Institutional
Institutional, Societe Generale
Swedish Krona: Riksbank hikes support SEK – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes the Riksbank’s 25bp hike to 2.0% and guidance for further tightening, keeping policy accommodative versus neutral. Updated projections imply more hikes through 2028, narrowing the differential with the ECB. Despite negative carry, SEK has outperformed, with EUR/SEK retreating to its 200-day moving average after September’s peak and further downside risk if support […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Swiss Franc: Franc supported by hawkish SNB risk – ING
Chris Turner at ING notes EUR/CHF fell after Swiss inflation surprised at 1.5% year-on-year, raising doubts that the Swiss National Bank can avoid tightening through 2027. He recalls the SNB’s 2023 strategy of driving the Swiss Franc stronger via FX sales and expects growing interest in the currency, with downside risks to existing EUR/CHF forecasts […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
BNY, Institutional
LatAm FX: Carry exposed as volatility rises – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY highlights growing vulnerability in Latin American FX carry trades as realized volatility spikes and G10 rates drift higher. With Brazilian and Mexican central banks seen on hold and terms-of-trade support lacking, real rate gains must come from policy. Positioning data show selling pressure in COP and CLP, while BRL needs a […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Indian Rupee: Range holds against US Dollar with oil support – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s FX team notes USD/INR traded slightly lower around 94.90, continuing to hold near the lower end of its established 94–97 range over six months. The report argues that the recent drop in Oil prices could support the Indian Rupee and help keep USD/INR anchored toward the bottom of this band, in line with steady […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Natural gas: Shipping channel drives gas volatility – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that LNG shipping conditions are central to how maritime risk transmits into natural gas volatility. As Europe relies more on LNG imports and the United States on exports, freight costs, inventory adequacy and security of LNG trade routes become key drivers of implied volatility, especially during […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
Institutional, TDS
Brent: Higher-for-longer price regime – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay argues that Brent crude Oil is entering a higher-for-longer regime, with fair value estimated at $90-100/bbl once the Iran and broader Middle East conflicts conclude, narrowing to $80-90/bbl into H2 2027–2028. He highlights persistent risk premia, fragile Middle East flows, tight product markets and recovering global demand as key supports for […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
Institutional, UOB
Swiss Franc: Upside momentum accelerates against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report a sharp drop in USD/CHF, with the pair closing down 0.80% and testing key supports. Intraday, they see potential for a brief break below 0.8165, though oversold conditions may limit follow-through. On a 1–3 week horizon, rapidly increasing downward momentum points to a […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
ING, Institutional
Oil: Geopolitical risk premium holds as midterms loom – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent rallied strongly last week, supported by escalating Gulf risks and renewed attacks on Russian refineries. They highlight market nervousness ahead of US midterm elections, with traders weighing potential US–Iran hostilities against a tentative diplomatic track. Speculative positioning in ICE Brent remains below March highs, leaving […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Policy risks could revive swings against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes EUR/USD has settled around 1.12 after dropping from 1.16, with options-implied volatility falling again. She argues that limited changes in relative Fed and ECB expectations and a broader trend of smaller interest-rate cycles and synchronised business cycles have dampened FX swings. However, she warns that calm in FX markets is […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
DBS, Institutional
Vietnam: Strong growth complicates inflation fight – DBS
DBS Group Research anticipates Vietnam’s October 2026 exports and retail sales to stay robust, while headline inflation hovers around 5%, above the 4.5% target. Strong electronics shipments, firm household spending and tourism underpin activity, but elevated transport, energy, food and material costs pose a policy challenge as authorities pursue at least 10% economic growth. Robust […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago