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Facts: Recommendation: Trade: Short position on GBPUSD at market price Target: 1.3525, 1.3480 Stop: 1.3630 Opinion: GBPUSD has been trading in an upward trend recently. However the pair may be experiencing a trend reversal. Looking at the pair at the H1 interval, one can see that the price broke below the lower limit of the […]
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) โ the benchmark US Crude Oil price โ attracts some selling following the overnight bounce from the $79.30-$79.25 region, or an over two-week low, though the downside remains cushioned. The commodity trades just above the $81.00 mark during the first half of the European session on Thursday, down less than 0.50% […]
BNYโs Geoff Yu argues that Euro strength is amplifying import price pass-through risks for Poland, with EUR/PLN gains feeding into higher import prices. The Monetary Policy Councilโs guidance of unchanged rates contrasts with market pricing for a return above 4%. Yu sees Poland as facing the clearest hawkish risk in Central and Eastern Europe, making […]
ING strategist Francesco Pesole sees recent United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data as consistent with disinflation but too gradual to forceย Federal Reserveย (Fed) hikes this year. Pesole still expects the Fed to holdย ratesย on 16 September and anticipate a weaker Dollar, but warns that hawkish market pricing and Kevin Warshโs Jackson Hole speech […]
Societe Generale strategists observe that the Brazilian Real (BRL) largely ignored softer inflation data, which still supports a Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) rate cut in September followed by a pause into elections. A broader easing cycle could attract bond inflows and support the BRL, with USD/BRL expected to remain in a narrow range and […]
Rabobank’s Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz highlight that USD/MXN has broken below 17 for the first time since May 2024, prompting a forecast revision toward 16.5 in coming weeks. They see strong carry demand and subdued volatility keeping MXN supported, while a mild retracement is projected for next year, with the pair staying within recent […]
Commerzbankโs Tatha Ghose revisits Turkish inflation dynamics, noting seasonally-adjusted price momentum above 2% m/m and warning that disinflation is unlikely. Market participants have raised year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations to 29.5% y/y, above Central Bank of the Republic of Tรผrkiye’s (CBRT) 28% forecast. Ghose argues CBRT repeatedly chases private forecasts, undermining credibility, while persistent […]
BNYโs Geoff Yu notes that stronger Oil prices have improved Norwayโs terms of trade, but EUR/NOK gains have pushed up the I-44 import price index. While Norges Bank can focus on domestic factors thanks to NOKโs year-to-date performance, Yu warns that high investor holdings and a weaker valuation case make short EUR/NOK trades unattractive, with […]
BS Group Researchโs Philip Wee notes AUD/USD has risen 2.2% in August after a 1.5% gain in July, leaving the Australian Dollar near year-to-date highs and the best-performing G10 currency in 2026. The move is driven by swift repricing of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike in November following hawkish minutes and upside […]
The Deutsche Bank strategists describe a modestly positive shift in equity sentiment following Nvidiaโs earnings. After a quiet cash session for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Nvidiaโs revenue beat and bullish AI outlook pushed its shares up 4.7% after-hours, lifting S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures. Salesforce and CrowdStrike results further supported global tech-linked equities. Nvidia-led rebound in equity […]
