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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rallies to June 2022 high, closer to mid-0.7200s on weaker USD

  • AUD/USD attracts strong follow-through buyers amid a combination of supporting factors.
  • US-Iran peace deal hopes and receding hawkish Fed expectations weigh heavily on the USD.
  • The RBA’s hawkish outlook benefits the Aussie and contributes to the positive momentum.

The AUD/USD pair is seen building on the previous day’s bounce from the 0.7135 region, or the weekly low, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh high since June 2022, closer to mid-0.7200s, during the Asian session, and is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

The incoming headlines fuel optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and boost investors’ confidence, undermining the safe-haven buck and benefiting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Furthermore, sliding Crude Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This exerts additional pressure on the USD, which, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook, contributes to the bid tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices hold a bullish near-term bias following the recent resilience below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said support is pegged at 0.7145, which now underpins the broader upturn from recent lows. Moreover, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 suggests strong but maturing upside momentum, while the positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints that buyers still retain control.

This, in turn, suggests that any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 100-period EMA on H4, at 0.7145, as the broader structure remains constructive above this zone. A sustained break beneath this moving average would weaken the current bullish tone and open the door to a deeper corrective phase on the four-hour timeframe.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.20%-0.18%-0.06%-0.14%-0.69%-0.75%-0.20%
EUR0.20%0.02%0.15%0.07%-0.48%-0.57%0.00%
GBP0.18%-0.02%0.13%0.06%-0.50%-0.57%0.00%
JPY0.06%-0.15%-0.13%-0.09%-0.64%-0.72%-0.12%
CAD0.14%-0.07%-0.06%0.09%-0.55%-0.62%-0.04%
AUD0.69%0.48%0.50%0.64%0.55%-0.07%0.50%
NZD0.75%0.57%0.57%0.72%0.62%0.07%0.57%
CHF0.20%-0.00%-0.00%0.12%0.04%-0.50%-0.57%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Currency Talk – AUDCAD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for AUD/CAD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour timeframe (D1/H4). The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. AUDCAD After several tests, the AUDCAD exchange rate has broken through the key support level at 0.9755, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a deeper downward correction. A potential target for the downside is the 0.9610 level, where the lower boundary of the large 1:1 pattern is located. Currently, the 0.9755 level is acting as resistance, and only a sustained return of the price above this zone could restore the bullish scenario.

AUDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation GBPUSD Since the beginning of April, GBPUSD has been trading within a local uptrend, supported by the 1:1 bullish pattern highlighted in green. The key support level remains at 1.3488. A potential bounce at this point could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. Conversely, a break below this level would open the way for a decline towards 1.3360, where the polarity of the previously broken downward pattern lies.

GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation AUDUSD The AUDUSD pair remains in an uptrend. Recently, the pair reached a new local high, followed by a rapid correction. Should this correction deepen, the key support level is 0.7121, derived from the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern. As long as this level holds, the base case scenario remains a continuation of the upward trend.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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AUD/USD: Consolidation risk after RBA pause – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists note AUD/USD has pulled back after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a third 25bp hike to 4.35% while signalling a pause. The pair is drifting below 0.7150 despite earlier reclaiming its 50‑DMA, with risk sentiment and the RBA’s data‑dependent stance expected to guide direction around key 0.7060 and 0.7225 levels.

Key supports and RBA-driven outlook

“Three hikes and done, receive the front end in Australia? Not so fast. The third rate increase today by the RBA puts the CRT at 4.35% but this is below the new higher projection of 4.7% for Dec-26 (raised from 4.2% in February). In other words, the central bank is holding powder in reserve to tighten at least once more. The rate then stays at 4.7% through 2027 and 1H-28. Core inflation peaks at 3.8% in 2Q and then drifts down to 3.1% by the end of this year, to 2.6% in 2027 and 2.5% in 1H-28. Headline CPI falls back from 4.0% in Dec-26 to 2.4% by mid-2027. “

“Governor Bullock sounded more neutral this time in her comments, prompting the receiving interest in the front end and bull steepening in 2s/10s. The further crystallisation of upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations will determine if rates are hoisted again to 4.6%, probably in August or September. A pause in June looks a done deal. The statement highlighted the risk of second-round effects across goods and services. Governor Bullock reiterated that the Board has no predetermined path and will remain data-dependent, ruling nothing in or out.”

“AUD/USD reclaimed its 50‑DMA in April and subsequently staged a strong rebound. However, the pair has struggled to establish itself beyond the March peak, carving out an interim high near 0.7225; this points to a lack of steady upward momentum.”

“A period of consolidation cannot be ruled out. Defence of the 50‑DMA around 0.7060 is crucial for continuation of the up move. A break above 0.7225 may lead to a larger uptrend.”

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AUD/JPY trims losses near 112.50 as RBA hikes official cash rate to 4.35%

  • AUD/JPY recovers modestly to around 112.65 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • RBA lifted the Official Cash Rate to 4.35% from 4.1% at its May meeting on Tuesday. 
  • Traders remain on edge over the potential for Japanese authorities to step back into the market after last week’s intervention.

The AUD/JPY cross pares losses near 112.65 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges slightly higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. Traders await Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 04:30 GMT for fresh impetus. 

As widely expected, the Australian central bank on Tuesday decided to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.35% from 4.10% after concluding its May monetary policy meeting. According to the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, the central bank noted a significant increase in uncertainty over the domestic economic outlook and inflation.

The fallout from the Iran war will slash half a percentage point off economic growth in 2026 against the pre-conflict forecasts in February, as annual growth halves to 1.3% this year.

