Investments - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger May 2, 2026 No Comments

Forecasting The Upcoming Week – NFP, US-Iran peace talks in focus

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a two-week low near the 98.00 price zone on Friday, extending the losses seen the previous day and ending a week in which the world’s most important central banks confirmed a hawkish shift due to rising inflation pressures. Next week, traders’ attention will remain focused on any development regarding potential negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as a streak of US employment data that will culminate with Nonfarm Payrolls.

The economic calendar was light on Friday as many markets around the world were closed due to the Labor Day holiday. Still, in the US, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 52.7, below the expected 53.

In the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran submitted its latest negotiating proposal to Pakistan, acting as the mediator in talks with the United States. It was not immediately clear what was included in the new proposal, but Trump said that he can’t agree to the current demands from Tehran: “Iran wants to make a deal, but I’m not satisfied,” he said.

Earlier in the day, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, discussed the latest initiatives of the Islamic Republic to end the war during phone calls with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iraq, and Azerbaijan, according to a ministry statement.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.20%	-0.12%	0.09%	-0.03%	-0.25%	-0.15%	-0.27%
EUR	0.20%		0.07%	0.28%	0.15%	-0.04%	0.03%	-0.07%
GBP	0.12%	-0.07%		0.21%	0.09%	-0.12%	-0.04%	-0.12%
JPY	-0.09%	-0.28%	-0.21%		-0.12%	-0.34%	-0.28%	-0.36%
CAD	0.03%	-0.15%	-0.09%	0.12%		-0.23%	-0.14%	-0.22%
AUD	0.25%	0.04%	0.12%	0.34%	0.23%		0.08%	0.00%
NZD	0.15%	-0.03%	0.04%	0.28%	0.14%	-0.08%		-0.09%
CHF	0.27%	0.07%	0.12%	0.36%	0.22%	0.00%	0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD rose to an almost two-week high near the 1.1780 level. The pair keeps the rally going for a second straight day after the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged in Thursday’s meeting. US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that tariffs on the European Union’s cars and trucks would rise to 25% from the current 15%, reviving trade war fears.

GBP/USD rose to the 1.3630 price region. The rise comes as investors move away from the US Dollar (USD) amid an improved risk mood after Iran offered to reach out to the US through Pakistan, aiming to finalize the peace deal once and for all.

USD/JPY steadied after dropping from 160.00 to 156.60 following the Japanese government’s intervention on Thursday. Data released on Friday showed the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April ex Fresh Food at 1.9%, down from last month’s 2.3%. The headline measure was released at 1.5%, up slightly from last month’s 1.4%.

AUD/USD ticked up towards the 0.7220 price zone as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision scheduled for next Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was at 3%, below last month’s 3.5%.

Gold trades broadly unchanged at the $4,630 level as investors focus on riskier positions over the week’s end.

WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell near the $98.50 per barrel amid Iran’s Pakistan-driven US peace deal.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Monday, May 4:

Eurogroup Meeting
ECB Cipollone speaks
Fed Williams speaks
ECB Nagel speaks

Tuesday, May 5:

RBA Press Conference
ECB De Guindos speaks
ECB President Lagarde speaks
Fed Bowman speaks
ECB Lane speaks
Fed Barr speaks

Wednesday, May 6:

ECB Lane speaks
ECB Cipollone speaks
Fed Musalem speaks
Fed Goolsbee speaks
Fed Hammack speaks

Thursday, May 7:

ECB De Guindos speaks
ECB Elderson speaks
ECB Lane speaks
ECB Schnabel speaks
Fed Hammack speaks
Fed Williams speaks

Friday, May 8:

ECB President Lagarde speaks
ECB De Guindos speaks
Fed Cook speaks
ECB Cipollone speaks
ECB Schnabel speaks
ECB Nagel speaks
Fed Bowman speaks
Fed Goolsbee speaks
Fed Waller speaks

Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape markets

Monday, May 4:

Australian TD-MI Inflation Gauge April YoY
Australian Building Permits March MoM
Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI April
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May
US Factory Orders March MoM
Australian S&P PMIs April

Tuesday, May 5:

Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
Australian RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Australian RBA Rate Statement
Chinese Consumer Price Index April MoM YoY
US S&P PMIS April
US ISM Services PMIS
US JOLTS Job Openings March
US New Home Sales February and March MoM
New Zealand Employment data

Wednesday, May 6:

Chinese Caixin Services PMI April
Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Services PMI April
Eurozone Producer Price Index March MoM YoY
US ADP Employment Change April
Canadian Ivey PMI April
Japanese Labor Cash Earnings March YoY
Japanese BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Thursday, May 7:

Australian Trade Balance
Germany Factory Orders March MoM YoY
Eurozone Retail Sales March MoM YoY
US Challenger Job Cuts April
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Nonfarm Productivity Q1 Prel
US Unit Labor Costs Q1 Prel

Friday, May 8:

Germany Industrial Production March MoM YoY
Eurozone Trade Balance March
Canadian Employment data
US NFP report

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD nears 1.1700 despite high Eurozone inflation and low growth data

EUR/USD returns to levels near 1.1700 following Eurozone GDP and inflation figures.
The HICP accelerated to 3% in the 12 months to April.
The focus now shifts to the ECB’s monetary policy decision.

The Euro (EUR) is picking up against US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, returning to levels right below 1.1700 at the time of writing, despite Eurozone macroeconomic data, which has confirmed the picture of a sluggish economy and soaring inflationary pressures.

Eurozone’s Preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures have shown that inflation surged to a 3% year on-on-year rate, its highest level since September 2023, from 2.6% in March and above the 2.9% anticiparted by the market consensus. Excluding food and energy prices, the Core HICP eased to a 2.2% y-o-y rate from 2.3% in March.

At the same time, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released by Eurostat revealed that economic growth slowed down to a 0.1% growth in Q1, from 0.2% in the last quarter of 2025, against expectations of a steady 0.2% growth.

These figures pose a significant challenge for the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to disclose its monetary policy decision later on Thursday. The bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, but it will have to fine-tune its monetary policy to fight inflation without crushing an ailing growth.

The Fed moves away from monetary easing

On Wednesday, the Fed left rates on hold at the 3.50%-3.75% band, as expected, yet with the most divided committee since 1992, as three policymakers argued that the “easing bias” phrase is no longer appropriate given the spike in energy prices.

The market has priced out the chance of a Fed rate cut this year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and now prices in a nearly 50% chance of a rate hike in June next year. This has given US Treasury yields a fresh boost, providing additional support for the US Dollar.

Beyond that, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who ends his term on May 15, affirmed that he will remain at the bank as Governor, due to the legal actions taken against him by US President Donald Trump. Powell will replace Stephen Miran, who was appointed by Trump in 2025 and voted for a rate cut on Wednesday, and is likely to counter pressure from the administration on the next Chair, Kevin Warsh, to ease monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: Euro hoversa above a key support zone

EUR/USD remains under pressure with price action supported above a cluster of supports, above 1.1645, which held bears several times in mid-April and whose upper limit is the neckline of a bearish “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) pattern at 1.1675.

Technical indicators on the 4-hour show a neutral-to-bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, highlighting moderate downside pressure, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero.

Bears need to breach the mentioned neckline at 1.1675 and the April 8 intraday low, in the area of 1.1645, to confirm the H&S formation. The pair might find some support at the 1.1630 area, where the 50% Fibonacci support of the March-April rally meets late March and early April highs. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.1583. The H&S’s measured target is coincident with the April 6 low near 1.1500.

On the topside, immediate resistance is at Wednesday’s high at 1.1720 ahead of the mentioned weekly high at 1.1755.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

Bank of England – Preview

H is for hawk The Bank of England will announce its latest policy decision at midday on Thursday. The market is expecting no change in rates from the Bank, and we expect an 8-1 vote split, with one of the noted hawks at the bank voting to increase rates.

The backdrop to this meeting is a deeply uncertain global outlook and the threat of a bigger inflation spike after another surge in the oil price, which has risen to a fresh war-time high on Thursday morning to more than $123 per barrel for Brent, as the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz looks like it will be in place for the long term and as Donald Trump mulls ending the ceasefire with Iran. We expect the BOE to remain as calm and composed as possible considering the backdrop, and to stress the uncertain outlook, however, now that the oil price is rising again and oil supply is likely to remain constrained for the long term, the BOE may find it hard to avoid straying into hawkish territory as it balances growth risks with inflation concerns.

We expect the Bank will stress the need to watch for second round inflation effects, for example wage growth. So far, the survey data does not suggest that firms are likely to raise wages, and the labor market is still soft, even if the unemployment rate fell below 5% in the 3 months to February. The latest DMP survey shows that expectations for wage growth this year are unchanged at 3.5%. The Bank may also address the increase in inflation expectations, which rose by 2.1% in March, according to the latest Citi-YouGov survey. This suggests that consumers are concerned about a 2022-style energy price shock, even if the Bank has been keen to stress that the economic backdrop is different this time.

Assessing the chance of a hawkish shock at the BOE

A hawkish shock would be a larger number of MPC members voting for a rate hike, especially since signals coming from the March data have been resilient so far. If we get a 6-3 split, then this could open the door to a June rate hike. That might sound hasty, however, an early hike could nip in the bud any threat of second round inflation effects, especially if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for the long term and the oil price stays in triple figures.

What will the BOE do next

Although we do not expect any forward guidance from the BOE at today’s meeting, the market is convinced that the next move from the BOE is a rate hike. There is roughly an 84% chance of two rate hikes from the BOE this year, and the market expects rates to rise to 4.25% to combat the threat of rising inflation caused by the energy price spike. The market is expecting the BOE to signal that rates will remain higher for longer, and for now, UK inflation is expected to peak at 4% this year.

Fed’s hawkish tilt

Today’s BOE meeting follows Wednesday night’s Fed meeting. The Fed did not change policy, but it is worth noting that its policy decision was the most divided since 1992. On the back of the Fed meeting, traders now see a rate hike as more likely than a rate cut for this year, following the Fed’s hawkish hold on Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair. There is now an 11% chance of a hike from the Fed this year, up from 5% prior to the meeting. The Fed did not change the language used in its statement at this meeting, which suggests that cuts could still be on the cards for US interest rates. However, Powell suggested that this language could be adapted in future if elevated oil prices persist and three Fed governors opposed the current language used in the statement.

The market reacted to the hawkish tone at the Fed. The Dow Jones slumped 250 points, the dollar ticked higher and US stock index futures are also pointing to losses for the S&P 500 on Thursday. We think that the market reaction to the BOE meeting is likely to be mostly felt in the bond market. UK 2-year yields rose by 8 bps on Wednesday, and yields are higher by 26bps in the past month. The 2-year yield is now trading at 4.55%, so a lot of BOE hawkishness is already priced into UK bonds. We think that the oil price is more important for the direction of UK yields and sentiment towards UK assets more generally. UK stocks have slipped behind their US counterparts in recent weeks, and until there is a rotation out of US tech stocks and into defense names like BAE Systems and Rolls Royce, we could see the UK index may continue to struggle.

Chart 1: FTSE 100 and the S&P 500

Source: XTB

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

Chart of the Day: Yen breaks beyond 160 as the market tests the limits of the “red line”

USDJPY has decisively broken through the psychological 160 level, reaching new multi-month highs and entering territory that was until recently treated as an informal red line for Japanese authorities. Importantly, the breakout has not been met with any strong verbal pushback from the Ministry of Finance, which the market interprets as a growing tolerance for further yen weakness, at least in the short term. This move is not happening in isolation. It reflects the classic combination of two dominant macro forces: a persistently wide interest rate differential and mounting pressures within Japan’s real economy, which are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Source xStation5

What is driving USDJPY? Fed and BOJ stable rates, diverging narratives

Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged, which in itself was not a surprise for markets. The key focus, however, was on communication nuances that further widened the divergence between the two economies. The Fed remains relatively hawkish, emphasizing the resilience of the US economy and a lack of urgency to pivot toward rate cuts. As a result, the dollar continues to benefit from higher yields and the sustained attractiveness of carry trade strategies. On the other side, the BOJ remains cautious, trying to balance the end of ultra-loose monetary policy with the risks of tightening too quickly. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the issue is no longer only imported inflation driven by commodities, but also yen weakness itself, which is now amplifying domestic price pressures.

Japan trapped in a cost and commodities squeeze

Japan’s economic fundamentals are sending increasingly mixed signals. Retail sales suggest some resilience in consumer demand, while industrial production disappointed in March, partly due to supply chain disruptions and rising cost pressures linked to global commodity tensions. Particularly important is the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to elevate risks for global oil and gas flows. For Japan, a heavily import-dependent energy economy, this translates into higher production costs and a deteriorating trade balance. In this context, reports of a possible return of energy subsidies during the summer highlight the government’s attempt to cushion cost pressures, although such measures appear more like short-term stabilization tools rather than a structural response to persistent yen weakness.

160 as a psychological level and a test of market patience

The break above 160 is not purely a technical move. It represents a direct test of Japan’s tolerance threshold for currency weakness. Historically, these levels have been associated with heightened sensitivity from authorities, yet the lack of immediate reaction is encouraging the market to probe further. At this stage, the balance of forces remains tilted toward fundamentals. A persistently wide US–Japan rate differential continues to support capital flows into the dollar, while weak Japanese industrial data and commodity-driven pressures leave the BOJ with little room to tighten policy aggressively in the near term.

Outlook

The current USDJPY move increasingly resembles a classic carry trade driven environment, where fundamentals and momentum reinforce each other. Unless there is a meaningful shift in BOJ policy or a more forceful intervention from the Ministry of Finance, the path of least resistance remains higher. The key question is no longer whether 160 would be broken, but how long the market will continue testing the absence of intervention and where the true line in the sand ultimately lies.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, AUD/USD

Key takeaways

What is the technical outlook for EURGBP, EURAUD, and AUDUSD?

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURGBP From March 20 through the end of the month, EURGBP traded in an uptrend, but the subsequent correction turned into a stronger downtrend. After the 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 0.8693 level, the declines accelerated. Currently, the 0.8693–0.8688 zone represents key resistance. Only a return of the price above this zone could shift the balance of power on the chart. For now, the base scenario remains a decline toward the lows at 0.8617.

EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURAUD From March 11 through the end of the month, the EURAUD pair was in an uptrend; however, the largest corrective pattern was subsequently negated at the 1.6680 level, which was then tested from the opposite side. Since then, we have observed the development of a downtrend. The largest current corrective pattern (marked in red) defines a key resistance level at 1.6470. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains below this level, the downtrend remains in effect.

EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, the AUDUSD pair has been in an uptrend. Recently, the exchange rate has twice tested support at the 0.7015 level, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern. As long as this level holds, the uptrend remains intact. It is worth noting, however, that another test of this zone could weaken it, increasing the risk of it being broken and thus triggering a larger downward correction.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD – Hovers around 50-day EMA near 1.1700

EUR/USD may hover near its eight-month low around 1.1411.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 48 signals weakening bullish momentum and a consolidative trend.
Immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near 1.1678.

EUR/USD extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 1.1660 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal, as the pair has slipped below the ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair holds just under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the nine-day EMA, which together suggest a capped near-term tone despite the recent recovery from lower levels.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 hints at fading bullish momentum and a consolidative bias, reinforcing the view that upside attempts may struggle while price remains below these key dynamic barriers.

On the downside, the EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

The immediate resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 1.1678, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.1700. A return to the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/USD pair to test the two-month high of 1.1849, reached on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1940. A sustained break above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.09%	0.01%	-0.03%	-0.05%	-0.14%	-0.07%	-0.00%
EUR	-0.09%		-0.05%	-0.13%	-0.14%	-0.21%	-0.14%	-0.07%
GBP	-0.01%	0.05%		-0.04%	-0.07%	-0.15%	-0.05%	-0.02%
JPY	0.03%	0.13%	0.04%		-0.03%	-0.10%	-0.09%	-0.00%
CAD	0.05%	0.14%	0.07%	0.03%		-0.10%	-0.04%	0.05%
AUD	0.14%	0.21%	0.15%	0.10%	0.10%		0.07%	0.15%
NZD	0.07%	0.14%	0.05%	0.09%	0.04%	-0.07%		0.07%
CHF	0.00%	0.07%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.05%	-0.15%	-0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD drops as strong US data and Iran impasse lift Dollar bids

Strong Durable Goods Orders reinforced confidence in the US economy.
Higher yields and firm oil prices supported the Greenback’s rebound.
Traders now await Fed and ECB decisions for fresh direction.

EUR/USD drops by some 0.17% during the North American session as a possible resolution of the US-Iran conflict seems far from ending, while Durable Goods Orders data in the US suggest that the economy remains solid. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1684 after reaching a daily high of 1.1720.

Euro weakens as yields jump before Fed and ECB rate decisions now

High energy prices are underpinning the US Dollar, which, of late, has been correlated with WTI, posting back-to-back bullish days and rising 0.27% in the day, according to the US Dollar Index. The DXY, which measures the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 98.66.

US Treasury yields are soaring, with the 10-year Treasury note up 5 basis points to 4.398%, a sign that investors are less confident the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs in the near term.

The US President Donald Trump urged Iran to sign a deal as he prepared the US Navy for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, as negotiations have stalled.

Aside from this, US Core Durable Goods Orders in March rose sharply 3.3% from February’s 1.6% print, crushing estimates for a minimal 0.6% increase, a sign that business spending is picking up, driven by companies spending on AI to improve profit margins. Headline goods orders improved from a -1.2% YoY contraction, to 0.8% exceeding forecasts of 0.5%.

Across the pond, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany rose from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY, missing estimates of 3%. Monthly, the German HICP decreased form 1.2% to 0.5%, below forecasts for a 0.8% jump.

Fed and ECB meetings up next

Now, traders’ eyes would be on monetary policy meetings in both sides of the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve is projected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but the attention would be on Powell’s decision to stay at the Fed until his term as Governor ends, or whether he would leave his place open, which would increase Trump’s allies on the committee.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is projected to keep rates unchanged, but for the rest of the year, money markets see three basis points of rate hikes towards the end of the year, as revealed by Prime Terminal’s implied forward rates curve.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1690, holding just above the triple simple moving average (SMA) clustered around 1.1649, which now acts as immediate support. The pair, however, remains capped by the broader trend structure, with former rising support now sitting above spot near recent highs around 1.1760 and converging with the dominant downward resistance line closer to 1.1800, suggesting rallies are still vulnerable while price trades beneath this confluence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 50.4 hovers around neutral, hinting at a loss of directional conviction after the recent recovery from mid-1.15s.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen near the former rising-support line around 1.1760, ahead of the broader downward resistance trend zone near 1.1800, where sellers are likely to re-emerge unless the pair can sustain a clear break higher. On the downside, the triple SMA support at roughly 1.1650 is the first level to watch; a daily close below this floor would expose a deeper pullback toward the mid-1.15 area, while holding above it would keep the pair in a consolidative stance within the broader corrective structure.

Euro Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.05%	0.16%	0.38%	0.03%	-0.08%	0.43%	0.45%
EUR	-0.05%		0.13%	0.26%	0.00%	-0.11%	0.41%	0.42%
GBP	-0.16%	-0.13%		0.17%	-0.12%	-0.24%	0.28%	0.29%
JPY	-0.38%	-0.26%	-0.17%		-0.30%	-0.44%	0.16%	0.18%
CAD	-0.03%	-0.00%	0.12%	0.30%		-0.07%	0.46%	0.42%
AUD	0.08%	0.11%	0.24%	0.44%	0.07%		0.52%	0.53%
NZD	-0.43%	-0.41%	-0.28%	-0.16%	-0.46%	-0.52%		0.02%
CHF	-0.45%	-0.42%	-0.29%	-0.18%	-0.42%	-0.53%	-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD – Likely find direction after Fed’s policy announcement

EUR/USD trades calmly near 1.1700 ahead of the Fed-ECB monetary policy announcement.
Both the Fed and the ECB will likely maintain the status quo.
The German HICP is estimated to have grown at a stronger pace of 3% YoY in April.

The EUR/USD pair consolidates around 1.1700, inside Tuesday’s trading range, during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair has remained broadly sideways, with investors awaiting monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Both the Fed and the ECB are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their current levels, and warn of upside inflation risks amid elevated energy prices due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors will pay close attention to commentaries from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde to get cues about whether their respective central banks are discussing the need to tighten monetary conditions in the near term.

Ahead of the Fed-ECB policy announcement, investors will focus on the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April, which will be published at 12:00 GMT. The data is expected to show that the German inflation accelerated to 3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.7% in March.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades flat at around 1.1700 as of writing. The pair reflects a sideways trend as it remains sticky to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1698, but stays above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1666.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 zone after failing to sustain above 60.00 for longer, which indicates loss of upside momentum, but the upside bias remains intact.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% retracement around 1.1825, with further hurdles at 1.1938 and the cycle high near 1.2082. Looking down, the 38.2% retracement at 1.1666 is the initial support; a break below that area would expose deeper supports at the 23.6% level near 1.1567 and the structural floor around 1.1408.