Currency Hedger No Comments

Australian Dollar: Softer CPI backs RBA pause – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur contrasts the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), noting Australia has already hiked three times and that April Consumer Price Index (CPI), including a monthly fall and lower annual rate, supports a pause. While trimmed-mean inflation is a mild warning, its three‑month average near target should give the RBA confidence to hold and monitor developments around Iran.

Inflation data justify holding rates

“Unlike the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised its key interest rate three times in recent months. However, this morning’s inflation data confirms our assessment that a pause is now likely to follow.”

“Prices fell unexpectedly in April, declining by 0.1% month-over-month. This was driven by a drop in transportation costs, partly due to falling gasoline prices compared to the previous month. After rising by 33% in March, prices fell by 7% in April.”

“Overall, prices are of course still significantly higher than before the Iran conflict. But at least this development provides some relief. As a result, the annual rate also fell from 4.6% to 4.2% – though it remains well above the RBA’s target of 2-3%.”

“The central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, trimmed-mean inflation – which excludes outliers at both the high and low ends of the calculation – rose slightly compared to the previous month. This is certainly a small warning sign.”

“However, over the last three months, trimmed-mean inflation averaged just 3.1% on an annualized basis, only slightly above the central bank’s target. This should give the RBA the confidence to let the already implemented interest rate hikes take effect for now and to wait and see how the situation in Iran develops.”

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Retreats below 1.2200 on hawkish RBNZ, weak Australian data

  • AUD/NZD retreats from 1.2286 highs to levels below 1.2200.
  • A hawkish RBNZ and soft Australian CPI figures are hammering the Aussie.
  • The pair approaches the neckline of a Double Top pattern.


The Aussie Dollar (AUD) is dropping sharply against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday. The pair has lost more than 0.8% so far today, hitting session lows at 1.2173, hammered by a combination of a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and softer-than-expected Australian inflation figures.

The RBNZ left interest rates on hold, as widely expected earlier on Wednesday, but a split monetary policy committee hints at upcoming rate hikes. RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, who used her casting vote to hold on Wednesday, affirmed that policymakers are concerned about second-round effects on inflation, and that further “OCR increases are likely at coming meetings.”

In Australia, April’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed softer-than-expected inflationary pressures. These figures provide some leeway for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to wait and see for a clearer assessment of the consequences of the war in Iran, and have prompted investors to pare back hopes of an August rate hike.

Technical Indicator: A potential double top warns of a trend shift

Chart Analysis AUD/NZD


AUD/NZD has lost more than 120 pips on Wednesday and is showing signs consistent with a trend shift. A bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, and a potential double top at the 1.2285 area are clear indicators that bulls are giving up.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to the mid-30s, hinting at persistent downside pressure. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly negative, reinforcing the notion that sellers are taking control.

Immediate support is located at the 1.2125-1.2135 area, where May 7, 12, and 21 lows meet the neckline of the mentioned double top pattern. Further down, the April 9 and 14 lows, around 1.2045, would come into focus. The double top’s measured target is right below the 1.2000 psychological level. On the upside, in the unlikely case of a break above 1.2285, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the April-May rally lies at the 1.2380 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.04%0.03%0.05%0.30%-0.65%-0.11%
EUR0.13%0.09%0.15%0.17%0.39%-0.52%0.01%
GBP0.04%-0.09%0.04%0.08%0.32%-0.60%-0.06%
JPY-0.03%-0.15%-0.04%0.02%0.25%-0.67%-0.12%
CAD-0.05%-0.17%-0.08%-0.02%0.23%-0.67%-0.14%
AUD-0.30%-0.39%-0.32%-0.25%-0.23%-0.90%-0.35%
NZD0.65%0.52%0.60%0.67%0.67%0.90%0.53%
CHF0.11%-0.01%0.06%0.12%0.14%0.35%-0.53%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

Australian Dollar: Crowded longs face event risk – Societe Generale

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that speculative positioning in the Australian Dollar is the largest long since 2013, built despite deteriorating domestic data and lower yields. He argues AUD could rally on a credible cease-fire extension but warns much good news is already priced, suggesting better relative value in AUD/NZD and potential NZD/USD shorts.

Australian Dollar positioning looks stretched

“The currency that is most striking in the CFTC chart, is the AUD.”

“The market built up the biggest long AUD position since 2013, growing it in recent weeks despite a wobble at the start of April.”

“5y yields have fallen by 30bp in recent weeks as the economic outlook has deteriorated and end-2026 rate-pricing has dropped by 20bp this month.”

“If a credible cease-fire extension is agreed, AUD seems bound to rally, but there is a lot of good news hard-wired rather than baked into the current AUD/USD price.”

“AUD/NZD would be more attractive, if it weren’t for the fact that this pair is up 13% in the last year.”

Currency Hedger No Comments

Australian Dollar loses traction as US launches self-defence strikes on southern Iran

  • AUD/USD loses ground to near 0.7165 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
  • US military said it carried out new strikes on southern Iran. 
  • Traders brace for Australia’s April CPI inflation report, which is due on Wednesday. 

The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory around 0.7165 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) as renewed tensions between the US and Iran weigh on risk-sensitive currencies.  

The US Central Command said on Monday that it launched new strikes on southern Iran, targeting Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to place mines, per BBC. The US military added that the strikes were taken in “self-defense” and were designed “to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.”

The attacks came as Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai said some progress has been made in talks with the US, but a deal to end the conflict “is not imminent.” Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace negotiations could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and drag the pair lower in the near term. 

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be released on Wednesday. The headline CPI is expected to show a rise of 4.4% YoY in April, compared to 4.6% in March. On a monthly basis, the CPI is projected to show an increase of 0.6% in April, versus 1.1%. Any signs of hotter inflation in Australia could lift the Aussie against the USD. 

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum, holding bullish bias above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY strengthens to near 113.80 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a constructive bias above the 100-day EMA.  
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 114.72; the initial support level to watch is 113.65. 

The AUD/JPY cross gains ground to around 113.80 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz buoyed risk appetite, supporting the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

The United States (US) and Iran signaled progress in efforts to resolve the conflict, but key details of a framework agreement are still under negotiation, and a US official said it could take a few more days to finalize. However, US President Donald Trump stated that a deal is close, but the US blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would “remain in full force” until an agreement was signed. 

On the other hand, markets slash the chance of more interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after a surprise rise in the jobless rate. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the Aussie. Unemployment Rate in Australia climbed to 4.5% in April, up from 4.3% in March. This figure registered the highest in about four and a half years. 

The odds of a rate hike at the RBA’s next meeting dropped to just 3%, from 13% before the release of the employment report, according to financial market pricing provided by Westpac.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as the spot holds above the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 54, suggesting steady but tempered upside momentum rather than a blow-off phase.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the upper Bollinger band at 114.72, where a clear break would open the door to further gains within the broader uptrend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the day’s open pivot around the Bollinger middle band at 113.65, followed by the lower band near 112.53. Deeper pullbacks would likely lean on the 100-day moving average around 110.80 to preserve the broader bullish structure.

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/USD Price Flirts with 200-SMA on H4, just above mid-0.7100s amid weaker USD

  • AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note as US-Iran deal hopes weigh on the USD.
  • Bets for a rate hike by the Fed in 2026 could limit deeper USD losses and cap gains for the pair.
  • The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a further appreciating move.

The AUD/USD pair opens with a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week and sticks to intraday gains above mid-0.7100s through the Asian session. The latest optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and assists spot prices to move away from the lowest level since April 14, touched last week.

However, the US and Iran remained at odds over key issues, including blockades on the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s nuclear program, keeping a lid on the market optimism. This, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year, should help limit deeper USD losses and cap further gains for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent corrective pullback from the vicinity of the highest level since June 2022, touched earlier this month. Bulls now await a move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart before placing fresh bets.

Meanwhile, a mildly positive Relative Strength Index near 58 and a gently positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest upside momentum is building. However, price action remains finely balanced, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond this key moving average before positioning for any further appreciation.

The subsequent move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at the 50.0% retracement near 0.7175, which is followed by the 61.8% level at 0.7197, with higher hurdles seen at 0.7230 and 0.7270. On the downside, a break below the 38.2% retracement at 0.7152 would expose the 23.6% level at 0.7124, ahead of the stronger structural support around 0.7079.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.31%-0.36%-0.21%-0.13%-0.46%-0.44%-0.31%
EUR0.31%-0.06%0.11%0.17%-0.16%-0.13%-0.02%
GBP0.36%0.06%0.17%0.23%-0.11%-0.06%0.03%
JPY0.21%-0.11%-0.17%0.08%-0.29%-0.26%-0.16%
CAD0.13%-0.17%-0.23%-0.08%-0.35%-0.32%-0.22%
AUD0.46%0.16%0.11%0.29%0.35%0.03%0.14%
NZD0.44%0.13%0.06%0.26%0.32%-0.03%0.10%
CHF0.31%0.02%-0.03%0.16%0.22%-0.14%-0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Weakens to near 113.50, but broader uptrend remains intact

  • AUD/JPY drifts lower to near 113.50 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • Surprise rise in Australia’s Unemployment Rate will give RBA more reason to delay further rate hike at the June meeting. 
  • The constructive outlook of the cross prevails above the 100-day EMA, with neutral-to-mildly bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.65; the initial support level to watch is 112.50. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.50 during the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as markets slash the chance of more interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after a surprise rise in the jobless rate. 

Australia’s Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5% in April from 4.3% in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. This reading registered the highest in about four and a half years. The report will provide the Australian central bank with more reason to hold off on a fourth rate hike at its next meeting in June, which could weigh on the Aussie. 

The probability of a rate hike at the next meeting dropped to just 3%, from 13% before the release of the employment report, according to financial market pricing provided by Westpac.

On the other hand, softer Japanese inflation data could weigh on the JPY and act as a tailwind for the cross. Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.4% YoY in April, compared to 1.5% in March, the Japan Statistics Bureau revealed on Friday. 

Meanwhile, Japan’s core CPI climbed by 1.4% YoY in April, marking the slowest annual pace in four years.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds comfortably above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 110.70, keeping the broader bias constructive despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is now trading just under the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA basis line, suggesting topside momentum has slowed but not broken, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 51 hints at neutral-to-mildly positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around 113.65, with a break higher opening the way toward the May 14 high of 114.66. The next hurdle is seen at the upper Bollinger band near 114.83. On the downside, initial support emerges at the lower Bollinger band around 112.50, ahead of the April 13 low of 111.66. The key trend support is located at the 100-day SMA near 110.70, where buyers would be expected to defend the prevailing uptrend on deeper pullbacks.

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/USD – Picks up above 0.7120 after finding support in the 0.7100 area

  • AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 after falling from 0.7174 highs on Wednesday.
  • An unexpected rise in Australian unemployment adds to the case for an RBA rate pause.
  • The pair is trading in a triangle pattern, with a bearish outcome favoured.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as soft Australian employment data cemented hopes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will take a pause in the coming months after three consecutive rate hikes. The pair trades at 0.7126 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 0.7100, but remains well below Wednesday’s highs, at 0.7174..

Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reaching its highest level since 2021, against expectations of a steady 4.3% rate. The jump in the jobless rate was due to an unexpected decline in net employment, which fell by 18.6K against the 17.5K increase expected.

Aussie’s weakness, however, is being tamed by a mild improvement in market sentiment as US President Donald Trump affirmed that Washington and Tehran would be in the final stages of a peace deal.

Technical Analysis: The pair is forming a small triangle pattern

AUD/USD Chart Analysis


AUD/USD trades at the lower band of the monthly trading range, with price action forming ang a small triangle pattern. Triangles are considered continuation patterns, and, in this case, would anticipate a bearish outcome.

Momentum indicators, in the 4-hour chart, are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains capped below the 50 line, highlighting a mild bearish pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive, hinting that bullish momentum is attempting to rebuild above recent lows.

Initial support is seen at the uptrend line around 0.7108, with additional protection emerging at the 0.7080 area (April 14, May 10 lows). A break below this band would expose an intraday support area at 0.7030.

Rallies, on the contrary, are likely to be tested in the area between the triangle top, near 0.7160, and Wednesday’s high, at the mentioned 0.7174 level. Further up, Monday’s high, at 0.7185, will also challenge bulls ahead of a previous support area, near 0.7215.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.01%-0.00%0.06%0.11%0.38%0.19%-0.02%
EUR0.00%-0.00%0.09%0.10%0.38%0.15%-0.02%
GBP0.00%0.00%0.09%0.11%0.40%0.17%-0.02%
JPY-0.06%-0.09%-0.09%0.02%0.33%0.04%-0.09%
CAD-0.11%-0.10%-0.11%-0.02%0.31%0.07%-0.14%
AUD-0.38%-0.38%-0.40%-0.33%-0.31%-0.23%-0.44%
NZD-0.19%-0.15%-0.17%-0.04%-0.07%0.23%-0.20%
CHF0.02%0.02%0.02%0.09%0.14%0.44%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).