Institutional
BNY, Institutional
Euro: ECB succession and data support resilience – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Eurozone assets remain supported by steady composite PMI readings and improving signs in German demand, while speculation over ECB leadership succession grows. He highlights Friedrich Merz’s upcoming meeting with ECB officials and questions surrounding Christine Lagarde’s tenure and a possible German candidate for the presidency. Leadership questions meet steady PMIs […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Japanese Yen: BoJ meeting to decide JPY path – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen as USD/JPY repeatedly breaks above 160 despite record FX interventions. He argues that expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, rather than intervention, now drive the currency, with recent hawkish comments boosting speculation. Pfister warns that failure to deliver a hike at the upcoming BoJ […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
ING, Institutional
Federal Reserve: September hike bias shifts – ING
ING’s James Knightley argues Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech has shifted the Federal Reserve’s reaction function toward a September rate hike, even though ING’s macro projections suggest the Fed could wait. The analysis highlights inflation above target, robust activity but pressured households, and concludes that a 25bp move is now more likely than a hold, […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional
US Dollar: Near-term stabilization view – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is softer mainly against the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, with Brent Oil nearing $100. Haddad expects the Dollar to stabilize in the near term except versus the Japanese Yen, and sees elevated Fed rate hike pricing into the September FOMC, but ultimately anticipates […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, Societe Generale
Swiss Franc: Swiss data supports dip-buying case – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note Swiss August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surprised to the upside, triggering profit-taking in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF but leaving Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy expectations unchanged. They point out that wider G10/SNB rate differentials and low FX volatility may encourage EUR/CHF dip-buying, while warning that renewed […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Canadian Dollar: BoC inflation focus and valuation divergence – MUFG
Derek Halpenny at MUFG notes the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) immediate advance after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% but signalled greater concern over inflation. Communications hinted at a possible earlier hike, yet MUFG doubts a sustained CAD rebound, citing short‑term valuation models that suggest USD/CAD should trade higher, with Oil and Middle East risks […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Polish Zloty: NBP language turns cautious after FX pressure – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski used G20 remarks to shift towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts. With August CPI surprising hawkishly and the Zloty underperforming CE3 peers, the bank is seen on the back foot. Ghose expects unchanged rates on 9 September but […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, UOB
Australian Dollar: Pullback eases with upside focus on 0.7200 against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report AUD/USD dipped to 0.7122 before a strong rebound to 0.7176, leaving intraday price action in a 0.7140–0.7180 range. Downward momentum is fading and a break above 0.7190 would confirm 0.7120 is out of reach. On a 1–3 month horizon, the pair is seen poised to […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
ING, Institutional
Japanese Yen: Intervention jitters linger – ING
Chris Turner at ING notes that a near 1% drop in USD/JPY within minutes, followed by another slide, sparked talk of renewed Japanese intervention after the Bank of Japan’s earlier $96 billion sales. Authorities appear satisfied with price action, but Turner says a likely Fed hike in mid-September should keep USD/JPY supported unless the Bank […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
US Dollar: Hedging impulse fades as holdings stabilize – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the July FOMC-driven Dollar hedging impulse has largely run its course, with early signs of USD buying returning against EUR, MXN and CAD. Trade-weighted Dollar holdings are historically light, suggesting scope for stabilization, but a sustained recovery still depends on stronger U.S. asset demand and renewed real-rate leadership. Dollar hedges […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago