4 - 2026 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD advances as ECB holds rates, mixed US data weigh on Dollar

EUR/USD advances despite a cautious ECB stance and unchanged rates.
Energy-driven inflation risks complicate the Eurozone outlook.
The US Dollar softens amid mixed US data and steady Fed expectations.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1690 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.11% on the day, after hitting a three-week low at 1.1655 earlier in the day.

The pair benefits from a weaker US Dollar (USD), as mixed economic indicators are weighing on the Greenback, notably US annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth coming in at 2% in the first quarter, below expectations of 2.3%, although significantly higher than the previous reading of 0.5%.

At the same time, inflation measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index reached 3.5% YoY in March, confirming persistent price pressures, while Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K from a revised 215K in the previous week, pointing to continued resilience in the labor market. This mixed backdrop is maintaining uncertainty around the timing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy moves.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the current policy stance remains appropriate, while highlighting that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding to global uncertainty.

On the European side, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4%, and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank noted that incoming data have been broadly in line with its projections, while warning that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified.

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, noting that policymakers extensively debated a potential rate hike before unanimously deciding to hold rates steady. She also highlighted that rising energy prices could weigh on investment from both firms and households, amid elevated uncertainty and weakening confidence.

Although long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored around the 2% target, short-term expectations have risen significantly, particularly due to geopolitical tensions. This context reinforces the ECB’s cautious stance, as it prefers to wait for greater clarity before adjusting its monetary policy.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.07%	-0.25%	-2.26%	-0.12%	-0.55%	-0.67%	-0.94%
EUR	0.07%		-0.14%	-2.18%	-0.05%	-0.45%	-0.57%	-0.84%
GBP	0.25%	0.14%		-2.03%	0.10%	-0.30%	-0.42%	-0.70%
JPY	2.26%	2.18%	2.03%		2.18%	1.77%	1.59%	1.33%
CAD	0.12%	0.05%	-0.10%	-2.18%		-0.43%	-0.58%	-0.82%
AUD	0.55%	0.45%	0.30%	-1.77%	0.43%		-0.12%	-0.38%
NZD	0.67%	0.57%	0.42%	-1.59%	0.58%	0.12%		-0.27%
CHF	0.94%	0.84%	0.70%	-1.33%	0.82%	0.38%	0.27%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY retreats as ECB holds rates, Japan steps up intervention warnings

EUR/JPY gives back recent gains and comes under pressure around 183.60.
ECB keeps rates unchanged and highlights rising uncertainty on inflation and growth.
Japan strengthens its intervention rhetoric, supporting the Japanese Yen.

EUR/JPY declines and trades around 183.60 at the time of writing, after hitting two-week highs above 187.50, amid mixed pressures from European monetary policy and rising intervention risks in Japan.

The European Central Bank (ECB) leaves its key interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, as expected, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4% and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank notes that incoming data has been broadly in line with its expectations, but warns that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified, particularly due to rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The ECB emphasizes a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and reiterates that it is not pre-committing to any specific rate path. It also highlights that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although short-term expectations have increased significantly.

On the Japanese side, pressure builds on the Japanese Yen (JPY) following firm comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who signals that the time for decisive action in the foreign exchange market is approaching. These remarks come as USD/JPY moved above the key 160.00 level, reviving speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.

At the same time, rising Oil prices, driven by tensions in the Middle East, weigh on Japan’s economic outlook as a major energy importer, limiting the JPY’s upside despite intervention warnings.

In the Eurozone, macroeconomic data sends mixed signals. Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, beating expectations, but the Unemployment Rate rose to 6.4%, pointing to ongoing labor market fragility. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone accelerated, with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increasing by 3% YoY in April, above forecasts.

Market focus now shifts to the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde for further guidance on the future path of monetary policy.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.13%	-0.25%	-2.21%	-0.09%	-0.48%	-0.61%	-0.89%
EUR	0.13%		-0.09%	-2.04%	0.03%	-0.33%	-0.48%	-0.73%
GBP	0.25%	0.09%		-1.93%	0.13%	-0.23%	-0.37%	-0.64%
JPY	2.21%	2.04%	1.93%		2.13%	1.75%	1.55%	1.30%
CAD	0.09%	-0.03%	-0.13%	-2.13%		-0.39%	-0.56%	-0.80%
AUD	0.48%	0.33%	0.23%	-1.75%	0.39%		-0.14%	-0.39%
NZD	0.61%	0.48%	0.37%	-1.55%	0.56%	0.14%		-0.25%
CHF	0.89%	0.73%	0.64%	-1.30%	0.80%	0.39%	0.25%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

(This story was corrected at 13:05 GMT to say that EUR/JPY was trading around 183.60, not 186.60)

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

BoE: June hike seen as one and done – ING

ING’s James Smith notes that the Bank of England (BoE) kept rates at 3.75% in April but is moving closer to tightening as the Middle East crisis persists. ING now expects a single June rate hike, with UK inflation seen peaking slightly above 4% this year. ING remains sceptical about a persistent inflation surge.

ING shifts to a June hike call

“One month ago, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told us markets were getting ahead of themselves on rate hike pricing. That feels like the underlying message from the April decision, which keeps interest rates at 3.75%. But it’s also clear the Bank is inching closer to a rate hike in June.”

“Governor Bailey characterised the decision not to cut, which is what the Bank was likely to have done pre-war, as in effect a decision to tighten policy.”

“That’s why, after today’s decision, we’re now edging towards a hike in June. It’s certainly not guaranteed, but that’s now narrowly our base case, having previously felt rates would stay on hold through this year.”

“Whether that’s followed by one or even two extra hikes, as markets are currently pricing, we’re less convinced right now. It’s clear the majority of the committee are still sceptical about this turning into a persistent bout of inflation, akin to what we saw in 2022. We strongly agree.”

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

Lagarde speaks on policy outlook after leaving key rates unchanged

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB’s decision to leave key rates unchanged at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

ECB press conference key quotes

“Economy was showing momentum before current turbulence.”

“Domestic demand remains main driver of growth.”

“Outlook highly uncertain.”

“Incoming info suggests that conflict is weighing on activity.”

“Business less confident about future.”

“Supply chains coming under pressure.”

“High energy to weigh on incomes.”

“High energy costs to make firms, households reluctant to invest.”

“Labour demand has cooled further.”

“Households in solid financial position.”

“Favourable starting point provides some cushioning.”

“Fiscal responses should be temporary, targeted, tailored.”

“Indicators of underlying inflation have changed little in recent months.”

“Wage tracker indicates easing labour costs.”

“Surveys indicate rise in other costs.”

“Most measures of longer term inflation expectations stand around 2%.”

“Increase in energy prices will keep inflation well above 2% in near term.”

“Will closely monitor size and impact of energy price surge.”

“Risks to growth are tilted to the downside.”

“Worsening of global market sentiment could further dampen demand.”

“Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside.”

“Not going to say whether we’re closer to any particular scenario.”

“We are certainly moving away from baseline.”

“To where exactly? I’m not sure is the most relevant assessment.”

“Most critical is what impact energy prices will have.”

“Made an informed decision of yet insufficient info.”

“Debated at length various options.”

“Decision was unanimous.”

“Debated at length a hike.”

“Some governors may argue both sides of proposals.”

“Hard data is broadly in line with projections.”

“There is such uncertainty, we need to revisit all issues at next meeting.”

“Given position we’re at, six weeks will be the right time to assess developments.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

BoE’s Bailey speaks on interest rate outlook, takes media questions

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is addressing a press conference and responding to media questions, explaining the reasons behind the central bank’s decision to hold the benchmark policy rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote split following the April monetary policy meeting.

Key takeaways from Bailey’s Press Conference

Monetary policy cannot prevent higher global energy prices from affecting uk economy and inflation.

Where we go from here will depend on size and duration of shock to energy prices.

We now project inflation will rise to a little over 3.5% by end of year.

Initial indirect effects of inflation are likely to be largest for food prices.

The longer the conflict in Middle East lasts, the worse the impact will become.

Size of second round effects is uncertain and will take time to build.

Monetary policy faces a difficult judgement call as cannot wait for conclusive evidence on 2nd round effects.

Under scenarios A and B, necessary interest rate response is largely achieved by not cutting rates as was expected in Feb and without further rate increase.

Prolonged spike in energy prices could lead to higher Bank Rate.

There is a good deal of space available to accommodate inflation pressures by not cutting rates as had been previously expected.

Sheer volatility of energy prices makes it impossible to put probabilities on different scenarios.

It would be a mistake to wait for second round effects before acting, that would be too late.

It will take time before we get a good read on pay as most annual settlements have already been agreed.

I think energy price profile of scenario B is more plausible than scenario A.

We do not hear that rapid return to pre-conflict energy supply conditions is likely

It is an active hold today, not a passive one.

Developing story, please refresh the page for updates.

This section below was published at 11:00 GMT to cover the Bank of England’s policy announcements and the initial market reaction.

The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it left the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, as widely expected, following the conclusion of the April monetary policy meeting.

The vote showed the expected split on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with one member favoring a 25-basis point (bps) rate hike.

Takeaways from BoE Monetary Policy Summary

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill voted to increase rates by 0.25 percentage points

Bailey says “reasonable” to hold rates at 3.75% given uk economic situation and uncertainty in Middle East.

CPI likely to be higher this year as effect of higher energy prices passes through.

Bailey says our job is to make sure that inflation gets back to 2% after initial impact of war on energy prices has passed.

BoE says there is a risk of material second-round effects from inflation on wage- and price-setting, policy would need to lean against this.

BoE says weaker economy and labour market and tighter financial conditions will help reduce inflation over time.

BoE Monetary Policy Report highlights

BoE has not updated central economic forecasts, gives new forecasts based on three scenarios for energy prices and inflation persistence.

BoE forecasts 2026 CPI averaging 3.3%-4.5% under different scenarios (Feb central projection: 2.2%).

BoE forecasts 2027 CPI averaging 2.6%-4.8% under different scenarios (Feb central projection: 1.9%).

BoE forecasts 2028 CPI averaging 1.5%-2.9% under different scenarios (Feb central projection: 2.0%).

BoE forecasts for 2027 GDP growth 0.8%-1.0% under different scenarios (Feb central projection 1.5%).

BoE forecasts for 2026 GDP growth 0.7%-0.8% under different scenarios (Feb central projection 0.9%).

BoE says most inflationary scenario “was likely to warrant a forceful tightening of monetary policy”.

BoE projections show inflation peaking at 6.2% in Q1 2027 under most inflationary scenario if rates only rise as markets expect.

Market reaction to BoE policy announcements

The Pound Sterling shows little reaction to the BoE policy announcements, with GBP/USD up 0.34% on the day at 1.3515, as of writing.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.24%	-0.31%	-1.90%	-0.22%	-0.52%	-0.59%	-0.69%
EUR	0.24%		-0.03%	-1.68%	0.02%	-0.27%	-0.32%	-0.42%
GBP	0.31%	0.03%		-1.66%	0.06%	-0.22%	-0.27%	-0.39%
JPY	1.90%	1.68%	1.66%		1.70%	1.41%	1.29%	1.20%
CAD	0.22%	-0.02%	-0.06%	-1.70%		-0.31%	-0.39%	-0.48%
AUD	0.52%	0.27%	0.22%	-1.41%	0.31%		-0.05%	-0.15%
NZD	0.59%	0.32%	0.27%	-1.29%	0.39%	0.05%		-0.10%
CHF	0.69%	0.42%	0.39%	-1.20%	0.48%	0.15%	0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

USD/CAD edges lower as Oil retreat, Fed-BoC policy split keep volatility elevated

USD/CAD trades slightly lower at around 1.3655 after a flat day previously.
Declining Oil prices weigh on the Canadian Dollar, although structural support remains.
Diverging policy outlooks between the Fed and the BoC keep volatility elevated.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3655 on Thursday, down 0.21% on the day, after stabilizing in the previous day. The pair faces short-term pressure due to a modest pullback in the US Dollar, although downside momentum may remain limited in an uncertain macro environment.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shows resilience despite the recent decline in Oil prices, a key driver for the commodity-linked currency. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is falling after several days of gains, trading around $103 per barrel, which typically weighs on the Loonie given Canada’s position as the largest Crude exporter to the United States (US). However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions continue to support the broader outlook for Canada’s energy sector.

