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EUR/GBP flat lines above 0.8650 as markets await BoE, ECB rate decisions

  • EUR/GBP holds steady around 0.8660 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • BoE is expected to hold rates steady despite inflation risk. 
  • Markets anticipate the ECB holding the key rates on Thursday.

The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions later on Thursday. 

The BoE is likely to keep interest rates steady at 3.75% at its April policy meeting on Thursday as policymakers buy time to assess the risks stemming from the energy crunch. BoE governor Andrew Bailey said in the last meeting that, given the UK’s weak labor market and a lack of corporate pricing power, there was no immediate need to change policy. 

However, a UK economist at JPMorgan pointed to strong business activity readings and expansion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in February as underscoring the inflation risks.  “We expect the BoE to create space for a potential near-term hike, with incoming data determining whether and when it will act,” he said. 

The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on Thursday. While rates are expected to hold, markets anticipate the ECB may signal future hikes to combat persistent inflation. All eyes will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference after the meeting for clues about the outlook for rates.

Goldman Sachs analysts see the ECB delivering two 25 basis point (bps) rate hikes in the months ahead. The first being in June, with the next in September, in bringing the deposit rate back to 2.50%.

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EUR/JPY – Price Moves below 186.50, nine-day confluence

  • EUR/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 near the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 53 signals positive, not overstretched momentum.
  • The primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross slips below the ascending channel, signaling a possible bearish reversal.

However, the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish even as it consolidates just under the nine-day EMA, which acts as immediate resistance.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 53, suggesting positive but not overstretched momentum, and hints that dips toward the underlying averages could continue to attract buyers while the broader uptrend structure remains intact.

The rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 around the lower boundary of the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/JPY cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.80.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may fall toward initial support, which lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.19%0.17%0.00%0.05%0.19%0.32%0.40%
EUR-0.19%-0.04%-0.22%-0.17%-0.02%0.07%0.20%
GBP-0.17%0.04%-0.17%-0.12%0.03%0.13%0.23%
JPY0.00%0.22%0.17%0.06%0.20%0.30%0.40%
CAD-0.05%0.17%0.12%-0.06%0.14%0.24%0.35%
AUD-0.19%0.02%-0.03%-0.20%-0.14%0.11%0.24%
NZD-0.32%-0.07%-0.13%-0.30%-0.24%-0.11%0.09%
CHF-0.40%-0.20%-0.23%-0.40%-0.35%-0.24%-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Holds above 1.1700 as USD bulls seem hesitant ahead of FOMC meeting

  • EUR/USD edges lower as the US-Iran stalemate revives demand for the safe-haven USD.
  • Bets for at least one Fed rate cut in 2026 might cap the USD ahead of the FOMC meeting.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a firm direction.

The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to extend the previous day’s retracement slide from levels just above mid-1.1700s.

The uncertainty over the second round of US-Iran peace talks underpins the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for spot prices. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday before placing aggressive bets. This assists the EUR/USD pair to hold above the 1.1700 round-figure mark.

The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the late March low. However, momentum oscillators are mixed and hint that upside pressure is constructive but not impulsive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is marginally positive and above its signal.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips back toward the mid-40s. Adding to this, the overnight failure near the 23.6% Fibo. and the subsequent fall warrants caution before placing positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 1.1749 (23.6% Fibo. level), ahead of a more substantial barrier at the recent cycle high region just ahead of mid-1.1800s.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.1690, with further cushions at the 50.0% level around 1.1643 and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1595. A deeper pullback toward 1.1528 and 1.1442 would only come into view if the EUR/USD pair slips decisively below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.03%-0.22%0.06%0.04%0.15%0.12%
EUR-0.06%-0.04%-0.30%-0.02%-0.04%0.04%0.06%
GBP-0.03%0.04%-0.24%0.03%0.02%0.10%0.10%
JPY0.22%0.30%0.24%0.29%0.28%0.36%0.35%
CAD-0.06%0.02%-0.03%-0.29%-0.02%0.06%0.07%
AUD-0.04%0.04%-0.02%-0.28%0.02%0.09%0.12%
NZD-0.15%-0.04%-0.10%-0.36%-0.06%-0.09%-0.01%
CHF-0.12%-0.06%-0.10%-0.35%-0.07%-0.12%0.00%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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EUR/JPY slips below 186.50 following BoJ policy decision

  • EUR/JPY holds losses after the Bank of Japan policy decision.
  • The BoJ kept its short-term rate at 0.75% on Tuesday, as expected.
  • ECB is expected to keep its deposit rate at 2.0% on Thursday.

