The pair bounced off the key resistance area near 0.7090 Short – term trend remains downward from the mid-May
Recommendation:
Trade: Short position on AUDUSD at market price Target: 0.6988, 0.6948 Stop: 0.7110
Opinion:
AUDUSD has been trading in a downward move recently. Looking at the H4 interval, one can see that the price bounced off the key 0.7090 resistance area. Red area near 0.7090 handle on the chart below is marked with previous price reactions, 100-period moving average from H1 interval, as well as upper limit of 1:1 structure. Taking this into account, continuation of the downward move looks to be the base case scenario for now. We recommend going short AUDUSD at market price with two targets: 0.6988 and 0.6948. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 0.7110.
NZD/USD weakens as broad caution and a steady US Dollar kept investors defensive ahead of updates on Iran’s nuclear program.
Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in June.
China’s Retail Sales fell 0.6% year-on-year in May, missing expectations of a flat reading.
NZD/USD extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5810 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady amid broad market caution. Investors remain on the defensive as they await further updates regarding Iran’s unresolved nuclear program.
Both Washington and Tehran have not released the official text of the agreement; major shipping lines are delaying vessel rerouting through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established.
Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply cautious. According to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, which could be attributed to the higher US inflation due to elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggles following a wave of weak economic data out of China. Because China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner, buying roughly one-third of all Kiwi goods exports, the New Zealand Dollar acts as a primary liquid proxy for the Chinese economy.
China’s domestic demand slumped sharply in May, with Retail Sales contracting by 0.6% year-on-year against expectations of a flat reading. Additionally, Fixed Asset Investment dropped at a faster pace of -4.1%, failing to meet the projected -2%. While Industrial Production offered a minor bright spot by coming in stronger-than-expected at 4.5%.
The Indian Rupee trades firmly against the US Dollar due to multiple tailwinds.
Lower oil prices and signs of improvement in FIIs sentiment towards the Indian stock market have strengthened the Indian Rupee.
The Fed is expected to leave interest rates steady on Wednesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens firmly against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair trades lower around 94.58 as lower oil prices due to the successive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following the signing of a peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran, and signs of improvement in sentiment of overseas investors towards the Indian stock market have strengthened the Indian Rupee.
In the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 rises slightly to near 7,640, but is close to its over eight-week low of 7,550 posted on Monday.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to outperform when oil prices remain lower.
US-Iran signs peace deal
On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran had signed and the Strait of Hormuz had fully reopened. Trump added that details of the deal will be released shortly, but confirmed that Tehran won’t have nuclear weapons.
Investors await details of the deal to get clarification regarding whether Hormuz remains toll-free or not. The resumption of normal traffic will keep oil prices lower, a scenario that will be favorable for the Indian currency.
FIIs turns of net buyers for first time in June
On Monday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) emerged as net buyers in the Indian stock market for the first time in June after diluting their stake worth Rs. 46,430.42 crore in the first two weeks. The sentiment of foreign investors towards the Indian equity market appears to have improved due to the US-Iran peace deal signing, which has eased the global risk-off impulse. In Monday’s session, FIIs bought shares worth Rs. 200.05 crore.
Investors await two-day Fed policy meeting
This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75%.
Investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s monetary policy guidance under the new Chairman Kevin Warsh, and interest and economic projections in the near-to-longer term.
US President Trump has provided significant breathing room to Chairman Warsh by giving him a free hand on decision-making, stating in recent days that he wants him to “do whatever he wants” and “be totally independent”, CNBC reported. While Trump was seen criticizing former Chairman Jerome Powell numerous times for not reducing interest rates quickly, despite inflationary pressures remaining higher.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays below 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades weakly at around 94.58, extending a corrective phase below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.2580, which now acts as the first topside barrier and keeps the near-term bias tilted lower.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.6 remains below the midline, suggesting waning bullish momentum and leaving the pair vulnerable while it holds under the short-term EMA cap.
On the topside, a daily close above the 20-day EMA around 95.26 would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained rebound towards 96.00. Looking down, the pair could extend the decline to the May 7 low at 94.03 if it fails to hold the June 15 low at 94.43.
AUD/USD remains subdued as the RBA held its Official Cash Rate steady at 4.35%, matching market expectations.
China’s Retail Sales fell 0.6% year-on-year in May, missing expectations of a flat reading.
Traders price in the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% this Wednesday.
AUD/USD pares its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 0.7050 during the Asian hours. The pair remains subdued as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles to shake off losses following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy update.
As widely anticipated by the market, the RBA decided to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% during its Tuesday meeting. The decision offered few surprises and lacked the hawkish spark needed to lift the currency, leaving the Australian Dollar highly sensitive to outside economic pressures.
Compounding the pressure on the AUD is a wave of weak economic data out of China. Because Australia’s economy relies heavily on commodity exports to Beijing, negative developments in China routinely drag down the antipodean currency.
China’s domestic demand slumped sharply in May, with Retail Sales contracting by 0.6% year-on-year against expectations of a flat reading. Additionally, Fixed Asset Investment dropped at a faster pace of -4.1%, failing to meet the projected -2%. While Industrial Production offered a minor bright spot by coming in stronger-than-expected at 4.5%, the overall data packet highlighted an uneven recovery that is weighing heavily on Aussie trader sentiment.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is holding steady as broad market caution keeps investors on the defensive. Geopolitical anxieties persist around Iran’s unresolved nuclear program, keeping risk appetite low. Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding has been signed to end the regional conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply skeptical because neither Washington nor Tehran has released the official text of the agreement. This ongoing uncertainty has driven defensive flows into the safe-haven greenback.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is universally expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East tensions have kept US inflation sticky, giving the central bank reason to hold steady. Market participants will be intensely focused on the upcoming press conference for crucial clues on how the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, intends to guide the central bank and shape monetary policy in this new era.
USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar remains stronger amid market caution ahead of further US-Iran peace talk updates.
Traders price in the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% this Wednesday.
Money markets expect the Swiss National Bank to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of the year.
USD/CHF gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7950 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady amid broad market caution. Investors remain on the defensive as they await further updates regarding Iran’s unresolved nuclear program.
Both Washington and Tehran have not released the official text of the agreement; major shipping lines are delaying vessel rerouting through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established.
Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply cautious. According to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, which could be attributed to the higher US inflation due to elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era.
Sharp declines in oil prices have helped alleviate inflationary pressures, reducing expectations for further monetary tightening. Consequently, money markets are now pricing in no additional interest rate changes from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for the remainder of the year.
This aligns with the latest data showing Swiss Producer and Import Prices fell 1.8% year-on-year in May. While this marks the softest pace of deflation in five months, easing from April’s 2.0% decline due to slower drops in import prices, the monthly figures caught markets off guard. On a month-over-month basis, the price index fell 0.4%, missing forecasts for a 0.4% increase and reversing April’s 0.8% gain.
The offshore yuan slipped to around 6.76 per dollar on Tuesday, retreating from a more than three-year high reached in the previous session as investors weighed a mixed set of economic data from China. New home prices across 70 cities marked the 35th consecutive month of contraction and remaining at their steepest pace since May 2025, while fixed-asset investment declined more than market expectations in the January–May period. Moreover, retail sales unexpectedly fell in May, marking the first annual decline since December 2022. Providing some support, industrial output exceeded market expectations in May, accelerating from April’s near three-year low. In addition, the surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to a five-month low in May. Adding to the currency’s pullback, Allianz Global Investors scaled back some of its bullish yuan positions and shifted to a neutral stance, locking in gains after a rally that propelled the yuan to become Asia’s best-performing major currency this year.
USD/CHF falls to around 0.7930 in Monday’s early European session.
US and Iran confirmed a ‘peace deal’ was reached, signing in Switzerland on Friday.
The Fed is widely anticipated to keep its interest rate steady as it remains in “wait-and-see” mode.
The USD/CHF pair slumps to near 0.7930, the lowest since June 5, during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) after the US and Iran announced a framework deal for peace. Traders brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a “great deal” to end the war with Iran. Iran’s National Security Council stated that the US naval blockade will be lifted immediately and the war will end on all fronts, including Lebanon. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the official signing ceremony for the “peace deal” will take place on Friday in Switzerland. Signs of progress in the US-Iran peace agreement boost the CHF and create a headwind for the pair.
The US central bank is set to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor the press conference and take more cues about how new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will lead the US central bank into its next era. Any hawkish remarks from Fed officials could lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.
Markets have priced in nearly a 64% chance of a Fed interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
NZD/USD holds strong despite New Zealand’s services sector contracting for a fourth straight month as May’s PSI dropped to 47.5.
The US Dollar declines as a US-Iran peace deal eases geopolitical tensions, lowering global inflation and interest rate concerns.
Iran stated final talks depend on US compliance, demanding an immediate and complete end to the maritime blockade.
NZD/USD gains ground after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 0.5850 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds ground following the release of domestic economic data.
New Zealand’s services sector continues to struggle, as the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell to 47.5 in May, down from a revised 48.7 in April. This marks the fourth consecutive month of contraction for the sector.
Concurrently, the broader economy is showing signs of a deeper slowdown. The Performance of Composite Index dropped from a revised 49.2 to 48.4, signaling its third straight month of contraction and its steepest decline since June 2025.
The NZD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines after the United States (US) and Iran had reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.
Washington and Tehran said on Sunday that they have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump stated that the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.
The United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany and Italy said that the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war.
Iran’s National Security Council confirmed a ceasefire agreement with the US, adding that final deal talks will start after the other party fulfills commitments under the memorandum of understanding. Iranian officials said the maritime blockade against Iran should end immediately and entirely.
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