Institutional
BNY, Institutional
Oil: Hormuz supply recovery eases risk premium – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY notes that improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz are easing Oil supply fears and supporting a lower Brent price profile. Kuwait and Qatar have restored crude shipments to about 70% of pre-war levels, lifting total Hormuz flows. As more Gulf barrels reach the market, the disruption premium in Oil prices […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 months ago
Institutional
Japanese Yen : Range holds with BoJ hike expectations – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is stuck between resistance at 160.00 and support at the 200‑day moving average, as Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials maintain hawkish guidance and underlying inflation firms near the 2% target. Haddad expects a 25bps BoJ hike in September but argues a lower USD/JPY is more likely to […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 months ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: Himino signals hawkish shift – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the Japanese Yen reaction to Deputy Governor Himino’s speech was limited, even as his comments aligned with market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. The BoJ is seen shifting toward a faster pace of tightening, with FX developments increasingly central to its inflation outlook, while Jackson Hole […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
ING, Institutional
Australian Dollar: RBA hold view caps near-term upside against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the only G10 currency gaining this week as hotter July inflation and strong household spending fuel hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations. ING’s macro team still favours a prolonged RBA hold, expecting benign inflation and a steady Fed to reduce urgency, with AUD/USD targeted […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
Polish Zloty: Import pass-through risks challenge cuts – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Euro strength is amplifying import price pass-through risks for Poland, with EUR/PLN gains feeding into higher import prices. The Monetary Policy Council’s guidance of unchanged rates contrasts with market pricing for a return above 4%. Yu sees Poland as facing the clearest hawkish risk in Central and Eastern Europe, making […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
ING, Institutional
US Dollar: Warsh speech keeps markets cautious – ING
ING strategist Francesco Pesole sees recent United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data as consistent with disinflation but too gradual to force Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes this year. Pesole still expects the Fed to hold rates on 16 September and anticipate a weaker Dollar, but warns that hawkish market pricing and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Brazilian Real: Rate cuts may support BRL against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists observe that the Brazilian Real (BRL) largely ignored softer inflation data, which still supports a Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) rate cut in September followed by a pause into elections. A broader easing cycle could attract bond inflows and support the BRL, with USD/BRL expected to remain in a narrow range and […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
Institutional, Rabobank
Mexican Peso: Carry-driven strength extends against US Dollar – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz highlight that USD/MXN has broken below 17 for the first time since May 2024, prompting a forecast revision toward 16.5 in coming weeks. They see strong carry demand and subdued volatility keeping MXN supported, while a mild retracement is projected for next year, with the pair staying within recent […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Turkish Lira: Inflation expectations outpace CBRT forecasts – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose revisits Turkish inflation dynamics, noting seasonally-adjusted price momentum above 2% m/m and warning that disinflation is unlikely. Market participants have raised year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations to 29.5% y/y, above Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) 28% forecast. Ghose argues CBRT repeatedly chases private forecasts, undermining credibility, while persistent […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
Norwegian Krone: Valuation headwinds temper NOK against Euro – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that stronger Oil prices have improved Norway’s terms of trade, but EUR/NOK gains have pushed up the I-44 import price index. While Norges Bank can focus on domestic factors thanks to NOK’s year-to-date performance, Yu warns that high investor holdings and a weaker valuation case make short EUR/NOK trades unattractive, with […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago