Institutional
Institutional, MUFG
RBI to keep tightening risks alive – MUFG
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asia FX will be driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) finely balanced decision on 7 October. They expect RBI to keep rates on hold but stress that a hiking cycle from December is likely, with a total of 50–75bps […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, TDS
US Dollar: Fading rallies as Fed pricing peaks – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Macro Research’s FX team notes the softer US payrolls data is only marginally negative for the Dollar, with the labor market still described as buoyant and neither overheating nor deteriorating. They argue market pricing for Fed hawkishness has likely peaked and see near-term rate hike expectations easing in both the US and Europe. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Deutsche Bank, Institutional
Gold: Modest gains in risk-off backdrop – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank notes that Gold prices edged higher alongside broader risk-off moves and rising financial stress in Europe. While the report focuses more on bonds, equities and energy, Gold’s advance came as volatility ticked up and investors digested geopolitical risks and shifting central bank expectations ahead of key US and Euro Area data releases. Safe-haven […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
ING, Institutional
British Pound: Potential EU re-engagement supports Sterling – ING
Chris Turner at ING discusses the British Pound as EUR/GBP moves noticeably lower, suggesting emerging Euro weakness and a changing UK narrative. He highlights UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s speech on moving closer to Europe, including a possible push to rejoin the EU after the next election. Turner notes markets would likely view EU re-entry […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
Institutional, Rabobank
Bank of Japan cautious on further hikes – Rabobank
Rabobank Research Global Economics & Markets reports that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is reluctant to continue rapid rate hikes, with September meeting notes revealing internal divisions and concerns over weak private consumption. BOJ balances growth and tightening risks “The BOJ doesn’t want to keep raising rates rapidly, the September meeting notes showing some hawks […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 months ago
Deutsche Bank, Institutional
Brent Oil: Conflict-driven surge shapes bond stress – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that Brent Oil has surged sharply in Q3 as the US–Iran conflict re-escalated, driving a major global bond selloff and higher long-end yields. The report notes fresh gains in Brent and WTI, warns about benchmark roll effects on front contracts, and flags strength further out the futures curve, reinforcing inflation […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Mexican Peso: Weakness and USMCA risk repricing – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s research notes that the Mexican Peso (MXN) had a disappointing September, losing over 4% against the Dollar since late month. Standard macro drivers and Banxico policy guidance explain only part of the move, with positioning and renewed USMCA-related concerns likely contributing to a Mexico-specific risk premium, even as analysts expect sentiment and the US […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 months ago
Institutional, Rabobank
US Treasuries: Cold War yield parallels – Rabobank
Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets notes that US Treasury yields ended Q3 sharply higher, with 10-year and 30-year yields reaching levels last seen in 2002. The report highlights concerns from major market commentators about bonds and equities, and warns that another phase shift higher in long-dated US yields could take them into ranges seen […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Political stress and limited FX reaction – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Tatha Ghose examine how Euro political risks, especially in France, Spain and Italy, transmit to EUR/USD and a trade-weighted Euro. Their study since 2010 finds the Euro reacts more when several Euro area countries and banks are under stress, with current French spread widening seen as a historically normal episode. […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Fed path shaped by firm inflation – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Jan Groen reviews August US inflation and growth data, highlighting that Core PCE came in softer than expected but underlying price pressures in services remain firm. Benchmark revisions lowered measured inflation but still show it above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target. Stronger consumption and GDP revisions suggest the US economy entered […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago