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United Overseas Bankโs (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD remains in a short-term range after last weekโs sharp drop, with intraday trade expected between 1.3535 and 1.3570. Despite deeply oversold conditions limiting sustained declines, they still see downside risk toward 1.3480 over the next 1โ3 weeks, as long as the British […]
Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD has modestly rebounded above 1.16 following recent Dollar strength after Fed Chair Kevin Warshโs Jackson Hole speech. They also highlight contained underlying inflation pressures across major euro-area economies, while markets await the regionโs flash inflation, unemployment and final manufacturing PMI data. Pair recovers above 1.16 level “Inย the euroย area, we […]
Key takeaways Stocks are pointing to a lower open in Europe later today, as the oil price continues to climb, and bond yields also jump. The Brent crude oil price is back above $91 per barrel, as tensions between Iran and the US heat up. A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, which […]
Rising geopolitical tensions have weighed on market sentiment. Equities, government bonds and precious metals are declining, while oil prices are moving higher, increasing concerns about renewed inflationary pressures and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 has erased its August gains, while U.S. index futures are down around 0.1%โ0.2% today. GOLD chart (D1 interval) […]
Key takeaways The week ahead: Payrolls in focus as Fed rate hike As we start a new week, the market is digesting the fallout from Kevin Warshโs Jackson Hole speech. Traders are also faced with a resumption of air strikes between the US and rising oil prices, and renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate […]
Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said Tuesday that he confirmed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that continued, coordinated action on FX is needed. Additional quotes Shared understanding with Bessent on the significance of joint FX intervention. Can’t comment on FX rates when asked if current Yen rates are in order. Hard to say […]
Crude oil has once again become a hostage of geopolitics. Attacks in the Persian Gulf region and increasing restrictions on transit in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed demand fundamentals into the background. Although backwardation at the short end of the oil market curve is not as strong as it was 5 months ago, this […]
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that upcoming German CPI and Eurozone flash CPI are critical for European Central Bank expectations, with markets already pricing a near-certain September hike. While services inflation is softening and second-round wage effects remain unclear, stronger headline readings could reinforce hawkish ECB messaging and challenge Europeโs fragile cyclical recovery and activity […]
INGโs commodities team, led by Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, reports that Gold came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced a higher-for-longer rates narrative, supporting the Dollar. They add that upcoming US inflation and labour data, central bank buying and geopolitics will shape Goldโs near-term performance, with upside seen as constrained by rate expectations. […]
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that the US Dollar (USD) recovered after Fed Chairman Kevin Warshโs Jackson Hole speech, as futures pricing restored a meaningful probability of a September FOMC rate hike. Wee stresses that Warsh reaffirmed his inflation-first stance and avoided detailed forward guidance, leaving structural long-bond and de-dollarisation risks for the […]
