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EUR/JPY Price Remains below ascending triangle top near 186.00

  • EUR/JPY may find immediate resistance at the ascending triangle top near 186.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 55.17, indicating steady, sustainable bullish momentum.
  • The currency cross could find the initial support at the nine-day EMA at 185.42.

EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross is holding above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which reinforces a constructive near-term bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55.17, neutral-to-positive territory, suggesting steady bullish momentum rather than an overstretched rally.

The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross is pressing against ascending triangle resistance near 186.00. This flat ceiling, combined with shallower dips, signals aggressive buying pressure. Because bulls are consistently absorbing the supply at this level, momentum is heavily building for an imminent upside breakout. A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.42, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.09. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.80. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.02%0.06%0.00%-0.04%0.12%0.04%0.00%
EUR-0.02%0.06%-0.04%-0.09%0.13%0.03%-0.02%
GBP-0.06%-0.06%-0.09%-0.14%0.06%-0.02%-0.08%
JPY0.00%0.04%0.09%-0.03%0.15%0.04%0.01%
CAD0.04%0.09%0.14%0.03%0.19%0.09%0.05%
AUD-0.12%-0.13%-0.06%-0.15%-0.19%-0.11%-0.14%
NZD-0.04%-0.03%0.02%-0.04%-0.09%0.11%-0.04%
CHF-0.00%0.02%0.08%-0.01%-0.05%0.14%0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Euro consolidates near four-week top, above mid-1.1400s amid mixed Fed cues, geopolitics

  • EUR/USD struggles to attract follow-through buying amid mixed fundamental cues.
  • Receding Fed rate hike bets keep USD bulls on the defensive and support spot prices.
  • Escalating US-Iran tensions and inflation fears help limit USD losses, capping the pair.

The EUR/USD pair holds steady above the 1.1450 level during the Asian session on Thursday and consolidates its strong gains registered over the past two days, to the highest level since June 18.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and languishes near a four-week low, touched on Wednesday following the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI). In fact, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the PPI unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June. This comes on top of a soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday and further prompts traders to trim their bets for an immediate rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook, in turn, keeps USD bulls on the defensive, which is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict has intensified since the beginning of this week, with US forces launching a fresh round of airstrikes targeting Iranian missile and drone infrastructure on Wednesday. Tehran, on the other hand, has responded with retaliatory drone and missile attacks on US-linked military facilities across the region. Adding to this, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz support elevated crude oil prices. This fuels concerns about energy-driven inflation and revives hawkish Fed expectations, limiting USD losses and capping the EUR/USD pair.

Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring monthly Retail Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, would drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing fresh bullish bets and positioning for any further appreciating move.

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EUR/JPY Price Positions near ascending triangle top around 186.00

  • EUR/JPY near the 186.10 ascending triangle ceiling suggests building bullish pressure.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 56 indicates positive, sustainable upward momentum.
  • The currency cross could find the initial support at the nine-day EMA at 185.35.

EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 185.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is retaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests positive but not overextended momentum, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone.

The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross positioning near the upper boundary of an ascending triangle around 186.10, suggesting that price crowding right against that flat ceiling indicates that buyers are aggressively absorbing all selling pressure at that level. This positioning shows immense bullish pressure. Since the dips are getting shallower, staying near the top suggests a breakout above resistance is likely building up.

A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.35, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.05. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.00%0.12%-0.05%0.08%0.09%0.12%0.11%
EUR-0.00%0.11%-0.04%0.08%0.19%0.13%0.10%
GBP-0.12%-0.11%-0.15%-0.02%0.06%0.02%0.00%
JPY0.05%0.04%0.15%0.09%0.20%0.16%0.15%
CAD-0.08%-0.08%0.02%-0.09%0.10%0.07%0.05%
AUD-0.09%-0.19%-0.06%-0.20%-0.10%-0.01%-0.05%
NZD-0.12%-0.13%-0.02%-0.16%-0.07%0.01%-0.03%
CHF-0.11%-0.10%-0.01%-0.15%-0.05%0.05%0.03%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price – Bulls remain cautious below 23.6% Fibo. and 1.1470 hurdle

  • EUR/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day amid a softer US Dollar.
  • Escalating US-Iran tensions keep geopolitical risk premiums in play and support the USD.
  • The technical setup also warrants some caution before placing bullish bets on the pair.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s pullback from the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal resistance, though it remains confined within a multi-week-old range. Spot prices trade around the 1.1435-1.1440 region during the Asian session on Wednesday, up for the second straight day amid modest US Dollar (USD) weakness.

Softer-than-expected US consumer inflation data, released on Tuesday, forced traders to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, which keeps the USD bulls depressed and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. However, inflation risks stemming from elevated crude oil prices and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s price stability commitment, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, should limit deeper USD losses and cap the currency pair.

The EUR/USD pair has been struggling to find acceptance and build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Adding to this, momentum indicators hint at scope for corrective upticks rather than a clear trend reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests improving but still moderate bullish momentum.

