EUR - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger June 4, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Holds modest gains above 185.50, bullish bias remains intact

EUR/JPY trades with mild gains near 185.65 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross keep a modest bullish bias above the key 100-day SMA.
The first upside barrier emerges at 186.00; the initial support level is seen at 185.15.

The EUR/JPY cross posts modest gains around 185.65 during the early European session on Thursday. The potential upside might be limited for the cross amid fears of foreign exchange intervention from Japanese authorities.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that officials are standing ready to respond appropriately on foreign exchange if required. Katayama added that she aligns with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor on several matters.

On the other hand, the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank might help limit the EUR’s losses. The ECB is likely to raise its deposit rate to 2.25% at its upcoming June policy meeting, with another increase likely in September, a Reuters poll of economists showed.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY trades at 185.64, holding a modest bullish bias as it consolidates above the Bollinger middle band around 185.15 and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near 184.48. The pair is trading closer to the upper half of its recent Bollinger envelope, with the upper band near 186.02 acting as immediate overhead resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 suggests steady but not overstretched upside momentum.

On the topside, a daily close above the Bollinger upper band at 186.02 would open the way for a continuation of the advance toward higher highs in the coming sessions. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 185.15, followed by the 100-day SMA at 184.48 and the lower Bollinger band around 184.28, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if the current pullback deepens.

Currency Hedger June 3, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD declines as traders adopt caution on risk-off mood

EUR/USD depreciates as Middle East tensions drive safe-haven demand for the firm US Dollar.
CENTCOM announced it successfully intercepted multiple Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting Kuwait and Bahrain.
US Dollar remains firm as the Strait of Hormuz closure raises energy prices and inflation, keeping Fed rates higher for longer.

EUR/USD inches lower after moving little in the previous day, trading around 1.1630 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, driven by stalled US-Iran peace negotiations and renewed tensions in the Middle East continued to underpin safe-haven demand.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced Tuesday that it successfully defeated a series of Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting Kuwait and Bahrain. In response to the regional aggression, US forces also executed self-defense strikes against military targets on Iran’s Qeshm Island, per ABC News.

The Strait of Hormuz closure threatens to drive energy prices higher and intensify global inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54 in May 2026, up from 52.7 in the prior two months and beating forecasts to mark the strongest factory expansion since May 2022. April JOLTS data showed Job Openings surging to a nearly two-year high of 7.6118 million alongside declining layoffs. With robust manufacturing and employment data complicating the inflation outlook, investors are now anxiously awaiting Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for definitive clues on the future trajectory of monetary policy.

The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, ticking up from the previous 3% and matching market forecasts. This steady inflationary pressure keeps the spotlight firmly on the European Central Bank’s upcoming monetary policy decisions.

The Euro (EUR) could gain ground amid recent hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) members. ECB policymaker Olli Rehn noted that while long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, a rate move in June should be viewed as a precautionary “insurance hike.” Moreover, fellow ECB member Gediminas Simkus pointed out that inflation expectations currently mirror levels seen four years ago. He strongly emphasized the critical need for the central bank to react in a timely manner to prevent further price pressures from cementing.

Currency Hedger June 3, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Declines below 186.00 amid intervention fears, but bullish vibe prevails

EUR/JPY edges lower to near 185.90 in Wednesday’s early European session.
Japan’s Katayama said the authorities are standing ready to respond appropriately to foreign exchange.
The positive view for the cross remains intact above the key 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
The first upside barrier emerges at 186.10; the initial support level to watch is 185.08.

The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 185.90 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gathers strength against the Euro (EUR) as traders are on alert for intervention from Japanese officials.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that the authorities are ready to act on the foreign exchange if required, adding that she aligns with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor on several matters.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as price trades above the Bollinger middle band around and comfortably over the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact. The latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading at 58.43 sits in positive territory without being overbought, hinting that bullish momentum persists but has not yet reached exhaustion.

On the upside, the immediate resistance level is now aligned with the Bollinger upper band near 186.10, en route to the April 29 high of 187.42. On the other hand, the mid-line around 185.08 reinforcing a nearby demand zone. The next crucial contention level is located near the 100-day SMA at 184.47 and the lower Bollinger band close to 184.07.

Currency Hedger June 2, 2026 No Comments

Technical Analysis – EUR/USD calm despite “hotter” core CPI data from Eurozone

The EUR/USD pair failed to rally despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data, suggesting that investors remain cautious about the euro’s strength amid mixed economic signals from the region. On one hand, inflation pressures appear to be re-emerging, while on the other, cyclical sectors such as manufacturing continue to show weakness, and the labor market is displaying increasingly concerning signs of slowing momentum.

The preliminary May CPI report showed headline inflation rising by 3.2% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and unchanged from the previous reading. However, core CPI surprised to the upside, accelerating to 2.6% versus expectations of 2.4% and the prior reading of 2.2%. EUR/USD is currently trading in the middle of an upward-sloping price channel. The key resistance zone appears to be located around 1.167–1.170, while 1.160 remains an important support level.

The EMA50 and EMA200 moving averages (orange and red lines) are positioned close to current market levels, suggesting that the 1.164 area could act as a short-term momentum pivot. Given that the current relatively modest recovery follows a sharp decline from the 1.20 area, it remains possible that the pair is forming a bearish flag pattern. A break below 1.160 would strengthen that technical scenario and potentially signal a continuation of the broader downtrend.

Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger June 2, 2026 No Comments

Euro consolidates losses against the British Pound despite high inflation figures

EUR/GBP inches up from 0.8639 lows but remains capped below 0.8650 on Tuesday.
The Euro has been little moved by the hot Eurozone inflation levels released earlier on the day.
The Pound maintains a bid tone as UK politics jump into the back seat.

The Euro (EUR) remains vulnerable against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, capped below 0.8650, consolidating losses from the previous two trading days. The hotter Eurozone inflation figures have failed to provide any significant support to the Euro, as they do not alter the view that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike rates next week.

Preliminary data released by Eurostat on Tuesday revealed that the Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) accelerated to a 3.2% year-on-year (YoY) growth in May, in line with market expectations, from 3.0% (YoY) in April. Likewise, the core HICP rose to a one-year high of 2.5% in the 12 months to May, up from 2.2% in April, above market expectations of a 2.4% increase.
The data confirms the inflationary impact of the energy shock stemming from Iran’s war, while the increase in core inflation suggests that price pressures are spilling through the broader economy, adding pressure on households and businesses. This practically confirms a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

The Sterling, on the other hand, is showing some strength as Prime Minister Keir Starmer seems to have withstood calls to resign, following the disastrous result in May’s local elections, which eases concerns about a void of power, at least for now.

Earlier on Tuesday, Consumer Credit eased to GBP 1.86 billion in April from the upwardly revised GBP1.90 billion in March, with Mortgage approvals increasing to 65.94K from 63,97 K in March against market expectations of a moderate decline. Net Lending to Individuals fell to GBP 6.2 billion in April from GBP 8.7 billion in March. The Pound, however, was little moved after these figures.

Currency Hedger June 2, 2026 No Comments

Euro Little-Changed as Investors Assess Inflation Data

The euro held near $1.165 as investors processed mixed signals from Eurozone inflation data and the Middle East conflict. Euro-area inflation climbed to 3.2% in May, its highest in over two and a half years, driven by soaring energy costs tied to the war. However, core inflation accelerated more than expected to 2.5%, and services inflation rose to 3.5%, signaling broadening price pressures beyond energy. The data precedes next week’s European Central Bank meeting, with markets pricing in a 95% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, with two or possibly three increases expected this year. Meanwhile, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel cautioned on Monday that it’s premature to specify the number of rate hikes needed, while Lithuania’s Gediminas Šimkus suggested another hike after June is probable. Elsewhere, oil prices fell amid conflicting reports from US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Lebanon talks, with Iran pausing US negotiations until clashes cease.

Currency Hedger June 1, 2026 No Comments

Euro holds losses against British Pound after Germany’s Retail Sales data

EUR/GBP softens to around 0.8655 in Monday’s early European session.
German Retail Sales declined by 0.3% MoM in April.
BoE’s Bailey signalled there was no urgency to raise interest rates.

The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory near 0.8655 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Euro (EUR) remains weak against the British Pound (GBP) following the upbeat German Retail Sales data. The preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) from the Eurozone will be released on Tuesday.

Data released by Destatis on Monday showed that German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, fell 0.3% MoM in April. This figure followed a fall of 0.3% (revised from -2.0%) and came in better than the market expectation of a 0.4% decrease.

On an annualized basis, Retail Sales dropped 0.3% in April, versus the prior release of a 0.2% decline (revised from -2.0%). The German economic data fails to boost the EUR in an immediate reaction.

On the UK’s front, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that the UK central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates while the outcome of the Iran war remains uncertain and the UK’s growth rate stays weak. “We have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required,” said Bailey.

Money market futures now imply 32 basis points (bps) of tightening this year, one quarter-point hike, and roughly a 30% chance of a second, according to Reuters.

Currency Hedger June 1, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower from upper descending channel top around 186.00

EUR/JPY may retest the upper boundary of the descending channel around 186.00.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 57 suggests upward momentum should persist.
The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA at 185.33.

EUR/JPY steadies after six days of gains, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The alignment of price over short- and medium-term moving averages hints at sustained underlying demand, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting upside pressure could persist as long as these floors remain intact.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is positioned near the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern around 186.00. The sustained break above the channel would indicate bullish confirmation. Further advance would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.33, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.98. A break below moving averages would revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by nearly six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.10%	-0.04%	0.13%	0.08%	-0.02%	0.31%	0.28%
EUR	-0.10%		-0.12%	0.00%	-0.02%	-0.07%	0.23%	0.16%
GBP	0.04%	0.12%		0.15%	0.10%	-0.02%	0.33%	0.27%
JPY	-0.13%	0.00%	-0.15%		-0.03%	-0.13%	0.21%	0.14%
CAD	-0.08%	0.02%	-0.10%	0.03%		-0.11%	0.23%	0.18%
AUD	0.02%	0.07%	0.02%	0.13%	0.11%		0.28%	0.27%
NZD	-0.31%	-0.23%	-0.33%	-0.21%	-0.23%	-0.28%		-0.05%
CHF	-0.28%	-0.16%	-0.27%	-0.14%	-0.18%	-0.27%	0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).