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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Treading water around 1.3400 with central banks in focus

  • GBP/USD keeps hovering around 1.3400, lacking a clear bias.
  • Investors await details from the US-Iran deal and interest rate decisions by the Fed and the BoE.
  • Technically, the pair is in a consolidating phase, trapped between 1.3300 and 1.3500.

The British Pound (GBP) is trading practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The Doji candles at the 1.3400 area highlight an indecisive market, as traders await details on the US-Iran peace deal and monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) to make investment decisions.

US Vice President JD Vance affirmed earlier on the day that no tolls will be applied to vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz and that nuclear inspectors will return to Iran. Investors, however, remain reluctant to take excessive risks, awaiting confirmation from Tehran.+

Markets are also attentive to the interest rate decisions from the Fed and the BoE to assess how major central banks will react to the peace deal. The Fed is expected to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, with the new Chairman Kevin Warsh, likely to adopt a more dovish stance than his predecessor Jerome Powell.

On Thursday, the BoE is highly likely to follow suit on rates and to hint at a steady monetary policy for the coming months. In this case, the vote split and the minutes of the meeting are expected to provide further details about the bank’s forward guidance.

Technical Analysis: Key levels are 1.3300 and 1.3500

GBP/USD Chart Analysis

GBP/USD trades at 1.3410, halfway through the last four weeks’ range, between 1.3300 and 1.3500. Indicators in the 4-hour chart highlight a lack of clear momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flat at the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) fractionally below zero, together hinting at a consolidative bias.

The pair was rejected at the 1.3460 area on Monday, although the key resistance area lies between 1.3485 and 1.3505, which has held bulls since mid-May. Further up, the next target is the May 14 high, near 1.3550.

On the downside, Friday’s low, at 1.3380, might provide some support ahead of the bottom of the range, at the 1.3300 area (May 18, June 8 lows). Below here, the next bearish target is the late March to early April lows around 1.3170.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.00%-0.05%0.09%0.18%0.07%0.03%
EUR0.03%0.03%0.02%0.13%0.20%0.10%0.07%
GBP0.00%-0.03%0.00%0.11%0.16%0.08%0.04%
JPY0.05%-0.02%0.00%0.11%0.19%0.10%0.08%
CAD-0.09%-0.13%-0.11%-0.11%0.08%-0.03%-0.06%
AUD-0.18%-0.20%-0.16%-0.19%-0.08%-0.09%-0.12%
NZD-0.07%-0.10%-0.08%-0.10%0.03%0.09%-0.03%
CHF-0.03%-0.07%-0.04%-0.08%0.06%0.12%0.03%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Trade of The Day – EUR/GBP

Facts:

  • The price is near the lower boundary of a consolidation range between 0.886 and 0.861.
  • Upward corrections within the consolidation are breaking to increasingly lower levels, while at the same time testing resistance around 0.863.
  • The EMA100 has crossed the EMA200 from above.

Recommendation:

Short position (Sell) on EURGBP at the market price.

  • Target price (Take Profit; TP): 0.8400
  • Stop Loss (SL): 0.8817

EURGBP (D1)

Source: xStation5

OPINION :

The EURGBP rate is once again testing the lower boundary of the consolidation, which can also be treated as a developing 1:1 pattern, potentially ending with a downside breakout. The repeated defense of the ~0.86 level indicates the strength of this zone; however, increasingly weaker upward corrections within the consolidation reveal buyer weakness and point to the likely direction of further price movement.

Methodology and assumptions:

  • The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels.
  • The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels.
  • The protective stop-loss order was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and with reference to a Fibonacci level.
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GBP/USD Price Forecast: US-Iran reaches deal supports advance beyond 20-day EMA

  • GBP/USD jumps to near 1.3460 as the market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets.
  • The finalization of an MoU between the US and Iran has improved the market mood.
  • The Fed and BoE are scheduled to announce their monetary policies on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.35% higher to near 1.3460 during the late Asian trading session on Monday. The Cable extends its week-long advance as market sentiment improves further, following the announcement that the United States (US) and Iran have reached a deal.

At press time, S&P 500 futures are up over 1% and Asian stock markets are exhibiting a broad rally, reflecting a strong risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.4% lower at near 99.40.

Pakistan Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif has stated in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the finalized memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran will be signed on June 19 in Switzerland.

Meanwhile, investors brace for a volatile week, especially for the British Pound (GBP), as an array of United Kingdom (UK) data, including the labor market report for three months ending in April and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, along with the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement, will be key events to watch out.

In the US, investors will focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades sharply higher at around 1.3460 as of writing. The near-term bias has turned mildly bullish as it returns above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.3425.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 53 hovers just above the midline, hinting at steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum while the pair consolidates within this supported backdrop.

On the topside, the primary hurdle is the May 26 high at around 1.3500, followed by the descending resistance trend line, with its break price near 1.3580. On the downside, initial demand would be seen around the 20-EMA at 1.3425, while the upward trend-line support around 1.3327 would remain a key support zone.

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UK GDP Contracted and the Pound is Up?

pril 2026 as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), this marks the first monthly GDP decline since August 2025. Although this contraction aligns with forecasts from economists polled by Reuters, it represents a sharp trend reversal from March, which recorded a 0.3% growth. However, looking at the less volatile three-month perspective, real GDP grew by 0.7% in the period to April 2026, demonstrating that the British economy entered the current crisis on relatively stable foundations.

Chart 1: Real and nominal GDP in the United Kingdom (upper panel) and quarter-on-quarter change (lower panel). In Q1 2026 (January–March), the UK economy grew by 0.6%, offering a solid base by British standards before the effects of the Middle East war materialized. Source: XTB Research based on ONS/Bloomberg data.

How the Iran Conflict Stalled Growth in the United Kingdom

The main catalyst for April’s slowdown is the war between Iran and the US, which recently passed the 100-day mark. The effective blocking of the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial shipping route for oil and many other commodities—paralyzed global supply chains and triggered a sharp surge in energy and fuel prices. As a net energy importer, the UK is exceptionally vulnerable to international energy shocks. A sudden surge in prices at petrol stations forced motorists to drastically cut consumption in April, reversing the positive growth impulses seen at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, ONS surveys revealed widespread complaints from businesses regarding falling turnovers and rising production costs across the wholesale, manufacturing, and transport sectors.

Sector Breakdown: Slump in Services, Stagnation in New Construction

April’s economic slowdown was characterized by uneven performances across core industrial sectors:

  • Services Sector: Recorded a 0.2% decline, becoming the primary driver of the monthly GDP drop. The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector suffered the most, posting a drastic 9.1% fall. This was mainly due to the cancellation of multiple sporting events in the Middle East, which directly hit UK-based companies.
  • Construction: Ticked up marginally by 0.1%. However, this growth came solely from a 0.6% recovery in repair and maintenance. New construction projects fell by 0.3%, complicating the government’s political promises to accelerate housebuilding in the UK.
  • Industrial Production: Showed zero growth (0.0%). Although manufacturing grew by 0.4% (driven by a 4.2% surge in pharmaceutical production), these gains were completely offset by shrinking outputs in the utility sector.

Stagflation Risks and the Bank of England’s Dilemma

The sudden dip in GDP momentum has raised serious concerns about a dangerous descent towards stagflation—a situation where economic stagnation couples with stubborn inflation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already downgraded its 2026 UK economic growth forecast from 1.3% to just 0.8%, warning that Britain could feel the impact of the war most acutely among major economies. Economic conditions could deteriorate further in the third quarter, when the domestic energy price cap is set to rise by 13%, allowing suppliers to pass higher oil and gas costs onto consumers. This leaves the Bank of England in a precarious position ahead of its upcoming interest rate decision. Policymakers must now balance combating war-driven inflation against the risk of triggering a deeper recession.

Following the ONS release, sterling initially lost 0.2% against the dollar as markets scaled back expectations for subsequent rate hikes. Over time, however, a global increase in risk appetite took over in response to easing tensions between the US and Iran, resulting in a weaker dollar. Moreover, the softer GDP does not eliminate the hawkish pressure on the Bank of England, which is widely expected to hold interest rates at 3.75%. Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee may vote for a hike, signaling the central bank’s readiness to combat the prolonged energy shock.

Chart 2: The Bank of England’s main interest rate and UK 2- and 10-year bond yields. Yields are already clearly above the 3.75% rate, signaling hawkish expectations from the debt market, which is organically tightening financial conditions. Source: XTB Research based on Bloomberg data.

Technical Analysis: GBPUSD (D1)

GBPUSD is currently trading slightly up (+0.05%), although the pair on the D1 interval remains in a local downtrend, consolidating around the 1.34158 level. The price is currently moving below key exponential moving averages: EMA 30 (1.34226) and EMA 100 (1.34372), which act as crucial resistance for any building momentum. Following a rebound from recent support near 1.3330, selling pressure has slowed down. The RSI (14) indicator at 49.5 signals complete market neutrality. The next direction depends on a sustained breakout above the moving averages or a return to test the recent lows.

Chart 3: GBPUSD and EURGBP (inverted; blue) exchange rates. Source: xStation5

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Euro steadies against British Pound following UK GDP, German HICP inflation data

  • EUR/GBP remains subdued following the release of data from the UK and Germany.
  • UK GDP contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in April, meeting market forecasts after a 0.3% expansion in March.
  • German May HICP inflation met forecasts, landing at 2.7% year-on-year.

EUR/GBP inches lower after two days of gains, trading around 0.8630 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross remains subdued following the release of economic data from the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany.

The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% MoM in April, following a 0.3% rise reported in March. The market forecast was for a 0.1% decline in the same period. Meanwhile, the Index of Services (April) rose 0.8% 3M/3M versus March’s 0.8%. Meanwhile, monthly Industrial Production came in at 0% MoM in April, while Manufacturing Production increased by 0.4% during the same period.

Money markets are currently pricing in at least a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) this coming September, with a strong probability of a second increase before the end of the year. This potential tightening comes amid broader economic challenges, as political uncertainty surrounding the leadership of the Labour Party continues to weigh on investor sentiment and compound the current downturn.

