Wealth - Currency Hedger

Trade of the day: GBPCHF (16.04.2026)

April 16, 2026

Facts

GBPCHF pair moved back above the 14-day exponential moving average (EMA14; light purple) yesterday, despite a brief dip below 1.058 during the early session.
One week Risk Reversal indicator has reached its highest level since July 2024.
RSI is currently oscillating between 50 and 60.

Recommendation

Long Position (BUY) at market price in GBPCHF
Target Prices (Take Profit): 1.06340 (TP1), 1.06645 (TP2)
Stop Loss (SL): 1.05400

Source: xStation5

Opinion

The GBPCHF sell-off triggered by the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East capped months of Sterling weakness, driven by growth concerns and expectations of UK rate cuts. Approximately one week after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the pair initiated an upward trajectory. This shift is supported by the UK’s significant exposure to surging natural gas prices, which increases the risk of an inflationary rebound and a return to interest rate hikes.

Following a correction earlier this week, the pair is gradually rebounding, confirming the ongoing trend. While the UK still faces a high risk of stagflation, today’s GDP data (+0.5% m/m; exceeding the Reuters consensus of 0.1%) has somewhat cooled recession fears amid energy price inflation. Growing optimism is also reflected in the options market: the 1-week Risk Reversal is at its highest since July 2024, indicating a decrease in hedging demand against Sterling declines (i.e., fewer PUT options).

Sterling should remain supported against the Franc in the short term, regardless of further developments in the Strait of Hormuz. In an escalation scenario, concerns over energy price pressure would exert symmetrical pressure on the Bank of England to resume rate hikes (the market currently prices one 25 bps hike for September). Conversely, de-escalation would reduce fears of economic stagnation and dampen demand for safe-haven assets, including the Franc. It is worth noting that the Franc also lost ground against the Dollar in March, suggesting it was not the primary choice for investors seeking a “safe harbor” for capital.

Methodology

This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the GBPCHF chart and a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (focusing on UK monetary policy).

Directional Bias: Established using moving averages, price action, and market expectations regarding central bank responses to the Middle East conflict.
Exit Strategy: Target and Stop Loss levels were determined using Fibonacci retracements of the latest downward leg, Bollinger Bands, and Price Action. TP1: Set at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, coinciding with the upper Bollinger Band on the 14-day interval. TP2: Set at the resistance level established between February 2nd and 3rd. Stop Loss: Placed at the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA.
TP1: Set at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, coinciding with the upper Bollinger Band on the 14-day interval.
TP2: Set at the resistance level established between February 2nd and 3rd.
Stop Loss: Placed at the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA.

Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

April 14, 2026

Facts:

EUR/USD is trading at 1.18 12:30 PM GMT on Tuesday, April 14, one hour ahead of the U.S March PPI release
The pair has managed to break above both the 200- and 100-session exponential moving averages (EMA200 and EMA100)
The daily RSI is above 65, while MACD remains supportive, and the pair is trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend that began on January 27

Recommendation:

Position: Short EUR/USD at market price
Take Profit: 1.16646
Stop Loss: 1.18881

View:

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has re-entered an upward trend, but the rebound—driven by growing optimism around a potential resolution of the U.S.–Iran conflict—has been unusually sharp. At the same time, conditions in global energy markets—on which Europe is more dependent than the U.S remain challenging. IEA President Fatih Birol indicated that normalization of supply from the Middle East could take up to two years due to the scale of infrastructure damage. As a result, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the late-January downtrend, further reinforced by prior price reactions (February consolidation), may act as a significant resistance level for EUR/USD. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is likely to persist, with Iran maintaining that the U.S. will not control this key trade route. In an escalation scenario, sentiment toward EUR/USD may gradually weaken, and even if the conflict ultimately resolves favorably for Europe, the pair could experience elevated volatility along the way. Also, multiple US macro data signals that price pressure is starting to rise across the economy, which may lead to still quite ‘hawkish’ Fed stance ahead of the summer. Technically, the daily RSI has risen to 65, while the hourly RSI stands at 79.1—both suggesting overbought conditions. Given this setup, a short position is favored, targeting 1.16646 with a protective stop at 1.18881. M