This further warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the EUR/USD pair and positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from the 1.1325 region, or the year-to-date low touched in June. The subsequent resistance below the 23.6% Fibo. aligns at the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, near 1.1490, with the 38.2% retracement near 1.1523 and the 50.0% level around 1.1585 acting as the next relevant hurdles.

On the downside, the main structural support emerges at the Fibonacci anchor close to 1.1323, and a clear break under this floor would likely reinforce the broader bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.16%-0.05%-0.08%-0.10%-0.17%-0.03%-0.00%
EUR0.16%0.05%0.07%0.05%-0.06%0.07%0.15%
GBP0.05%-0.05%0.02%-0.01%-0.11%0.02%0.09%
JPY0.08%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.11%0.03%0.06%
CAD0.10%-0.05%0.01%0.03%-0.07%0.00%0.10%
AUD0.17%0.06%0.11%0.11%0.07%0.11%0.16%
NZD0.03%-0.07%-0.02%-0.03%-0.01%-0.11%0.07%
CHF0.00%-0.15%-0.09%-0.06%-0.10%-0.16%-0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Euro edges higher against British Pound as oil surge lifts ECB rate expectations

  • EUR/GBP strengthens to around 0.8535 in Wednesday’s early European session.
  • US carries out more strikes on Iran. 
  • Traders boosted wagers on faster BoE and ECB rate hikes after rising oil prices.

The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to near 0.8535 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders ramp up bets  on the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes as oil price surge reignites inflation fears. ECB policymakers Fabio Panetta and Joachim Nagel are set to speak later in the day.

US President Donald Trump’s reimposition of a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and payment demand for all other cargo have raised oil-driven inflation concerns. On Tuesday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that it launched further attacks on Iran, hitting dozens of military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian coastal areas.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday that it had targeted what it described as command-and-control, logistics, fuel and military equipment facilities belonging to the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, per Reuters.

Traders are now fully pricing a 25 basis points (bps) BOE hike by September, followed by another before year-end. They also expect the ECB to raise rates by a quarter-point in September, with another hike by year-end all but certain, according to Bloomberg.

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank remains strictly data-dependent. The official policy account explicitly noted that the June hike was neither a guaranteed sequence nor a guaranteed one-off move. On Wednesday, ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that the central bank prepared to implement monetary policy measures whenever necessary. 

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Euro posts modest gains above 1.1350 as traders await US CPI inflation release

  • EUR/USD trades with mild gains around 1.1385 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
  • Trump said that the US will blockade Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and charge ships 20% for safe passage. 
  • Traders brace for the US CPI data later on Tuesday.

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.1385 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid renewed US military strikes against Iran. Traders will take more cues from the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which will be released later on Tuesday. 

US President Donald Trump on Monday announced that the US is reinstating its blockade of Iranian maritime traffic and would impose a toll of 20% on all cargo being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. 

The US military has resumed strikes on Iran, including on the port city of Bandar Abbas and on the Qeshm and Kish islands. In response, Iran has struck two UAE tankers, the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah. Rising tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and create a headwind for the major pair in the near term. 

The US CPI inflation report will be published on Tuesday, which could offer some hints about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. A softer inflation outcome would delay the case for the US interest rate hikes and undermine the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). 

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Euro Drops Near One-Year Low on Middle East Tensions

The euro opened the week at $1.14, nearing its one-year low from June, as investors responded to escalating Middle East tensions. Oil prices surged after another round of US strikes on Iran, with both sides disputing the status of the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command reported striking dozens of targets to weaken Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the waterway. Iran, however, announced on Sunday that the strait would remain closed “until further notice.” The uncertainty fueled inflation concerns, leading investors to bet on further European Central Bank interest rate hikes. The ECB had already raised rates in June for the first time since 2023. Now, markets expect two additional hikes over the next year, with the first likely in September, to counter inflation driven by rising fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict. ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned on Friday that the central bank is “back to square one” in its battle against high inflation in the eurozone.

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EUR/JPY Price Edges higher above 184.50, but stays capped by clustered resistance

  • EUR/JPY gains momentum to near 184.65 in Monday’s Asian session. 
  • The cross keeps a bearish vibe in the near term, with the RSI holding below the midline. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges in the 184.80-184.85 zone; the initial support level is seen at 183.53.

 The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 184.65 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency. 

Furthermore, speculation over domestic asset shifts could underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government is pursuing measures that would include the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to make “substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets. Analysts said this move could offer greater support to ‌the battered currency than intervention.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a mildly bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line. The pair is drifting in the lower half of the recent volatility envelope, with the lower Bollinger band acting as the next downside reference, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.6 hovers just under the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued, consolidative downside pressure rather than a strong trend.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges in the 184.80-184.85 zone, representing the Bollinger 20-day middle band and the 100-day SMA. A daily close above this clustered band would be needed to ease the current downside bias and expose the upper Bollinger band near 186.12. On the downside, the first notable support is the lower Bollinger band at 183.53, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline; a break below this level would reinforce the bearish bias and open the door to a deeper corrective slide.