Institutional
Institutional, Societe Generale
Oil: Crude forecasts signal inflation surprises ahead – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s analysts use their Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Diesel price forecasts to derive forward-looking inflation surprises for the US and Eurozone. By linking spreads, inventories and refining cracks, they construct 12‑month crude and Diesel paths and show that, if these are accurate, Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprises can be estimated well ahead […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
European Central Bank: Contagion risk reshapes rate expectations – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that unwanted tightening in Euro-zone financial conditions is prompting markets to pare back expectations for further ECB rate hikes. Pricing has shifted closer to MUFG’s forecast of two additional moves, which may still be too aggressive if fragmentation risks intensify, while speculation grows that the ECB could slow QT or activate […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
Brazilian Real: Election surprise supports BRL – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad says the Brazilian Real (BRL) and local assets are poised to open higher after Flávio Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected first-round election result. Haddad adds that Bolsonaro’s momentum ahead of the October 25 runoff, together with proposals for faster fiscal repair and lower taxes, reinforces a positive BRL outlook already supported by […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, UOB
Australian Dollar: Downside limited against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang reports AUD/USD closed at 0.6951 after a brief spike to 0.6976, with intraday price action expected to stay between 0.6930 and 0.6975. He judges the recent weakness from mid-September remains intact but, given oversold conditions, further declines may struggle to reach 0.6866. On a 1–3 month horizon, […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
ING, Institutional
Brazilian Real: Election surprise supports BRL against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Chris Turner says Brazilian assets are set to rally after Sunday’s presidential vote, where Flavio Bolsonaro secured 47% versus President Lula’s 45%. He expects markets to assume remaining votes lean Bolsonaro, sees currency and bonds benefiting from his fiscal austerity and deregulation agenda, and projects USD/BRL opening near 5.10, with a return to 4.90 […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
DBS, Institutional
Euro: Pressured yet systemic risk contained – DBS
DBS strategist Philip Wee explains that EUR/USD’s four-week decline reflects shifting risk balances, with renewed Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening overshadowing the European Central Bank (ECB) and France’s fiscal issues overshadowing US concerns. He cautions against extrapolating French stress into a broader Eurozone crisis, emphasizing that current OAT-Bund spread widening is a repricing of known problems […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, UOB
Swiss Franc: Tight range expected against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CHF reversed sharply from 0.8382 to close at 0.8286, with intraday price action expected to edge lower toward 0.8245 while staying above 0.8225. On a 1–3 week view, he now sees the pair in a 0.8245–0.8365 range after prior upside momentum faded. Over 1–3 months, he […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
CEE FX: Hawkish holds and cautious easing path – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists expect a hawkish hold from Poland’s National Bank of Poland (NBP) at 3.75% and no change from Romania’s central bank NBR at 6.50%, as inflation and political uncertainty constrain policy flexibility. In Poland, firmer inflation keeps the prospect of further tightening alive, while in Romania, elevated price pressures and uncertainty over government […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, OCBC
US Dollar: Volatility-driven support into year-end – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the US Dollar (USD) has started Q4 2026 on a firm footing, supported by resilient United States (US) growth and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) risks. However, they expect only a moderate USD rally into year-end as markets scale back near-term Fed hike expectations and as […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Deutsche Bank, Institutional
Equities: Strong earnings cycle offsets yield shock – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team reports that global equities ended last week only 0.5% lower despite a rapid rise in yields, with tech and cyclicals outperforming. Over the past two weeks, equities are up 0.4%, while volatility has been largely confined to bonds. The team argues strong earnings growth explains equities’ resilience versus the rates shock. Tech […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago