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Australian Dollar gains as Mideast tensions ease, RBA rate expectations rise

  • AUD/USD rises as falling oil prices and a pause in the Middle East conflict weigh on the US Dollar.
  • US military caution and depleted interceptor supplies help curb further escalation with Iran for now.
  • Strong Australian June employment data boosts expectations of another RBA rate hike following upcoming inflation reports.

AUD/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive trading day, hovering near 0.7000 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines alongside a sharp drop in oil prices. This movement followed the United States (US) decision to refrain from striking Iran over the weekend, paired with Tehran suspending its own retaliatory strikes.

The brief US-Iran pause came after 13 days of escalating conflict. However, market participants remain cautious about potential supply disruptions as Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities along the Red Sea.

While the US did not officially disclose its reasons for halting the strikes, reports suggest growing concerns over depleting interceptor supplies and a shortage of remaining targets within Iran. Additionally, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly cautioned President Trump on Friday that continuing the campaign would severely strain critical munitions reserves.

Beyond geopolitical developments, investors are bracing for the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday before resuming rate hikes in September, though a minority of market participants still anticipate a surprise move at this week’s meeting.

Meanwhile, strong June employment data out of Australia has reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has already raised rates three times this year. Investors are now closely watching the June and Q2 inflation figures due later this week, as persistent price pressures continue to dominate the local outlook.

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Australian Dollar rebounds vs USD; Trump’s tariffs and US-Iran tensions cap gains

  • AUD/USD edges higher as Australia’s flash PMIs reaffirm RBA rate hike bets and lift the Aussie.
  • Energy-driven inflation fears fuel hawkish Fed expectations and benefit the USD amid Iran risks.
  • Traders look to the US PMIs for some impetus as the focus shifts to the FOMC meeting next week.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day’s slide back to the weekly trough. The mixed fundamental backdrop, however, warrants caution before confirming that the corrective slide from a nearly five-week high, around the 0.7025 area, touched on Tuesday has run its course and positioning for the resumption of the uptrend from the June low.

The US Dollar (USD) preserves its strong weekly gains to the highest level since June 26 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. A further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran remains supportive of the recent rise in crude oil prices to the highest level since June 11, which has been fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets.

Moreover, US President Donald Trump’s new trade tariffs temper investors’ appetite for riskier assets and further underpin the safe-haven Greenback. According to a notice released by the office of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the Trump administration is set to impose sweeping new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on 60 of the top trading partners, covering nearly all of the country’s imports.

The Australian Dollar (AUD), however, draws support from the better-than-expected release of domestic flash PMIs, signaling a second consecutive month of expansion for the broader private sector. This follows Thursday’s upbeat Australian employment details and reaffirms bets for more interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which helps limit the downside for the AUD/USD pair.

Traders now look forward to flash US PMIs, due later during the early North American session. Apart from this, incoming geopolitical headlines will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Meanwhile, the focus will remain glued to the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting next week, which should determine the near-term trajectory for the buck and the AUD/USD pair.

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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground above 113.50, bullish trend holds above 100-day SMA

  • AUD/JPY gains traction to near 113.85 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross maintains a constructive tone above the 100-day SMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 114.10; the first downside target to watch is 113.10. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.85 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) due to the interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, fears of possible intervention from Japanese authorities might cap the upside for the cross. 

After delivering three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) hikes earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% at its June policy meeting.

Economists warned that rising oil and fuel prices could cement a fourth interest rate rise this year if US President Donald Trump’s renewed conflict with Iran is not resolved within a week. 

Traders have raised their bets on an RBA rate hike since airstrikes resumed last week, now pricing in nearly a 23% odds of a hike in August and more than a 50% chance by December, according to the Guardian. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle band, keeping the broader uptrend intact. Price is advancing toward the Bollinger upper band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 60 suggests firm but not overstretched upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the Bollinger Bands’ upper band at 114.10. The next hurdle is located at the May 13 high of 114.74, en route to the 115.00 psychological level. 

On the downside, initial support is seen at the July 20 low of 113.10. The next contention level to watch is the 100-day SMA at 112.75, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 112.55, with a deeper cushion coming in at the lower band near 111.05 should a corrective pullback develop.

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Australian Dollar strengthens above 0.7000 despite rising US-Iran tensions

  • AUD/USD gains ground to around 0.7010 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
  • The US launches further strikes on Iran. 
  • The RBA is in a “wait-and-see” mode as it monitors key economic data ahead of its next policy meeting. 

The AUD/USD pair drifts higher to near 0.7010 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. The Australian employment report will take center stage later on Thursday. 

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Monday that it completed more strikes against Iran, hours after US President Donald Trump warned that Tehran would pay for the deaths of three American soldiers over the past few days, per CNN. 

Iranian state media reported explosions across southern Iran, including on Qeshm Island and in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, Isfahan and Konarak. Kuwait also said that its air defences were activated against Iranian missile and drone attacks. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could weigh on riskier assets such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. 

After delivering three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) hikes earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% at its June policy meeting. The Australian central bank is currently in a “wait-and-see” mode to evaluate how its tightening cycle is impacting sticky core inflation and a cooling domestic economy.

The ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures implied a 16% chance of an RBA rate hike in August, with a roughly 50% to 60% possibility of one more hike by December 2026.  

