CAD

• USD/CAD slips as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar strengthens amid a modest rise in oil prices.
• Lebanon’s army recorded multiple Israeli ceasefire violations after the truce took effect.
• The US Dollar Index gains support from safe-haven demand amid cautious sentiment ahead of weekend US–Iran talks.

USD/CAD remains subdued for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair inches lower as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) edges higher amid a slight increase in oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price holds gains near $90.00 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices receive support from supply concerns, which could be attributed to the market caution surrounding the United States (US)-Iran ceasefire talks.

CNN reported on Friday that the Lebanese army said that it recorded multiple ceasefire violations by Israel after the truce went into effect. Lebanon accused Israel of committing “several acts of aggression,” saying intermittent shelling has impacted several villages in southern Lebanon. The army urged citizens to delay returning to southern towns and villages in light of the alleged ceasefire violations.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he had spoken with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, adding that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire that began at 5 PM ET.

However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair is restrained as the US Dollar Index (DXY) receives support from increased safe-haven demand amid market caution ahead of the upcoming meeting between the United States (US) and Iran scheduled for the weekend.

Washington and Tehran are expected to resume their discussions over the weekend, with President Trump expressing optimism that both nations could secure a permanent ceasefire before it expires next week.

• USD/CAD falls as the US Dollar weakens on improved sentiment amid Middle East de-escalation hopes.
• Trump said the war is “close to over,” with reports suggesting a possible two-week ceasefire extension.
• Easing energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further tightening.

USD/CAD loses ground for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.3730 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground on improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” A Bloomberg report indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

The Greenback faced additional pressure from easing energy prices, which helped ease inflation concerns and tempered expectations of further central bank tightening. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady this month and possibly for the rest of the year.

However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face challenges with easing oil prices. It is important to note that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

Reports suggested that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for peace negotiations, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut under a dual blockade. However, Tehran may permit vessels to transit freely via the Omani side of the Strait if an agreement is reached to prevent a renewed escalation in hostilities.

• USD/CAD edges up to near 1.3780; outlook remains worsened on hopes of US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
• US President Trump expresses confidence that the war with Iran is close to over.
• Investors await the announcement of another round of US-Iran talks.

The USD/CAD pair trades slightly higher to near 1.3780 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair gained a temporary ground after posting a fresh three-week low near 1.3730 on Tuesday; however, the outlook remains uncertain amid hopes that the United States (US) and Iran could reach a permanent ceasefire soon.

Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News, “I view it as very close to over,” when asked how long the war with Iran will continue.

Meanwhile, US Vice President (VP) JD Vance has also expressed confidence, in a public event, that both sides are working towards a deal, and talks are taking place via channels including Pakistan. Vance added, “Discussions have made tremendous progress, and the current ceasefire holds for a seventh consecutive day.”

During the press time, market sentiment remains risk-on amid hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire. S&P 500 futures hold onto Tuesday’s gains near 6,970. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 98.20, but is still close to its over six-week low of 97.97 posted on Tuesday.

US Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Going forward, investors will focus on the outcome of the second round of US-Iran talks, whose date has not been confirmed, but will likely take place before the expiration of the two-week ceasefire on April 21, according to Reuters.

On the domestic front, traders do not expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates this year anymore amid optimism on the US-Iran truce.

• USD/CAD struggles as reports suggest further US–Iran talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire.
• President Trump said Tehran initiated contact, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled willingness for lawful dialogue.
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government on Monday.

USD/CAD remains subdued for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid eased risk aversion following reports that the United States (US) and Iran may hold further talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce ends.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. Vance stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.

The Greenback weakens as markets scale back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, with easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pressured oil prices.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran-related energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations, adding he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target within a year.

The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face challenges amid lower oil prices, given the fact that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States. Crude oil prices fall as supply concerns ease after reports of US-Iran further talks.

In Canada, CBC News reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government on Monday, strengthening his ability to advance legislation aimed at navigating a more divided geopolitical landscape. The victory gives Carney’s Liberals 172 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.

• USD/CAD struggles to build on its modest gains amid a combination of factors.
• The door for further diplomacy remains open, capping the USD and the major.
• Rallying Oil prices underpin the Loonie and act as a headwind for spot prices.

The USD/CAD pair retreats a few pips from the Asian session high and currently trades around the 1.3860-1.3855 region, up around 0.15% for the day. Meanwhile, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of a modest recovery from sub-1.3800 levels, or over a two-week low set on Friday.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the weekly bullish gap opening amid reports that regional countries are racing to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table within days. This keeps the door open for further diplomacy and caps the safe-haven Greenback. Moreover, an intraday rally in Crude Oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and contributes to capping the USD/CAD pair.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – rallies back to the $105/barrel mark in reaction to failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend. In fact, US Vice President JD Vance said that he placed a final and best offer on the table, but Iran declined to accept the terms, leading to a stalemate. Meanwhile, Iranian state media said that excessive demands sank the possibility of an agreement.

Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire. Adding to this, continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon raise the risk of a renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East and support oil prices. However, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets should limit deeper losses for the buck and the USD/CAD pair.

Data released on Friday showed that inflation in the US surged by the most in nearly four years during March. Apart from this, the war-driven surge in elevated energy prices led investors to abandon bets on Fed rate cuts and shift focus to potential interest rate hikes this year. The outlook triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, which favors the USD bulls and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

• USD/CAD rises as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar weakens amid falling oil prices.
• WTI drops over 11.5% this week after the US–Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, easing supply concerns.
• US official confirms Lebanon–Israel talks will be held next week in Washington, DC.

USD/CAD gains ground after four days of losses, trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price holds losses after experiencing volatility, trading around $91.80 per barrel at the time of writing. The WTI price is down by over 11.5% for the week, at the time of writing, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

However, crude oil prices may regain ground as Israeli strikes on Lebanon and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz strain diplomatic efforts. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that there is “no ceasefire in Lebanon” and Israel would continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force” as the country’s military launched fresh strikes.

Reuters reported that a US State Department official confirmed that talks between Lebanon and Israel will take place next week in Washington, DC. “We can confirm that the Department will host a meeting next week to discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Israel and Lebanon,” said a US official.

US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March Meeting Minutes suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that inflationary risks linked to higher oil prices are becoming more balanced. Traders await the US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) report due later in the North American session.