- EUR/GBP recovery from 0.8654 lows remains capped below 0.8680.
- UK Retail Sales beat expectations in March, but mainly due to fuel sales.
- The stalemate in Iran keeps the EUR and the GBP vulnerable against the US Dollar.
The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, trading at 0.8675 at the time of writing, with resistance at the 0.8680 area capping Thursday’s rebound from 0.8654 lows. The strong UK retail consumption data, which has shown a larger-than-expected rebound in March, has failed to make any significant impact on the pair so far.
Data released by National Statistics on Friday revealed that UK Retail Sales rose by 0.7% in March, following a 0.6% contraction in February, and beating expectations of a 0.2% gain. The core Retail Sales, excluding fuel and automobile sales, however, rose at a modest 0.2% pace in March, in line with the market expectations, also after a 0.6% decline in the previous month.
Higher energy costs are a concern for UK businesses and consumers
On Thursday, preliminary UK business activity showed that both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to expand at healthy levels, but costs reached their highest levels since records began, clouding the outlook for future economic activity.
Later in the day, the GfK Consumer Confidence index deteriorated to its lowest levels in three years. UK consumers have grown more pessimistic, wary that prices will continue growing amid the energy shock triggered by Iran’s war and that mortgage costs will increase, assuming that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates. These figures hurt the Pound and provided some support to a weak Euro.
In Europe, the focus on Friday is on the German IFO business climate data, which is also expected to have deteriorated in April, weighed by the higher costs of energy.
On the geopolitical front, the peace process between Iran and the US remains stalled while tensions between the two countries grow. Iran released footage of a seizure of a cargo vessel on the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy any ship mining the waterway. The escalating tensions and the absence of news about the new round of talks, scheduled for this week, are weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar.