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AUD/USD Recovers to near 0.7000 amid US Dollar’s weakness

  • AUD/USD rises to near 0.6995 after a weak opening.
  • The Fed is highly anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting later this month.
  • Soft US CPI data for June forced traders to pare hawkish Fed bets.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.12% higher to near 0.6995 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair bounces back after a weak opening, as the US Dollar faces selling pressure amid intensified expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not hike interest rates in the policy meeting later this month.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower around 100.70. The USD Index fell sharply after a strong opening move.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the July meeting are 85.6%, up from 65.8% recorded last week. Market participants turned confident that the Fed will maintain the status quo in the July meeting after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which showed that inflationary pressures cooled down.

On the Australian Dollar front, the currency outperforms its major peers, following the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary policy announcement, in which it left Prime Lending Rates (PLRs) unchanged.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6990 at press time, holding a modestly bullish near-term bias as it extends above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6970. The pair has reclaimed this short-term trend indicator after its late-June weakness, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.8 sits just above the neutral line, suggesting stabilizing upside momentum rather than aggressive buying pressure.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA near 0.6970, which is likely to act as the first line of defence on any pullback, followed by the recent price troughs below 0.6950 if sellers regain control. Below 0.6950, the March 30 low at 0.6874 will be the key support level. As long as spot holds above the 0.6970 region on a daily closing basis, the technical tone should remain mildly constructive. Looking up, the pair could extend its advance towards 0.7100 if it manages to break above the July 15 high at 0.7021.

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AUD moves away from three-week top as geopolitics and Fed hike bets lift USD

  • AUD/USD attracts some sellers for the second straight day amid a modest USD uptick.
  • Escalating US-Iran tensions, reviving inflation fears, and Fed hike bets underpin the buck.
  • The RBA’s relatively hawkish stance and steady data from China could support the AUD.

The AUD/USD pair remains on the back foot for the second straight day and slides to the 0.7980 region during the Asian session on Friday. Nevertheless, spot prices seem poised to register gains for the third week in a row and remain within striking distance of a nearly three-week high, touched on Wednesday.

The US Dollar (USD) looks to build on the previous day’s goodish recovery from a nearly one-month low amid a combination of supporting factors and exerts some downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran keeps geopolitical risk in play. Furthermore, concerns about energy-driven inflation revive bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in 2026 and underpin the safe-haven Greenback.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, the US stepped up its attacks on Thursday and carried out a sixth consecutive night of air strikes against Iran. The US also struck an empty oil tanker headed for Kharg Island as part of its renewed naval blockade of Iranian ports. Tehran responded by attacking US military facilities across the region, raising fears of a return to all-out war and triggering the global flight to safety.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had threatened to expand the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes. Furthermore, Reuters reported that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route, posing a potent new threat to global energy supplies. This remains supportive of elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and bolstering bets for at least one Fed rate hike by the year-end.

Market expectations were reaffirmed by Thursday’s upbeat US Initial Jobless Claims data and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Adding to this, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called on Thursday for modestly higher interest rates to win a battle the central bank has been losing for the past five years. Separately, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that he would be open to raising rates if inflation does not show near-term improvement.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls and backs the case for a further depreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) relatively hawkish stance, along with steady economic data from China, could lend support to the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD), warranting caution before placing aggressive bearish bets on the currency pair and positioning for deeper losses.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.00%0.07%0.03%-0.04%0.17%0.09%0.00%
EUR-0.01%0.07%0.00%-0.07%0.17%0.09%-0.01%
GBP-0.07%-0.07%-0.09%-0.14%0.09%0.03%-0.08%
JPY-0.03%0.00%0.09%-0.06%0.16%0.06%-0.01%
CAD0.04%0.07%0.14%0.06%0.22%0.14%0.04%
AUD-0.17%-0.17%-0.09%-0.16%-0.22%-0.09%-0.18%
NZD-0.09%-0.09%-0.03%-0.06%-0.14%0.09%-0.09%
CHF-0.00%0.01%0.08%0.01%-0.04%0.18%0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Trade of The Day – GBP/AUD

Facts: GBPAUD is trading above the 100-period moving average from D1 interval The pair broke above the resistance at 1.9190 The pair invalidated 1:1 structure

Recommendation: Trade: Long position on GBPAUD at market price Target: 1.9735, 2.0000 Stop: 1.9140

Opinion: GBPAUD has been trading in a downward trend since April 2025, but the pair may be experiencing a trend reversal. Looking at the pair at the D1 interval, one can see that the price broke above the upper limit of the 1:1 structure which, according to the Overbalance strategy, may herald a resumption of an upward trend. As long as the price sits above 1.9190, the further upward move is the base case scenario. We recommend going long GBPAUD at market price with two targets: 1.9735 and 2.0000. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 1.9140. Source: xStation5

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AUD/JPY Price Declines below 113.50, while maintaining bullish near‑term structure

  • AUD/JPY softens to near 113.45 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The cross maintains a constructive outlook, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance level is seen at 113.70; the initial support level to watch is 112.65. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the authorities are ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed. She added that the officials will track market trends and economic data to ensure fiscal sustainability.

Senior officials from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) noted that a delay in stimulus adjustment amid high inflation risk could trigger an economic downturn. However, a Reuters survey showed earlier Thursday that nearly half of Japanese firms are experiencing negative business impact from the BoJ’s interest rate hikes, with higher borrowing costs hurting bottom lines and discouraging capital investment. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-period middle band, suggesting the broader uptrend is still supported despite recent consolidation. The latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 57 keeps momentum on the constructive side, hinting that buyers retain control as long as the pair stays comfortably above the lower Bollinger band at 111.10.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger upper band around 113.70, where a sustained break would open the door to the May 13 high of 114.74.

On the downside, the first layer of support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 112.40, while a deeper pullback towards the lower band at 111.10 would be needed to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish structure.