EUR/JPY remains subdued after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds losses following the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision.

The Bank of Japan left its short-term rate unchanged at 0.75% after its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, in line with expectations. The decision passed 6–3, with board members Nakagawa, Takata, and Naoki Tamura dissenting and proposing a hike to 1.0%.

BoJ’s Nakagawa said while situation in middle east remained unclear, given economic developments, risks to prices were skewed to the upside under accommodative financial conditions. While, Takata said price stability target had been more or less achieved and that risks to prices in japan were already skewed to the upside due to the second-round effects of price rises stemming from overseas developments.

Economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave policy unchanged at Thursday’s meeting, maintaining its benchmark deposit rate at 2.0%, where it has remained since June last year.

ECB policymakers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid elevated economic uncertainty driven by the Middle East conflict. ECB official Martins Kazaks said last week that “we still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view.”

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EUR/GBP: Loses momentum as BoE turns hawkish – MUFG

MUFG analysts note that EUR/GBP has drifted lower within a 0.8600–0.8800 range as the Pound (GBP) outperforms the Euro (EUR). The euro-zone faces weaker PMIs and rising stagflation risks, while stronger United Kingdom (UK) data and sticky inflation have markets pricing more BoE tightening. They see scope for several Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to vote for a hike, keeping EUR/GBP under pressure.

Pound supported by stronger UK data

“The initial negative impact of the energy price shock on the euro‑zone economy was evident in the latest PMI surveys for April. The surveys showed that business confidence fell sharply in the services sector, while holding up better among manufacturers. The euro‑zone services PMI declined by 2.8 points to 47.4 in April, whereas the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 points to 52.2.”

“For the euro‑zone economy as a whole, the composite PMI dropped by 2.1 points to 48.6, marking its weakest level since November 2024. The index has now fallen by 3.3 points since February, prior to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence has deteriorated more quickly than during the previous energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and is already at much weaker levels.”

“The GBP has held up better than the EUR over the past week, placing modest downward pressure on EUR/GBP, although the pair has remained within a relatively tight 0.8600–0.8800 range since the conflict began. The GBP has been supported by further evidence that the UK economy started the year with more underlying momentum than previously expected, while the initial negative impact of the energy price shock has so far appeared limited.”

“Stronger growth momentum has increased the risk of a hawkish policy update from the BoE this week. The UK rate market has moved to price back in more tightening from the BoE, and the uplift for UK yields has provided more support for the GBP. The 2-year government bond yield in the UK has increased by around 30bps from the recent low compared to around 20bps in the euro-zone and just over 10bps in the US.”

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EUR/USD: EU policy risks and weaker German sentiment – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that China has criticized the European Union’s (EU) proposed Industrial Accelerator Act as discriminatory, warning of possible countermeasures that could affect trade and investor confidence. He also notes a sharp deterioration in Germany’s consumer climate, with GfK sentiment at its weakest since February 2023, as higher energy prices and Iran-related geopolitical tensions weigh on the Euro area outlook and EUR/USD.

Policy frictions and soft German data

“China’s commerce ministry has criticized the EU for its proposed Industrial Accelerator Act. It formally submitted comments on April 24 outlining strong concerns over what it views as discriminatory provisions against foreign investors.”

“It contends that these measures violate core World Trade Organization principles, including most favored nation and national treatment rules, and could undermine fair competition and investor confidence.”

“Germany’s consumer climate for May deteriorated sharply, with the GfK headline indicator falling to -33.3 from -28.1 in April. This marks a 5.2-point decline and the weakest reading since February 2023.”

“Economic expectations deteriorated further to -13.7, reflecting concerns that geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, could derail Germany’s fragile recovery outlook.”

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EUR/USD holds supported as Dollar softens, central bank decisions loom

  • EUR/USD remains supported at the start of the week, helped by a weaker US Dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty.
  • German consumer sentiment deteriorates more than expected, reflecting current economic tensions.
  • Markets await the Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions later this week.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1740 on Monday, up 0.21% on the day, extending Friday’s rebound from the 1.1670 area, despite a more fragile macroeconomic backdrop in the Eurozone.

Latest data from Germany show a marked deterioration in consumer confidence. The GfK index falls to -33.3 in May, its lowest level in more than three years, from -28.1 previously and well below market expectations. This decline highlights the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices on European households. However, the Euro’s (EUR) reaction remains limited, as investors currently focus on external drivers.

The main market catalyst remains developments in the Middle East. Hopes for easing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are supporting risk appetite, weighing on demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). According to reports from Axios, Tehran has submitted a new peace proposal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, fostering cautious optimism. Nevertheless, negotiations remain stalled, and disruptions to Oil supply keep Crude prices near $100 per barrel, a level that could weigh on global growth.

In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, reflecting broad-based weakness in the Greenback. Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, alongside the possibility of a more dovish stance ahead, are also contributing to the downside pressure on the USD.

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming monetary policy decisions this week. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to follow suit on Thursday, although it may signal future tightening amid persistent inflationary pressures, particularly driven by energy prices. According to ING, a firm ECB message regarding a potential rate hike could help keep the Euro supported in the short term.

Overall, despite weakening European fundamentals, EUR/USD dynamics remain primarily driven by external factors, particularly US Dollar movements and geopolitical developments.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.20%-0.19%-0.16%-0.44%-0.51%-0.56%-0.10%
EUR0.20%0.02%0.04%-0.24%-0.27%-0.34%0.10%
GBP0.19%-0.02%0.02%-0.28%-0.32%-0.39%0.08%
JPY0.16%-0.04%-0.02%-0.28%-0.35%-0.41%0.09%
CAD0.44%0.24%0.28%0.28%-0.06%-0.12%0.34%
AUD0.51%0.27%0.32%0.35%0.06%-0.04%0.43%
NZD0.56%0.34%0.39%0.41%0.12%0.04%0.45%
CHF0.10%-0.10%-0.08%-0.09%-0.34%-0.43%-0.45%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP – Hesitation above 0.8655 with bears still in control

  • EUR/GBP bounced up from lows near 0.8650 but remains capped below 0.8670 so far.
  • Weak German consumer confidence data has weighed on the Euro across the board.
  • Technical indicators show a waning bearish pressure.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after finding support at the 0.8655 area late last week. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8670 so far, which leaves the broader bearish trend in play for now.

Data from Germany released earlier on Monday revealed that consumer confidence for May, as measured by the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, deteriorated to its weakest level since February 2023, amid the consequences of the war in Iran. The impact of these figures on the Euro, however, has been cushioned by a mild risk appetite, fuelled by news of ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict. This is keeping the Euro and the Pound moderately positive against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Technical Analysis: Bears are losing momentum

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows the EUR/GBP trading within a bearish channel, although Friday’s upper low and a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that sellers might be losing momentum.

The RSI has been trending higher, although it is still below the 50 midline, highlighting a mild bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is flat near the zero line, pointing to a lack of strong directional momentum, altogether showing an indecisive market.

Bulls would need to confirm above the area around 0.8685 (April 8, 14 lows, and April 24 high) to clear the path towards trendline resistance, now at 0.8705. Key support is at the confluence of Thursday and Friday’s lows, between 0.8655 and 0.8660, and the channel bottom, at 0.8650. Further down, the next target is the March 24 and 26 lows near 0.8635.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.21%-0.16%-0.16%-0.40%-0.49%-0.51%-0.11%
EUR0.21%0.08%0.07%-0.19%-0.26%-0.29%0.10%
GBP0.16%-0.08%0.00%-0.24%-0.34%-0.37%0.04%
JPY0.16%-0.07%0.00%-0.23%-0.34%-0.38%0.08%
CAD0.40%0.19%0.24%0.23%-0.10%-0.14%0.29%
AUD0.49%0.26%0.34%0.34%0.10%-0.01%0.39%
NZD0.51%0.29%0.37%0.38%0.14%0.01%0.41%
CHF0.11%-0.10%-0.04%-0.08%-0.29%-0.39%-0.41%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).