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Last week was dominated by uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, tensions involving Russia and, of course, Nvidia’s outstanding earnings and expectations ahead of Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. That is now in the past, however, and the coming days are likely to bring another dose of volatility given several key macroeconomic […]
Dollar and Treasury yields rise on the hawkish tone of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks EURUSD is falling following the release of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech and during his remarks, as markets interpreted his message as clearly hawkish. The key point was not that Warsh explicitly signaled a rate hike, but rather […]
Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Middle East tensions and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping key energy supply routes at risk. Qatar’s extended force majeure on LNG exports threatens European winter gas balances and could re-ignite inflation pressures, while Brent, WTI and Dutch TTF prices reflect a fragile equilibrium in Oil […]
ING’s Chris Turner reports that the Korean Won (KRW) continues to advance, driven by back-to-back Bank of Korea (BoK) rate hikes to 3.00% and a Dot Plot pointing to 3.25% in six months. Upgraded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts linked to a chip export boom underpin the currency, though authorities may worry about KRW/JPY highs […]
DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng note that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.0% to anchor inflation expectations and support the Peso. Philippine Peso (PHP) is the only ASEAN-6 currency weaker in 3Q26 versus the Dollar, and DBS flags above-target inflation as leaving […]
DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep its Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 2.75% on September 3, maintaining the stance adopted after its July 2025 insurance cut. They highlight contained Malaysian inflation and robust 2026 growth near 5%, arguing there is little urgency for rate hikes despite […]
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur challenges recent internal analysis on CNY undervaluation and exports, arguing that China’s exchange-rate management and gold purchases point to deliberate weakening. He highlights China’s outsized export and trade-surplus gains since 2019 and notes that a roughly 20% real exchange-rate advantage is unlikely to be neutral for global trade flows. Exchange-rate policy and export dominance […]
DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect South Korea’s August exports to stay strong near 60% year-on-year, underpinning the outlook for the KOSPI and Korean Won (KRW) even as growth moderates from June’s peak. They also see headline and core CPI around 3%, reinforcing its view that further Bank of Korea (BoK) rate hikes are […]
US heating oil prices remained around $4.25–$4.50 a gallon, more than 80% higher than a year ago, as supplies fell to their lowest seasonal level on record. US distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, fell to 103.4 million barrels in the week ending August 21, the lowest level recorded for this time of […]
Global markets are underpinned by long-term interest rates, which remained elevated at the turn of September amid high energy prices, ample AI-related corporate debt issuance, and wide budget deficits against signs of resilient economic growth. Economic data from the US will be centered on the labor market as FOMC members note the US is at […]
