Brazilian Real: Bolsonaro boost faces parliamentary constraints – Commerzbank
CommerzBank, Institutional
Brazilian Real: Bolsonaro boost faces parliamentary constraints – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke notes the Brazilian Real (BRL) strengthened about 4% as USD/BRL fell from 5.2 to 5 on F. Bolsonaro’s election lead. He cautions that despite gains by Partido Liberal and other conservatives, Bolsonaro would still lack outright majorities and remain reliant on alliances. Market-friendly reforms and Real-positive policies therefore face political hurdles, tempering […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: Pares gains against US Dollar but BoJ outlook supportive – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has softened after a Bloomberg report on the GPIF’s September meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00. Despite the correction, the Yen remains the best-performing G10 currency since August, helped by faster Bank of Japan policy normalization and higher JGB yields. Reuters sources suggest the BoJ may signal […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
ING, Institutional, Market Analysis
Euro: Downside risks with 1.1100 in sight against US Dollar – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING highlights that the Euro (EUR) is under pressure from French bond market turbulence, which is adding a fiscal risk premium and driving a repricing lower in European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations. Swap differentials now resemble levels historically consistent with weaker EUR/USD. ING sees limited confidence in a sustained rebound and […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
France Budget Deficit Widens in Jan-Aug
France’s state budget deficit widened to EUR 159.6 billion in the January-August period from EUR 157.5 billion a year earlier. Expenditure rose 4.4% year-on-year to EUR 362.97 billion, driven mainly by higher debt-servicing costs amid rising interest rates and inflation, increased military spending, and higher public energy service charges (CSPE). Meanwhile, general budget revenue increased […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
French Construction Downturn Persists
The S&P Global France Construction PMI rose to 39.8 in September 2026 from 37.3 in August, remaining well below the 50 threshold, signaling a continued sector-wide downturn. Commercial construction was once again the weakest segment, posting a steep decline followed by residential construction, while civil engineering activity posted its slowest contraction in eight months. New […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
Germany Construction Activity Falls at Faster Pace
The S&P Global Germany Construction PMI fell to 43.5 in September 2026 from August’s eight-month high of 48.7. The renewed downturn in housing activity was a key drag, with the sector recording its steepest contraction since December 2024 after showing signs of stabilization in August. Commercial activity also suffered a fresh setback following a brief […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
Economic Calendar: Retail Sales and Fed Speakers in Focus
Today’s macroeconomic calendar is moderately busy, with several releases that could increase volatility across FX and bond markets. The main focus in Europe will be on eurozone retail sales and the UK Construction PMI. In the afternoon, attention will shift to the US and Canada, with the weekly ADP employment change, trade balance data, the […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
EUR, Hedging, Market Analysis, Technical Analysis, USD
Chart of The Day – EUR/USD Drops to May 2025 Levels as German Industrial Production Slide
German industrial orders fell by 10.6% month-on-month in August, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1% decline and a 2.5% increase in July. EUR/USD has resumed its decline and is trading at its lowest level since May 19, 2025 following the release, which raises serious questions about the outlook for the eurozone’s largest economy. The […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
ECB’s Lane: High inflation due to energy shock is driving hawkish ECB sentiment
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said in an interview with ANSA, released during the European trading session on Tuesday, that energy shock-led inflationary pressures are key driver to the high interest rates narrative. Comments Energy prices are high but strength of pass-through to the rest of economy remains uncertain. Main driver of […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Turkish Lira: CPI surprise seen enabling rate cut – Commerzbank
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank reports Turkey’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell below 30% year-on-year, with softer month-on-month gains, creating scope for the central bank to cut rates by 100 bps. He warns the Lira remains heavily managed by official intervention and cannot benefit sustainably. A rate cut and possible re-acceleration of inflation later this […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago