AUD

• AUD/USD holds gains near 0.7180 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• Australia’s Unemployment Rate steadied at 4.3% in March, in line with the consensus. 
• Traders will closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East. 

The AUD/USD pair holds positive ground around 0.7180 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Greenback amid mixed economic data from Australian and Chinese dockets. 

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday showed that Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3% in March. The figure came in line with the market consensus. Additionally, the Australian Employment Change arrived at 17.9K in March. This reading followed 49.7K in February (revised from 48.9K), missing the forecast of 20K.

On the Chinese front, the annual March Retail Sales increased by 1.7% versus 2.3% expected and 2.8% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 5.7% versus 5.5% estimate and February’s reading of 6.3%. Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 1.3% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, compared to a 1.2% growth in Q4 of 2025. The Aussie attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the mixed readings. 

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair. The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations about a longer-term peace deal. However, tensions remain particularly high over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas that’s been effectively shuttered since the start of the war almost seven weeks ago. 

• Australian Dollar appreciates amid reports of renewed US–Iran talks ahead of the two-week ceasefire expiring.
• US Vice President Vance cited “significant progress” in initial Iran talks in Pakistan, with follow-up discussions likely within days.
• RBA’s Hauser warned that the coming months will be challenging amid the energy crisis and high inflation.

AUD/USD gains ground for the third successive day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support from improved market sentiment due to the potential for further United States (US)-Iran talks.

The New York Post reported that US President Donald Trump signaled negotiations could resume this week, while also opposing a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance highlighted “significant progress” in the initial round of Iran talks held in Pakistan, with follow-up discussions potentially set to take place within days.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned on Tuesday during a fireside chat that the months ahead will be challenging for Australia amid the energy crisis driven by Middle East tensions and elevated inflation pressures. Hauser noted that the economy is struggling to absorb the shock due to persistent inflation and supply constraints, increasing the risk of a stagflation-like scenario.

On the data front, softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced easing inflation pressures, reducing the need for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates. Notably, the services component, closely watched by the Fed, stood out, as it excludes direct energy and tariff-related effects.

The US PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month (MoM), well below the 1.2% consensus, while core PPI printed at 0.1% MoM versus expectations of 0.6%. On an annual basis, US PPI increased 4% in March, missing the 4.6% forecast and rising from February’s 3.4%, while Core PPI held steady at 3.8% YoY, unchanged from the prior month.

• Australian Dollar inches lower after posting 0.42% gains in the previous day.
• The AUD may gain support from a reinforced hawkish RBA stance amid persistent energy-driven inflation pressures.
• US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks mildly support risk sentiment, signaling diplomacy and potential US–Iran de-escalation.

AUD/USD retreats after posting modest gains in the previous session, trading around 0.7090 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair could regain traction as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may draw support from a reinforced hawkish bias by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), driven by persistent energy-led inflation pressures.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cautioned that Australia is navigating a difficult macroeconomic environment, where elevated inflation and constrained supply capacity are increasing the risk of a stagflation-like scenario if energy shocks continue.

Hauser noted that the central bank’s “nightmare” scenario would involve inflation rising alongside weakening economic activity, a combination that would make policy decisions significantly more complex.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure as comments from US Vice President JD Vance appear mildly supportive of risk sentiment, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. However, the absence of tangible progress continues to keep the oil-related risk premium elevated.

In an interview with Fox News, Vance adopted a cautiously optimistic tone regarding negotiations with Iran, indicating that meaningful progress has been made despite the absence of a breakthrough. He stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.

Although the talks did not yield a formal agreement, Vance stressed that the outcome should not be viewed as a failure, highlighting that Iranian representatives showed some willingness to move closer to US positions, though not enough to finalize a deal.