiscal consolidation, unresolved debt concerns and a higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook, including a shallower easing path […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, TDS
US Dollar: October Fed pause raises December hike odds – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the FOMC to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 4.00% in October, validating current market pricing while avoiding fresh forward guidance. They see inflation risks as elevated and argue that a hold now increases the likelihood of a December hike, with a non‑trivial chance of a larger […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Turkish Lira: CBRT maintains cautious easing stance – Commerzbank
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank reports that Turkey’s Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp to 36.0%, alongside similar moves in overnight rates. Despite acknowledging upside inflation risks from higher Oil, the bank now claims indicators “confirm” disinflation and signals meeting-by-meeting flexibility without altering its easing trajectory. Commerzbank […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Euro: France-linked spread risks keep EUR unattractive – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING notes that widening French OAT-Bund and OAT-BTP spreads have yet to materially weigh on the euro, but warns that sensitivity to French sovereign risk could return rapidly if spreads approach 200bp. He maintains a broadly bearish EUR outlook, highlighting EUR/CHF as a key sovereign-risk proxy and EUR/USD’s potential to re-test 1.1120 […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, TDS
Bank of Canada: Gradual return to neutral – TD Securities
TD Securities’ macro team, led by Andrew Kelvin and Robert Both, does not share market conviction for an October Bank of Canada rate hike. They expect the BoC to hold at 2.25% now, then deliver 25bp increases in December and January, taking policy to the midpoint of its neutral range while monitoring inflation breadth, growth […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, OCBC
South Korean Won: Recovery favoured on dips – OCBC
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong describe South Korean Won’s (KRW) initial strength and subsequent retracement as broader risk aversion resurfaced. The Bank of Korea’s decision to hold rates at 3% while retaining a tightening bias and calling KRW undervalued is seen as supportive. They expect further KRW recovery but prefer buying on […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
South Korean Won: Hawkish BoK supports consolidation – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao highlight that the Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 3.00% after two prior hikes, but delivered a clearly hawkish message. Strong semiconductor exports underpin higher growth expectations and rising inflation pressures. The authors note KRW strength since June and expect USD/KRW to consolidate in a […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, OCBC
Philippine Peso: Bearish but constrained by Oil – OCBC
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note Philippine Peso (PHP) remains under pressure even after a larger-than-expected 50bp Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hike to 5.50%, reflecting persistent inflation concerns. Higher rates may temper depreciation but are unlikely to fully offset elevated Oil prices, external imbalances and domestic growth worries. OCBC keeps a […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, UOB
Singapore Dollar: Modest upside bias against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank strategists (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD was little changed on Thursday, trading in a narrow band as safe-haven flows and Oil gains supported the US Dollar against Asian currencies. Their short-term view sees modest downside within 1.2755–1.2780, while the 1–3 week outlook stays negative toward 1.2750 […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, UOB
British Pound: Room to rise toward 1.3440 against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank strategists (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD saw volatile swings but closed little changed, with no clear momentum shift. Intraday, they expect a 1.3360–1.3420 range, yet their 1–3 week view retains upside scope toward 1.3440, while the broader 1–3 month outlook suggests further rebound toward 1.3480 unless […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago