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OCBC FX Strategist Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has already benefited from aggressive market pricing for Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening, with an 85% chance of a September hike implied. They argue further JPY gains may require additional policy tools beyond rate increases, such as measures to encourage […]
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that oil prices, including ICE Brent, started the week stronger after US strikes on Iran raised concerns over Persian Gulf supply. They highlight Strait of Hormuz flows and Russiaโs extended diesel export ban as key factors supporting the oil complex. Brent underpinned by Gulf tensions “Oil prices […]
United Overseas Bankโs (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD fell sharply to 1.3527 and closed at 1.3540, contradicting expectations for range trading. Intraday, they see limited further losses within 1.3520โ1.3570 due to oversold conditions. Over the coming weeks, risk stays skewed lower toward 1.3480 while the pair remains capped below 1.3600. Pound […]
Danske Research Team notes that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warshโs hawkish Jackson Hole speech pushed EUR/USD lower, with markets now pricing September as nearly a coin-flip for a rate hike. The team highlights that the Dollar strengthened versus both the Euro and Japanese Yen, while EUR/USD is broadly unchanged in early Asian trading despite […]
NBC Economics and Strategy report that U.S. nominal personal income rose 0.4% in July, double expectations, while spending increased 0.2% and real disposable income climbed 0.4% with flat real spending. They expect August nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 80K, keeping unemployment at 4.1% as participation edges up, and note PCE inflation holding at 3.7% […]
TD Cowenโs Washington Strategy team, led by Chris Krueger, notes that a durable rebound in the Dollar hinges on stronger US policy follow-through and renewed upside surprises in US data. The analysts remain broadly bearish on the Dollar for now, highlighting limited upside versus the Canadian Dollar and Chinese Yuan as markets await key US […]
Last week was dominated by uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, tensions involving Russia and, of course, Nvidiaโs outstanding earnings and expectations ahead of Kevin Warshโs speech at Jackson Hole. That is now in the past, however, and the coming days are likely to bring another dose of volatility given several key macroeconomic […]
Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Middle East tensions and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping key energy supply routes at risk. Qatarโs extended force majeure on LNG exports threatens European winter gas balances and could re-ignite inflation pressures, while Brent, WTI and Dutch TTF prices reflect a fragile equilibrium in Oil […]
INGโs Chris Turner reports that the Korean Won (KRW) continues to advance, driven by back-to-back Bank of Korea (BoK) rate hikes to 3.00% and a Dot Plot pointing to 3.25% in six months. Upgraded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts linked to a chip export boom underpin the currency, though authorities may worry about KRW/JPY highs […]
DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng note that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.0% to anchor inflation expectations and support the Peso. Philippine Peso (PHP) is the only ASEAN-6 currency weaker in 3Q26 versus the Dollar, and DBS flags above-target inflation as leaving […]