Source: xStation5

Scenario Analysis – What to expect from weekend peace talks

April 11, 2026

Markets are in a jubilant mood as we lead up to the weekend. Spurred by a milder March reading of US inflation than expected, rate cut expectations are building, and stocks are rallying. Headline CPI in the US rose at a 3.4% annual rate, a hefty jump from the 2.4% rate in February, but lower than the 3.5% expected core prices rose by a 2.6% annual rate, also weaker than expected. The BLS reported that the index for energy rose by 10% in March, driven by a 21% rise in the price of gasolene.

US price growth not as bad as feared

The jump in gasolene prices accounted for three quarters of the rise in inflation last month, according to the BLS. Airline fares also rose sharply last month, but this was partly offset by a drop in medical costs and in used car prices. Today’s data suggests two things: 1, the inflationary impact from this crisis has been huge, but it is offset by weaker inflation growth elsewhere, such as a moderate increase in shelter costs, a drop in the cost of utilities and no change in food prices last month. 2, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, then the impact on inflation could spread to food prices and to core inflation, which typically takes longer to absorb energy price shocks.

The immediate market reaction has been relief. A higher-than-expected reading for inflation could have spooked financial markets as we lead up to the weekend. Instead, this supports current expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve by year end, which is boosting the market mood.

Markets optimistic about peace talks

Some concrete economic data that quantifies the effect of the war as being less onerous than first anticipated, combined with hopes for successful peace talks is helping US stocks to extend their longest winning streak this year. Rather than selling stocks on a Friday in case of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East over the weekend, the market is willing to ‘give peace a chance.’

Stocks have strong week, as dollar reverses course

The dollar is weaker across the board on Friday after the lower-than-expected US inflation print, which is boosting hopes of a rate cut from the Fed. However, the bond market is less enthusiastic, and bonds are selling off across Europe after Forties crude from the North Sea reached a fresh record high above $147 per barrel. Until the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and Gulf energy infrastructure is operational, the bond market is likely to trade with a more cautious tone compared to stocks.

Stocks are on course for their best weekly performance of the year so far, as you can see below, and this has been spurred by the market’s conviction that President Trump will continue with a ceasefire and the conflict in the Middle East is now at its end stages. The Trump reversal index is now back at levels last reached before the war started. The market is pricing for a positive outcome from the negotiations between the US and Iran this weekend, below, we assess potential outcomes from this weekend’s talks and their impact on financial markets:

Peace talks, assessing the potential outcomes

1, Positive outcome: The two sides agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which leads to an immediate reopening of the waterway. An even better outcome would be one without tariffs to pass through the Strait. The oil price is likely to fall back to pre-war levels for Brent, between $75 and $80 per barrel, stocks could surge and bonds will also rally, leading to another sharp decline in global bond yields. We believe there is a low probability, 30% or less, of this perfect outcome happening straight away.

2, Moderate outcome: The negotiations end without a deal, but more talks are expected. The prospect of prolonged negotiations could knock sentiment at the start of next week, but any weakness could fade if there are continued pledges to work towards a lasting peace. While stocks may extend this week’s rally, a high oil price could stymie further gains, especially if there is no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We think that this is the most likely outcome and think there is a 70-80% chance that further talks will be needed.

3, Negative outcome: The talks fail, both sides walk away and the bombing in Iran and around the Gulf resumes. This could see the oil price reach fresh highs above $120 per barrel for Brent, stocks will tank and bond yields will surge. We believe that this is also a low probability outcome, with 10-15% chance.

Overall, the outcome of negotiations are the main focus for markets as we end the week.

Chart 1: S&P 500, weekly performance chart 1 year

Source: XTB and Bloomberg

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

Currency Talk – EUR/CAD NZD/USD, USD/JPY

April 9, 2026

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse.
Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

EURCAD
At the end of March, EURCAD prices broke out of a major 1:1 downtrend pattern at the 1.5948 level, paving the way for further gains. We are currently seeing a continuation of the uptrend, and counting from the March 9 low, we can identify a local 1:1 uptrend pattern. In the event of a correction, the key short-term support remains at the 1.6020 level, where the lower boundary of this pattern is located. Conversely, only a return of the price below 1.5948 could suggest a shift to a downtrend. For now, sentiment remains bullish.

EURCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD
Since February of this year, NZDUSD has been trending downward, with the market repeatedly forming corrections of similar magnitude. We are currently observing a test of the key resistance level resulting from the 1:1 Fibonacci retracement at 0.5828. A sustained break below this level could lead to a shift in sentiment toward an uptrend. On the other hand, defending this level and keeping the price within the downtrend could result in a return to declines and a test of recent lows at 0.5680. The current zone is of critical importance in the short term.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

USDJPY
Since mid-February, USDJPY has been in a strong uptrend. Recently, one of the larger corrections occurred, covering a range of approximately 240 pips. The current correction has the same range as the previous one, marked in green, which allows us to identify key support at the 158.10 level, based on a 1:1 ratio. If this level holds, there is a chance for the uptrend to resume and for new highs to be tested. Conversely, a break below this level could lead to a trend reversal and a deepening of the decline.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation

Trade of The Day – GBP/AUD

April 7, 2026

Facts:
The price bounced off the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 1.9255
GBPAUD sits below the 100-period moving average form H4 interval

Recommendation:
Trade: Short position on GBPAUD at market price
Target: 1.8765, 1.8518
Stop: 1.9475

Opinion: Looking at the GBPAUD chart at the H4 interval, one can see that the price bounced off the key resistance today. The price bounced off the resistance marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 1.9255. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below the aforementioned resistance, the main trend remains downward. In addition the price sits below the 100-period moving average from the H4 interval which also confirms the bearish scenario. We recommend going short GBPAUD at market price with two targets: 1.8765 and 1.8518. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.9475 Source: xStation5

Commodity Talk – Oil, Natgas, Gold and Cocoa

April 7, 2026

Oil:

Brent crude oil exceeds $110 on the June contract amid further escalation of the situation in the Middle East.
Despite the emergence of prospects for a ceasefire, Iran has rejected all terms from the United States.
Iran indicated it wants permanent peace and the withdrawal of American troops. A ceasefire could be preparation for a stronger strike.
The next 48-hour deadline announced by Trump expires at 12:00 GMT from Tuesday to Wednesday, although Iran has repeatedly indicated it does not intend to comply.
The Wall Street Journal indicates that the United States is preparing to strike energy and transport infrastructure in Iran.
During the holiday weekend, the highest number of ships since the beginning of the conflict passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is related to agreements between Iran and several Asian countries.
Ships from countries such as India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and China have recently passed through the Strait of Hormuz. It is unknown whether the agreements on the passage of ships concerned the flag or specific units.
Pakistan was said to have reached an agreement for the passage of 20 units; theoretically, all Indian units can cross the strait. Iran indicates that all ships from Iraq can also freely pass through the strait. However, there are no details of such agreements, and additionally, vessel insurance remains a key aspect.
OPEC+ agreed during a weekend meeting that it will increase production by another 206,000 barrels per day in May at the moment the Strait of Hormuz opens.
It is worth emphasizing that Russia also has major problems with increasing production and exports, which is related to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

New production quotas for countries in the agreement on voluntary production cuts. It is worth noting that countries like Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and also Russia have significantly reduced their production volumes recently. Source: OPEC

Oil is currently in a zone of strong supply and is no longer reacting as dynamically as it was a few days ago. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but some ships are passing through, so prices may be under slight pressure. Nevertheless, a few ships will not lead to a significant improvement in the global supply situation. Source: xStation5

Gas:

Gas prices fell toward $2.8/MMBTU due to the end of the heating season in the USA, although on Monday we observed an attempted recovery due to forecasts indicating lower temperatures.
Gas production on Monday was 110.4 bcfd, which was an almost 3% increase compared to last year. In turn, domestic demand was almost 73 bcfd, which was a level nearly 7% lower than a year ago.
LNG exports amounted to 20.4 bcfd, which was a level almost 2% higher than in the previous week. It is worth emphasizing that despite global tension in the LNG gas market due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the United States cannot significantly increase export capacities beyond current levels due to the use of full export capacities.
It is expected that by 2030, export capacities in North America will increase to approx. 30 bcfd.

Forecasts for the next 2 weeks indicate that temperatures will be higher than standard. This means that gas consumption for heating purposes should be minimal. Nevertheless, seasonal forecasts suggest that in the summer period, temperatures should also be higher, which means higher consumption in the future. Source: NOAA

Gas inventories have fallen toward the 5-year average, but are now starting to rebound. In March, we had 2 reports that showed a rebound in inventories, despite the theoretical duration of the heating season. Source: EIA

The price is at very important support around $2.8/MMBTU. Source: xStation5

Gold:

Gold remains at lower levels after Friday’s pullback. Gold still remains trapped amid rising expectations for interest rate hikes and due to massive geopolitical risk and uncertainty regarding further strong global debt growth.
According to a World Gold Council report, central banks still intend to buy gold in 2026.
Goldman Sachs maintains price forecasts above $5500 per ounce at the end of this year.
Signing an agreement to end the fighting or a simple ceasefire could theoretically mean a reduction in geopolitical risk, but also mean a temporary rebound in inflation.
Currently, we see that gold or silver behaves more as a risk asset, dependent on interest rates, which is why we observe a high correlation with American indices.
It is worth remembering, however, that in 2020, when all assets lost value very strongly, gold rebounded quite quickly after a larger correction.
The current correction since the beginning of March is approx. 15%, although at one point the drop was nearly 25%.

The correlation between the price of gold and the US500 has been quite high since almost the beginning of this year. Nevertheless, the scale of the US500 rebound recently does not coincide so strongly with the rebound in the gold price. Source: xStation5

Cocoa:

The price of cocoa rebounded at the turn of March and April. However, the peaks from March 11 were not broken, which means a lack of a new sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
A Bloomberg Intelligence report indicates that chocolate sales in the USA during the Easter period were 5% lower, which continues to mean destruction of consumer demand due to the persistence of high prices.
Cheaper cocoa beans should enter the market in the second half of the year and have the greatest impact on product prices in 2027. Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that producers, in order to recover losses, will continue to maintain higher margins with lower bean prices.
Cocoa inventories on ICE rose to a 1.5-year peak, reaching almost 2.4 million bags.
Just before the start of the mid-season, about half of Ivory Coast and 2/3 of Ghana are currently experiencing dry conditions, which could potentially reduce harvests in the coming months.
Nevertheless, taking into account the increase in inventories and oversupply for the second year in a row, a strong price rebound at this point due to potentially worse production is unlikely. The key aspect of the market at this moment is low demand, which shows that chocolate producers have dealt with the lower availability of the raw material that took place after 2022.
It is worth remembering that the massive increase in fertilizer prices after 2022 also resulted in less fertilization of cocoa crops, which affected the reduction of production in 2023 and 2024 (aside from weather factors). Therefore, the current increase in fertilizer prices could potentially affect the 2026/2027 main season.

The cocoa price remains at low levels due to the lack of signs of a demand rebound. Theoretically, we should observe an improvement in the second half of this year after the exhaustion of inventories from previous years. Source: xStation5

GBP/USD climbs above 1.3240 as Iran hopes dent US Dollar

April 6, 2026

GBP/USD rises as ceasefire speculation weighs on the US Dollar.
Softer US services data added pressure on the Greenback.
Traders now await US inflation, jobless claims and Fed minutes.

The British Pound (GBP) advances by over 0.40% on Monday as US President Donald Trump said the Tuesday deadline he has set for Iran to make a deal is final, while rumors of a possible de-escalation weighed on the US Dollar (USD). GBP/USD trades around the 1.3240 figure at the time of writing.