On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% and adopted a wait-and-see stance while keeping options open. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasizes a data-dependent approach, noting that no preset path is in place. Inflation is projected slightly higher for 2026 and wage pressures remain persistent, limiting the scope for near-term easing. The central bank also signaled that trade shocks from the United States could justify rate cuts, while sustained energy-driven inflation could require tightening.

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) corrects lower after two days of gains. The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates within the 3.5%-3.75% range, with a divided vote reflecting rare internal disagreement. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation remains elevated, partly due to higher energy prices, reinforcing a broadly hawkish stance.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.26%	-0.32%	-2.00%	-0.21%	-0.52%	-0.54%	-0.67%
EUR	0.26%		-0.03%	-1.69%	0.05%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.38%
GBP	0.32%	0.03%		-1.62%	0.09%	-0.20%	-0.21%	-0.36%
JPY	2.00%	1.69%	1.62%		1.70%	1.40%	1.33%	1.22%
CAD	0.21%	-0.05%	-0.09%	-1.70%		-0.32%	-0.35%	-0.46%
AUD	0.52%	0.25%	0.20%	-1.40%	0.32%		-0.01%	-0.13%
NZD	0.54%	0.25%	0.21%	-1.33%	0.35%	0.00%		-0.13%
CHF	0.67%	0.38%	0.36%	-1.22%	0.46%	0.13%	0.13%

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

GBP faces pressure after BoE leaves interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected

The Pound Sterling comes under pressure against its peers after the BoE’s interest rate decision.
The BoE maintains the status quo, leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.
On Wednesday, the Fed held interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure, prima facie, after the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement. As expected, the BoE has left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with an 8-1 majority. This is the third straight meeting that the BoE has maintained the status quo.

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill was the one Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member who dissented from the hold decision and voted for an interest rate hike. Pill was expected to advocate an interest rate hike, as he stated in an event in the middle of the month, that interest rates should be raised for inflation to return to the central bank’s 2% target.

The BoE needs to make decisions that give “the most insurance” against a repeat of the 2022 inflation shock, Pill argued, warning against a “wait and see approach,” Bloomberg reported.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) faces intense selling despite growing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz outlook and a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) hold.

United States (US) President Donald Trump stated on late Wednesday that Washington’s naval blockade of Iranian sea ports will continue until Iran gives up its nuclear ambitions.

On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, however, three members of the rate-setting committee dissented the decision and advocated for a move away from the monetary easing bias.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. On an annualized basis, the US GDP growth is expected to have remained higher at 2.3% against the previous reading of 0.5%.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY drops to near 186.00 amid fresh intervention warnings from Japan

EUR/JPY retreats to 186.20 from two-week highs above 187.50, turns negative on the day.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said that “the time for decisive action” is near.
German GDP beat expectations in Q1, but unemployment rose unexpectedly.

The Euro (EUR) has pulled back form two week highs above 187.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, retreating to 186.20 at the time of writing, as Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama launched a clear intervention warning.

Katayama affirmed on Thursday that the “timing for decisive action is near” and that Japanese authorities are getting closer to stepping into the FX markets. These comments arrive after the USD/JPY crossed the key 160.00 level, considered a line in the sand for Tokyo.

The JPY was showing the weakest performance among the G8 currencies on Thursday. The latest jump in Oil prices and the prospect of an extended blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have reactivated concerns about the consequences for the Crude-importing Japanese economy, offsetting the hawkish tone of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent monetary policy meeting.

In Europe, German jobless figures in March disappointed. The unemployment rate rose to 6.4%, against the market consensus of a steady 6.3% rate from February. Data from Destatis revealed that the number of jobless workers increased by 20K, exceeding the 4K forecasted by market analysts and keeping the total unemployment figure beyond 3 million.

These figures offset the 0.3% increase of the first quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which beat expectations of a slight slowdown to 0.2%, following another 0.3% quarterly gain in the last three months of last year.

In the Eurozone, inflation figures have confirmed the higher inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. The Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) has risen 1% in April, following a 1.3% increase in March. Moreover, the HICP rose 3% YoY, from 2.6% in March, and exceeded market expectations of 2.9%.

The focus now shifts to the European Central Bank (ECB), which will disclose the outcome of its last monetary policy meeting. The bank is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold, but hint at rate hikes in the near term, pressured by the rising prices.