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DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep its Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 2.75% on September 3, maintaining the stance adopted after its July 2025 insurance cut. They highlight contained Malaysian inflation and robust 2026 growth near 5%, arguing there is little urgency for rate hikes despite […]
Commerzbankโs Volkmar Baur challenges recent internal analysis on CNY undervaluation and exports, arguing that Chinaโs exchange-rate management and gold purchases point to deliberate weakening. He highlights Chinaโs outsized export and trade-surplus gains since 2019 and notes that a roughly 20% real exchange-rate advantage is unlikely to be neutral for global trade flows. Exchange-rate policy and export dominance […]
DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect South Koreaโs August exports to stay strong near 60% year-on-year, underpinning theย outlookย for the KOSPI and Korean Won (KRW) even as growth moderates from Juneโs peak. They also see headline and core CPI around 3%, reinforcing its view that further Bank of Korea (BoK) rate hikes are […]
Global markets are underpinned by long-term interest rates, which remained elevated at the turn of September amid high energy prices, ample AI-related corporate debt issuance, and wide budget deficits against signs of resilient economic growth. Economic data from the US will be centered on the labor market as FOMC members note the US is at […]
Nomuraโs Euro area team expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting, citing higher HICP inflation and resilient growth. They highlight hawkish comments from ECB officials and note that Brent and Dutch TTF price dynamics could shape additional tightening risks into December 2026. Hawkish officials and […]
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that month-end rebalancing flows leave the British Pound (GBP) vulnerable, with GBP seen as particularly exposed after strong performance and stretched GBP/USD levels. United Kingdom (UK) assets react to Chancellor Healeyโs emphasis on fiscal discipline under the Labour government, while business confidence improves and pricing intentions ease, shaping expectations for the Pound and […]
MUFG highlights that rising European natural gas prices are reviving inflation risks, which could push the Bank of England toward another rate hike and underpin the Pound. While crude Oil remains contained, UK natural gas futures have surged, and the bank notes that this divergence in energy dynamics may support both the Euro and Pound against peers. […]
Nordeaโs Helge J. Pedersen argues that the Japanese Yen appears significantly undervalued versus the Dollar on both OECD purchasing power parity estimates and The Economistโs Big Mac Index. Despite Japanโs strong trade and current account surpluses suggesting room for Yen appreciation, persistently low Japanese interestย ratesย versus the US continue to weigh on JPY and limit sustained […]
Brown Brothers Harrimanโs (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is trading just above its 200โday moving average near 1.3840 as Canadaโs Q2 GDP is expected to rebound strongly, with real GDP seen rising 3.4% SAAR versus a slight Q1 contraction. However, Haddad warns a worsening USโCanada trade war could cut the rebound short and sees current Bank of […]
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is holding within a narrow trading range against the US Dollar (USD) at around 159.35, but pressures are rising following an acceleration in Tokyo inflation data. With Tokyo headline CPI reaching 1.9% in August and service sector price gains hitting nearly a one-year high, market odds for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest […]