Sterling gains as ceasefire rumors lift mood, soften Greenback

Risk appetite improved on Monday after Axios reported that US and Israeli officials, along with regional mediators, are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could be extended if needed. Investors cheered the news, as depicted by US equities posting gains of 0.15% to 0.52%.

Data from the US showed that business activity deteriorated, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), as the Services PMI in March slipped from 56.1 to 54, below economists’ forecasts of 55. The Prices Paid sub-component of the PMI rose to its highest level since October 2022, coming at 70.7, sparked by the rise of oil and fuel costs, commented Steve Miller, the Chair of the ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee.

Last week, strong US jobs data posted the largest job gains in 15 months and a dip in the Unemployment Rate. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 178K in March, exceeding estimates of 60K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.

Consequently, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates are none, according to data from Prime Market Terminal, which reflects that the Fed funds rate will remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range, steady in 2026.

Fed interest rate probabilities

Traders’ eyes will be on the release of US inflation figures, jobless claims, and the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3239. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the downward-sloping resistance trend line from 1.3869 and trades under the clustered simple moving averages near 1.3500, which now cap the upside. The persistent rejection along that descending line, combined with price pressure below the 50–100–200-day group, signals sellers retaining control, even as the longer-term rising support trend line from 1.3035 still prevents a steeper breakdown.

Initial resistance is now at 1.3320, where recent rebounds have stalled beneath the descending trend line, followed by 1.3435 and the moving-average zone around 1.35. A daily close above that 1.35 area would be needed to dilute the current bearish tone and reopen 1.3600. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3187, with 1.3130 and the rising trend line from 1.3035 below; a clean break under that trend support would confirm a deeper bearish extension toward 1.3050.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.23%	-0.28%	0.02%	-0.22%	-0.33%	-0.45%	-0.25%
EUR	0.23%		-0.03%	0.24%	0.00%	-0.13%	-0.25%	-0.05%
GBP	0.28%	0.03%		0.25%	0.00%	-0.09%	-0.22%	0.00%
JPY	-0.02%	-0.24%	-0.25%		-0.23%	-0.36%	-0.49%	-0.28%
CAD	0.22%	-0.00%	-0.01%	0.23%		-0.10%	-0.23%	-0.02%
AUD	0.33%	0.13%	0.09%	0.36%	0.10%		-0.14%	0.09%
NZD	0.45%	0.25%	0.22%	0.49%	0.23%	0.14%		0.23%
CHF	0.25%	0.05%	-0.01%	0.28%	0.02%	-0.09%	-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

GBP/JPY Price Analysis – Pound recovery hits resistance at 211.45

April 6, 2026

GBP/JPY picks up on risk appetite but remains capped below 211.45.
Hopes of a peace deal in Iran have triggered a moderate sentiment improvement.
Yen downside attempts remain limited, as intervention risks loom.

The Pound (GBP) is trading higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, favoured by a moderate optimism amid news of a peace plan to end the war in Iran. The pair, however, remains capped below the 211.45 resistance area so far, although technical indicators are popping up into bullish territory.

News that Iran and the US have received the framework of a plan for a 45-day ceasefire that might end the hostilities immediately and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been welcomed by the market. Investors have responded by selling safe-haven assets like the US Dollar for the benefit of riskier-perceived assets like the Pound.

Nevertheless, traders are wary of placing significant Yen shorts. The USD/JPY remains relatively close to 160.00 a level which, according to market speculation, might unleash an intervention by Tokyo authorities to stem undesired JPY weakness.

GBP/JPY shows a mildly bullish trend, after bouncing at 209.64 lows in late March, with the highest lows posted last week. A bullish engulfing candle in the daily chart might strengthen the case of a deeper correction if the pair closes the day beyond 211.45.

Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart show an improved momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizing just above the 50 mark and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remaining in positive territory.

Price action suggests that we might be in the C-D leg of a Gartley pattern, targeting beyond the mentioned 211.45 resistance area to the area between the March 24 and 27 lows, at 212.30, and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late-March sell-off, at 212.55.

To the downside, immediate support is the April 2 low, at 210.35, ahead of the mentioned March 31 low, at 209.64.