Over in the Eurozone, inflation data met forecasts as Germany’s revised Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for May landed at 2.7% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, HICP growth experienced a slight contraction of 0.1%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) took aggressive action on Thursday by raising interest rates for the first time in nearly three years. The central bank also signaled a prolonged hawkish stance, indicating that restrictive monetary policy will likely remain firmly in place through 2027.

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British Pound: Bullish bias within higher band against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe that GBP/USD’s surge to 1.3434 has stretched short-term conditions, but further gains toward a retest of 1.3435 remain possible, with 1.3465 unlikely to break. Over 1–3 weeks, they expect range trading in a higher 1.3340–1.3465 band after shifting from a negative to neutral stance, with momentum not yet strong enough for a sustained advance.

Pound holds firm but capped near resistance

“24-HOUR VIEW: While we expected GBP to “edge lower” yesterday, we indicated that “any decline is likely part of a lower range of 1.3330/1.3395.” We added that GBP “is unlikely to break clearly below 1.3330.” GBP subsequently broke below 1.3330 (low of 1.3325), but it then lifted off and surged to a high of 1.3434. While the rapid rise has room to extend, overbought conditions suggest that any advance is likely limited to a retest of 1.3435. The next resistance at 1.3465 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 1.3385; a breach of 1.3365 would indicate that GBP is more likely to range-trade rather than retesting 1.3435.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our view from negative to neutral yesterday (11 Jun, spot at 1.3365). We indicated that the earlier “downward momentum has faded, and for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3300 and 1.3435.” GBP then dipped to 1.3325 and then soared, testing the upper boundary of our range with a high of 1.3434. Upward momentum has increased, but not sufficiently to indicate a sustained advance. For the time being, we continue to expect range-trading, though the range has shifted higher to 1.3340/1.3465.”

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Eyes 1.3400 amid modest USD weakness; remains below weekly top

  • GBP/USD gains some positive traction as easing inflationary concerns weigh on the USD.
  • Fed rate hike bets and rising US-Iran tensions should limit USD losses and cap spot prices.
  • The mixed technical setup, too, warrants caution before positioning for further upside.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and stalls the previous day’s pullback from the 1.3425 region, or the weekly high. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3385 zone, up just over 0.10% for the day, though the upside potential seems limited.

The US Dollar (USD) edges lower as soft US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased concerns about a runaway inflation spiral and turned out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Traders, however, are still pricing in a 70% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year. Apart from this, renewed hostilities between the US and Iran help limit deeper USD losses, capping the upside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent slide from the 1.3655 region. Moreover, repeated failures to build on the momentum beyond the 23.6% Fibo. level warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move in the near-term, despite improving momentum indicators.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the neutral 50 mark. This hints at modest underlying demand but not yet enough to challenge the prevailing topside barriers at 1.3438 (38.2% level) and the 1.3475-1.3480 confluence – the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibo. Above that, the GBP/USD pair could rise to deeper Fibo. hurdles at 1.3520 and 1.3579.

On the downside, structural support is only clearly defined near the recent swing low anchor at 1.3305. A convincing break below this floor would likely reassert bearish momentum and make the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to further weakness. The broader setup, however, reinforces the idea of a market that is consolidating under medium-term resistance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.13%-0.03%-0.05%-0.08%-0.06%-0.21%
EUR0.13%-0.00%0.09%0.07%-0.06%0.09%-0.08%
GBP0.13%0.00%0.11%0.08%-0.04%0.10%-0.08%
JPY0.03%-0.09%-0.11%-0.02%-0.16%-0.02%-0.17%
CAD0.05%-0.07%-0.08%0.02%-0.13%0.02%-0.16%
AUD0.08%0.06%0.04%0.16%0.13%0.15%-0.05%
NZD0.06%-0.09%-0.10%0.02%-0.02%-0.15%-0.17%
CHF0.21%0.08%0.08%0.17%0.16%0.05%0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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British Pound gains ground to near 1.3400 ahead of US CPI release

  • GBP/USD gains traction to near 1.3390 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • Iranian officials warned Gulf states have a “legal and moral responsibility” to prevent US and Israeli strikes. 
  • The US May CPI inflation report will take center stage on Wednesday. 

The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3390 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Markets might turn cautious later in the day ahead of the US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. On Friday, the monthly UK Gross Domestic Product data will be in the spotlight. 

Financial markets had expected the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates twice this year to 3.25%. Since the US-Iran war began, the situation has reversed, and now a rise of 25 basis points (bpd) before December is projected, according to CNBC.

Nonetheless, the potential upside for the British Pound (GBP) might be limited as renewed tensions in the Middle East weigh on the riskier assets. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday warned that its neighbors in the Gulf have a “legal and moral responsibility” to prevent American and Israeli strikes. 

This statement came as the US launched retaliatory strikes against Iran on Tuesday in what it called a proportional response to the shooting down of a US helicopter gunship near the Strait of Hormuz a day earlier. 

The US CPI inflation report will be closely watched as it could give some hints about the US interest rate path. If the reports show hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could lead traders to price in a higher probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates, which would provide some support to the USD against the GBP.