On the JPY’s front, markets remain on high alert following suspected interventions by Japanese authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan can take action against speculative foreign-exchange movements.

There was no official confirmation, but there were plenty of unofficial signals – including a “final warning” from a top official: the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened in the foreign exchange market on Friday to strengthen the Japanese yen. The big question now is: How long will the JPY’s strength last?” said Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen. 

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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens below 113.00, while broader uptrend remains intact

  • AUD/JPY weakens to around 112.95 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps bullish vibe above the 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term. 
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.40; the initial support level is seen at 112.00. 

The AUD/JPY cross loses ground near 112.95 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts safe-haven assets. 

US President Donald Trump announced the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, per CNN. Meanwhile, Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi warned that the plan is a violation of the ceasefire.

On the other hand, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a third straight interest rate hike on Tuesday. The primary driver is a significant jump in headline inflation in March, fueled by global energy shocks and Middle East tensions.  

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is also trading above the lower Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.8 has eased back to neutral territory, hinting at a consolidation phase rather than an outright reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 113.40. A sustained break above this pivot would expose the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger band near 115.18 as the next bullish target. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 112.00 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger band at 111.65; a deeper correction towards the 100-day EMA at 109.37 would still be consistent with a broader bullish structure while offering a potentially stronger demand zone.

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AUD/USD Consolidates above 0.7200, highest since June 2022 ahead of RBA

  • AUD/USD is seen consolidating its recent strong gains amid a combination of diverging forces.
  • Hawkish RBA bets continue to underpin the Aussie, while rising US-Iran tensions cap the upside.
  • Bulls also seem hesitant and await the crucial RBA rate decision on Tuesday for a fresh impetus.

The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and holds steady above the 0.7200 mark, near its highest level since June 2022, touched on Friday. Bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting on Tuesday continue to underpin the Aussie. However, rising US-Iran tensions benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for spot prices ahead of the key central bank event.

Against the backdrop of the recent bounce from the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, Friday’s breakout and close above the 0.7200 horizontal barrier were seen as a key trigger for the AUD/USD bulls. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62 suggests firm positive momentum without yet entering overbought territory. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, hinting that upside pressure is intact.

The technical setup backs the case for an extension of the AUD/USD pair’s recent move higher from the late-March swing low. Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to attract buyers and remain limited in the near term. The 100-period EMA around 0.7137 might continue to offer immediate support, which, if broken decisively, would signal fading bullish control and open the way for a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD
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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Remains bullish despite hovering around 0.7200

  • AUD/USD trades near range highs within 0.7100–0.7200 consolidation band.
  • RSI above 50 supports bullish momentum and potential breakout scenario.
  • Break above 0.7250 targets 0.7282 and 0.7300 resistance levels.

AUD/USD holds to minimal gains of 0.10% late in the North American session, yet poised to finish the week up 0.84%. At the time of writing, the pair trades above 0.7200 as the ‘bullish engulfing’ chart pattern caps the Aussie on the downside.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD trades near the top of a 100-pip consolidation range between 0.7100 and 0.7200, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts. Momentum is bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting above its neutral level.

On the upside, the first resistance for AUD/USD is the psychological 0.7250 level. If cleared, the next stop would be the June 3, 2022, high of 0.7282 ahead of the 0.7300 area. The next area of interest would be on April 5, 2022, at 0.7661

Conversely, if AUD/USD ends the day below 0.7200, it could open the door for testing the 20-day SMA at 0.7121. Below this level is 0.7100 ─the bottom of the 100-pip range─, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.7059

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

AUD/USD daily chart
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AUD/USD holds steady near recent highs ahead of expected RBA rate hike

  • AUD/USD trades near 0.7200, holding steady despite volatility linked to geopolitical risks.
  • Investors largely expect a rate hike from the Australian central bank next week.
  • The US Dollar remains broadly under pressure, limiting downside in the pair.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7200 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day and holding near recent highs, as markets adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision scheduled for Tuesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains slightly supported against its major peers, with investors expecting this key event. According to a Reuters poll, a strong majority of economists expect a 25 basis point rate hike, which would bring the policy rate to 4.35%. These expectations are supported by persistent inflationary pressures in Australia, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 4.6% YoY in March, still well above the central bank’s target.

Market participants will also closely watch Governor Michele Bullock’s comments for further guidance on the policy outlook, particularly as energy-related risks linked to tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could continue to fuel inflationary pressures.

At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) is struggling to gain traction despite a geopolitical backdrop that usually supports safe-haven demand. Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of the year, although some officials, including Neel Kashkari, have highlighted the possibility of further hikes in the event of a significant inflationary shock driven by energy prices.

Geopolitical tensions still provide intermittent support to the Greenback, particularly following reports that the US administration is considering military options regarding Iran. Meanwhile, diplomatic developments suggesting that Tehran has submitted a new proposal to the United States (US) on Thursday have temporarily weighed on the US Dollar.

Investors now turn their attention to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) later in the day, a key indicator for assessing economic momentum.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.25%-0.22%-0.02%-0.14%-0.03%0.15%-0.20%
EUR0.25%0.02%0.22%0.08%0.22%0.38%0.05%
GBP0.22%-0.02%0.19%0.08%0.19%0.36%0.05%
JPY0.02%-0.22%-0.19%-0.11%-0.01%0.14%-0.16%
CAD0.14%-0.08%-0.08%0.11%0.10%0.28%-0.03%
AUD0.03%-0.22%-0.19%0.00%-0.10%0.16%-0.12%
NZD-0.15%-0.38%-0.36%-0.14%-0.28%-0.16%-0.31%
CHF0.20%-0.05%-0.05%0.16%0.03%0.12%0.31%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).