AUD - Currency Hedger

Australian Dollar edges lower despite reinforced hawkish RBA bias

April 14, 2026

Australian Dollar inches lower after posting 0.42% gains in the previous day.
The AUD may gain support from a reinforced hawkish RBA stance amid persistent energy-driven inflation pressures.
US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks mildly support risk sentiment, signaling diplomacy and potential US–Iran de-escalation.

AUD/USD retreats after posting modest gains in the previous session, trading around 0.7090 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair could regain traction as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may draw support from a reinforced hawkish bias by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), driven by persistent energy-led inflation pressures.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cautioned that Australia is navigating a difficult macroeconomic environment, where elevated inflation and constrained supply capacity are increasing the risk of a stagflation-like scenario if energy shocks continue.

Hauser noted that the central bank’s “nightmare” scenario would involve inflation rising alongside weakening economic activity, a combination that would make policy decisions significantly more complex.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure as comments from US Vice President JD Vance appear mildly supportive of risk sentiment, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. However, the absence of tangible progress continues to keep the oil-related risk premium elevated.

In an interview with Fox News, Vance adopted a cautiously optimistic tone regarding negotiations with Iran, indicating that meaningful progress has been made despite the absence of a breakthrough. He stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.

Although the talks did not yield a formal agreement, Vance stressed that the outcome should not be viewed as a failure, highlighting that Iranian representatives showed some willingness to move closer to US positions, though not enough to finalize a deal.

AUD/JPY hovers around 112.50 after paring latest losses

April 13, 2026

AUD/JPY may further struggle as the Australian Dollar faces challenges due to increased risk aversion.
US Vice President JD Vance confirmed US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal after 21 hours of negotiations.
Japan’s 10-year bond yield rose to 2.47% as oil surged after US–Iran talks collapsed.

AUD/JPY pares its daily losses but remains in the negative territory, trading around 112.40 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross faced challenges as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened as risk aversion increased after US Vice President JD Vance said Washington and Tehran failed to reach a peace agreement in Islamabad following 21 hours of talks.

US President Donald Trump said Washington would begin blockading all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, while US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed operations targeting maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports from 10 AM ET (14:00 GMT) Monday.

Rising energy costs have also fueled inflation concerns, with Australia’s monthly inflation gauge hitting a record 1.3% in March, signaling renewed price pressures since late 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised rates by 50 basis points to 4.10%, and markets now expect another hike in May.

The downside of the EUR/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles with stagflation concerns amid rising oil prices. Rising energy costs fueled expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.

The BoJ is set to hold its next policy decision on April 28, where officials will evaluate whether elevated global energy and commodity prices justify tightening. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.47% on Monday as oil prices surged following the breakdown of US–Iran peace talks.

The Sakura Report showed board members balancing upside inflation risks against downside growth risks following the April 6 branch managers’ meeting. All nine regions maintained that their economies were either “recovering moderately,” “picking up,” or “picking up moderately.”

Currency Talk – GBP/USD, AUD/NZD, USD/CHF

April 10, 2026

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis relies solely on the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine points where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur.
Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

GBPUSD
The GBPUSD price has broken its downward trend by rising above the 1.3360 level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a larger upward correction or even a trend reversal. Currently, the 1.3360 level—the upper boundary of the negated 1:1 geometry—serves as key support. Conversely, for a return to the downtrend, the price would also need to fall below the 1.3315 level, where the lower boundary of the local 1:1 uptrend pattern is located.

GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

AUDNZD
The AUDNZD pair has been in an uptrend for quite some time. The latest correction was exactly the same size as the previous ones, marked by the green rectangle. We are currently observing a local corrective move. If the correction continues, key support based on the Overbalance methodology is at the 0.6992 level, where the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. As long as the price remains above this level, the uptrend remains in effect.

AUDNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

USDCHF
USDCHF prices have been trending downward for quite some time, but since late January we have seen a dynamic upward correction. Currently, the price has rebounded from a key resistance level at 0.8042, where the upper boundary of the largest 1:1 pattern is located, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, may signal a return to the downtrend. For this scenario to be confirmed, the price should sustainably fall below the 0.7902 level, where the lower boundary of the smaller pattern is located. In that case, a acceleration of the decline toward recent lows would be possible. Conversely, a break above the 0.8042 level would open the way for further gains.

USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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AUD/USD Rally pauses as RSI (14) struggles to extend above 60.00

April 10, 2026

AUD/USD corrects to near 0.7065 after a four-day winning streak.
Investors await the outcome of US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan.
The US headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% YoY in March.

The AUD/USD pair is down 0.23% to near 0.7065 in the late Asian trading session, struggling to extend its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Friday. The Aussie pair comes under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms amid uncertainty surrounding the first round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend regarding the permanent ceasefire.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.09%	0.15%	0.16%	0.08%	0.23%	0.25%	0.02%
EUR	-0.09%		0.05%	0.09%	-0.03%	0.12%	0.16%	-0.08%
GBP	-0.15%	-0.05%		0.04%	-0.06%	0.09%	0.11%	-0.14%
JPY	-0.16%	-0.09%	-0.04%		-0.09%	0.07%	0.04%	-0.18%
CAD	-0.08%	0.03%	0.06%	0.09%		0.13%	0.16%	-0.07%
AUD	-0.23%	-0.12%	-0.09%	-0.07%	-0.13%		0.02%	-0.22%
NZD	-0.25%	-0.16%	-0.11%	-0.04%	-0.16%	-0.02%		-0.24%
CHF	-0.02%	0.08%	0.14%	0.18%	0.07%	0.22%	0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Market participants doubt that US-Iran talks will go on smoothly amid continued military attacks in Lebanon between Iran-backed Houthis and the Israeli army.

Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed back hopes of a ceasefire in Lebanon, stating that Tel Aviv would continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force” as the country’s military launched fresh strikes.

On Thursday, Israeli PM Netanyahu stated, through a tweet on X, that he is open to direct negotiations with Lebanon after repeated requests from the nation.

On the macro front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline inflation is expected to arrive significantly higher at 3.3% from 2.4% in February.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7065 as of writing. However, the pair maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6989. The pair has rebounded from last month’s lows and is stabilizing near recent highs.

However, the price needs a fresh trigger to extend its upside, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggling to break into the 60.00s zone.

On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.6989, which reinforces the short-term bullish structure as long as it holds on closing bases. A daily close below this dynamic floor would signal fading upward momentum and expose a deeper correction towards the April 7 low around 0.6900.

Looking up, the April 9 high around 0.7100 is the immediate resistance; a decisive break above the same would allow the price to extend its rebound towards the March high at 0.7187.

AUD declines due to fading optimism surrounding US-Iran ceasefire

April 9, 2026

AUD/USD weakens as the Australian Dollar struggles amid fading optimism, with the Iran 10-point deal lacking full commitment.
Markets now expect an RBA rate hike in May, with rates projected to reach 4.61% by year-end.
Iran says recent actions violate the ceasefire, calling further talks with the US unreasonable.

AUD/USD snaps a three-day winning streak, trading near 0.7030 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The risk-sensitive pair weakens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) comes under pressure amid fading optimism, with reports suggesting the 10-point framework lacks full commitment from both sides, leaving the deal fragile and incomplete.

However, the Middle East conflict, now in its second month, has lifted energy prices and heightened inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that global central banks may keep policy tighter for longer.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised rates by 50 basis points to 4.10% amid persistently high inflation. Markets now anticipate another hike in May, with rates seen reaching 4.61% by year-end.

According to Reuters, Iranian officials said recent developments violate the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to proceed with talks for a permanent agreement with the United States (US).

The warning from Iran’s lead negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, underscores ongoing regional volatility. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also claimed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had halted after Israel expanded strikes in Lebanon.

Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due Friday. Headline inflation is expected to rise 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.4%, driven by higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict.

War-Related Shifts in The Forex Market – USD Plumets, AUD, NDZ and CHF Rebound

April 8, 2026

The two-week suspension of U.S. military operations against Iran triggered a sharp shake-up in the FX market today, reversing much of the movement seen in recent weeks. Across a broad range of currencies, cyclical currencies are the most actively bought, with the NZD, SEK, and ZAR leading the way, while the USD and CAD are at the very bottom of the strength rankings. Pairs such as NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and GBPUSD are rebounding sharply, benefiting from the simultaneous rise in U.S. index futures and the steep sell-off in oil following the largest one-day drop in crude prices in years. The dollar index is sliding by about 0.9%, which, amid a sharp rebound in risk appetite on the stock markets, is weakening demand for safe-haven assets and pushing defensive positions in the USD—and to some extent in the JPY—to the sidelines.

Today’s reaction follows the pattern seen in recent weeks, in which shifts in the intensity of the conflict with Iran quickly translate into movements among the dollar, the yen, oil, and gold, increasing volatility in major currency pairs. Above is a heatmap of volatility in the FX market. Source: xStation

However, the biggest beneficiary of today’s combination of a hawkish central bank and global de-escalation remains the kiwi: following the RBNZ’s decision, NZD/USD rose temporarily by as much as 2% to around 0.5844, and is currently holding gains of around 1.7% at an exchange rate of approximately 0.5824. Investors interpreted the bank’s statement as a “hawkish pause”—the RBNZ clearly signaled its readiness for rapid rate hikes if inflation spreads beyond the energy sector and begins to affect wages and price expectations. At the same time, the bank emphasized that the supply shock linked to the earlier rise in oil prices is temporary, and that weaker domestic demand and rising spare capacity limit the risk of a second round of inflation. In this environment, the NZD benefits in two ways—as a currency with a relatively high interest rate premium and as a classic representative of the risk-on basket, which is now returning to favor following the suspension of U.S.-Iran hostilities. If the window for peace talks in Islamabad does not close too abruptly, the NZD’s current edge over the USD may hold, though ongoing instability in the region and the risk of a sudden escalation still call for caution when extending positions.

The NZDUSD pair tested an important long-term control point marked by the 200-day EMA today. The retest has so far proved unsuccessful.

Source: xStation

AUD/JPY Gains momentum, bullish bias prevails above 100-day EMA

April 8, 2026

AUD/JPY strengthens to near 111.80 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
The cross maintains the constructive outlook above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
The initial support level is located at 111.00; the first upside barrier emerges at 112.50.

The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 111.80 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid improved risk sentiment. US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he had agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” on the condition that Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated that during the two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz “will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Easing tensions in the Middle East undermines a safe-haven currency such as the JPY and acts as a tailwind for the cross in the near term.

On the other hand, fears that Japanese authorities would step in to support the domestic currency might cap the downside for the JPY. Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said last week that officials may need to take “decisive” steps if speculative moves persist in the currency market.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price extends its advance well above the 100-day exponential moving average around 107.50, confirming a dominant uptrend and resilient dip demand. The latest candles hold in the upper half of the Bollinger Band envelope, while the bands remain relatively wide, signalling sustained upside momentum rather than a volatility blow-off. RSI has rebounded toward the high-50s, recovering from mid-range readings and aligning with renewed buying pressure after the recent consolidation above the 111.00 handle.

Initial support emerges at 111.00, where recent lows converge with the mid-Bollinger zone, and a break below would expose deeper pullback risk toward the 110.00 area. Stronger downside protection aligns near the 109.00 region, close to the Bollinger lower band cluster and prior congestion, and a loss of this floor would weaken the broader bullish structure. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at the March 19 high of 112.61, followed by the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of 113.15.

Trade of The Day – GBP/AUD

April 7, 2026

Facts:
The price bounced off the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 1.9255
GBPAUD sits below the 100-period moving average form H4 interval

Recommendation:
Trade: Short position on GBPAUD at market price
Target: 1.8765, 1.8518
Stop: 1.9475

Opinion: Looking at the GBPAUD chart at the H4 interval, one can see that the price bounced off the key resistance today. The price bounced off the resistance marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 1.9255. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below the aforementioned resistance, the main trend remains downward. In addition the price sits below the 100-period moving average from the H4 interval which also confirms the bearish scenario. We recommend going short GBPAUD at market price with two targets: 1.8765 and 1.8518. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.9475 Source: xStation5