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Commerzbankโs Antje Praefcke highlights uncertainty over whether Norges Bank will hike in September or wait until December. Inflation remains above target despite a recent downside surprise, while growth is described as close to normal. The regional network survey is seen as decisive, with Oil prices and Middle East developments still the main drivers for NOK. […]
Rabobankโs Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights escalating Middle East tensions, with Houthi attacks and damage to Saudi infrastructure forcing more Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. He notes increased supply risks via Bab el-Mandeb and potential mines, and says it has updated its energy forecasts as higher crude and refined product prices […]
ING strategists Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky note that markets fully expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25bp to 4.0%, with a surprise hold seen as materially negative for the Dollar. They argue the FOMC is likely aware of Treasury risks and will keep a hawkish tone, with Chair Kevin Warshโs openness to further tightening […]
Wednesday will be dominated by the US Fed’s evening decision (7:00 PM) – the most anticipated central bank meeting of the year. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 bps rate hike, the first since July 2023. Figure 1: Change in Market-Implied Probability of the Fed’s September Rate Hike (2025 – 2026) Source: […]
Danske Bankโs Danske Research Team observes that global equities closed lower on Tuesday, with Energy the only sector in positive territory as Oil prices surged. The bank notes that selling was concentrated in consumer discretionary and staples, reflecting concerns that higher energy costs will hurt consumers. Despite equities being up over 10% year to date, […]
Deutsche Bankโs Sanjay Raja notes that United Kingdom (UK) inflation rose in August, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.1% year-on-year, its highest since December last year. While Core CPI and food inflation remained subdued, energy and services prices showed worrying strength. Raja highlights that inflation is running above Bank of England (BoE) projections […]
Commerzbank economists note Indiaโs August CPI rose to 4.8% year-on-year, above the RBI midpoint but still below the central bankโs full-year forecast. They see a more finely balanced policy outlook, with a likely hawkish hold at 5.25%. A narrower trade deficit and strong capital inflows should support INR, even as higher Oil prices pressure inflation and […]
UOBโs Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a cautious stance on EUR/USD after the pair closed almost unchanged near 1.1543. They note slowing downside momentum intraday but still see room for a move toward 1.1520, while the broader 1โ3 week view points to potential losses toward 1.1490 unless resistance at 1.1585 is breached, suggesting sustained […]
Today Markets Analysis: US live cattle futures moved lower across the board on Tuesday, while feeder cattle suffered a sharper decline as traders balanced weaker futures against firm cash cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values. October 2026 live cattle settled at $220.70 per cwt, down $1.55, while December fell $1.80 to $223.35. Feeder cattle […]
Today Markets Analysis: US soybean futures moved higher across the front months on Tuesday, supported by a sharp rally in soymeal, while wet weather across parts of the US Midwest raised concerns about near-term harvest progress. November 2026 soybeans closed at $13.18ยพ per bushel, up 14ยฝ cents, while January and March contracts each gained 15 […]
