EUR - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger May 14, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 1.1700 near 50-day EMA

EUR/USD may test the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.1730
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 50, indicating a lack of strong direction.
The lower ascending channel boundary is acting as immediate support, near the 50-day EMA at 1.1697.

EUR/USD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.1710 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is positioned on the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

The EUR/USD pair is holding just above the 50-day Exponential Moving average (EMA) but still capped by the nine-day EMA, which keeps the near-term tone broadly neutral with a slight bullish tilt. The price hovering between these averages suggests consolidation after recent gains, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 hints at balanced momentum rather than a strongly directional move.

On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1730, followed by the 12-week high of 1.1849, reached on April 17. A break above this level would support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.2040. Further advances above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair is positioned on the lower ascending channel boundary, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 1.1697. Further declines will put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.04%	-0.05%	-0.03%	-0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	-0.06%
EUR	0.04%		-0.03%	0.00%	0.03%	0.00%	0.06%	-0.02%
GBP	0.05%	0.03%		0.02%	0.06%	0.06%	0.09%	0.03%
JPY	0.03%	0.00%	-0.02%		-0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	-0.05%
CAD	0.01%	-0.03%	-0.06%	0.00%		0.04%	0.06%	0.00%
AUD	-0.02%	0.00%	-0.06%	-0.03%	-0.04%		0.05%	-0.00%
NZD	-0.06%	-0.06%	-0.09%	-0.06%	-0.06%	-0.05%		-0.07%
CHF	0.06%	0.02%	-0.03%	0.05%	-0.00%	0.00%	0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger May 13, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Forecast – Consolidates below mid-1.1700s as Iran risks, Fed bets support USD

EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction as a combination of factors supports the USD.
Fed rate hike bets and rising US-Iran tensions underpin the buck, capping the upside for the pair.
The technical setup warrants some caution for bearish traders and positioning for deeper losses.

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating the previous day’s heavy losses and oscillating in a narrow band, below mid-1.1700s, during the Asian session on Wednesday. Traders now seem hesitant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

In the meantime, hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released on Tuesday lifted market bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Apart from this, the diminishing odds for a US-Iran peace deal, amid disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent move up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has been along an upward-sloping channel. Moreover, spot prices hold above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, maintaining a modestly constructive near-term tone despite softening momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased towards the mid-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped slightly below zero with the histogram turning negative. This hints that upside traction is losing strength even as the EUR/USD pair stays supported by its underlying trend structure.

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the ascending channel support near the 1.1715 region and the 200-period SMA at 1.1692 before positioning for further losses. Acceptance below the latter would weaken the EUR/USD pair’s current constructive bias and expose deeper retracements within the broader range.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the upper boundary of the parallel channel around 1.1830. A convincing breakout through the said barrier would open the way for a more decisive bullish extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.12%	0.16%	0.69%	0.11%	-0.15%	-0.03%	0.35%
EUR	-0.12%		0.03%	0.65%	-0.03%	-0.29%	-0.20%	0.21%
GBP	-0.16%	-0.03%		0.11%	-0.05%	-0.34%	-0.21%	0.17%
JPY	-0.69%	-0.65%	-0.11%		-0.64%	-0.86%	-0.73%	-0.30%
CAD	-0.11%	0.03%	0.05%	0.64%		-0.17%	-0.09%	0.22%
AUD	0.15%	0.29%	0.34%	0.86%	0.17%		0.12%	0.51%
NZD	0.03%	0.20%	0.21%	0.73%	0.09%	-0.12%		0.36%
CHF	-0.35%	-0.21%	-0.17%	0.30%	-0.22%	-0.51%	-0.36%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger May 13, 2026 No Comments

EUR moves little against JPY as risk aversion increases

EUR/JPY remains steady as the Euro declines, offsetting Yen weakness.
The OECD projects the Bank of Japan will increase short-term policy rates to 2% by the end of 2027.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that rising energy costs make an ECB interest rate hike increasingly likely.

EUR/JPY remains flat after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 185.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross remains stable as the Euro’s (EUR) decline is driven by a wave of risk aversion following faded hopes for Middle East peace, which effectively offsets Japanese Yen (JPY) weakness.

However, the Japanese Yen may gain ground against its major peers as the Bank of Japan’s April Summary of Opinions revealed that policymakers are considering further rate hikes as early as their next meeting, driven largely by inflation risks linked to rising oil prices.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has recommended that Japan primarily utilize consumption tax increases to bolster its national revenue. On the monetary front, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is projected to raise short-term policy rates to 2% by the end of 2027, though it must remain flexible enough to modify the pace and maturity of its bond-buying activities should financial or bond market disruptions occur.

The Euro may also receive support from a hawkish tone surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday that the probability that the central bank will need to raise borrowing costs due to the Iran war is rising. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Monday that there’s no need to delay the interest rate hikes if energy prices don’t improve swiftly.

On the data front, Japan’s current account surplus increased to JPY 4,681.5 billion in March from JPY 3,625.3 billion in the same month a year earlier. These figures surpassed market expectations of JPY 3,879 billion, marking the largest amount on record. Traders now await the Eurozone quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Employment Change data for the first quarter of 2026 due later in the day.

Currency Hedger May 12, 2026 No Comments

U.S. CPI data set to show another jump in inflation to highest level in nearly three years

The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 3.7% YoY in April as energy prices remain persistently high.
Annual core CPI inflation is expected to edge slightly higher to 2.7%.
EUR/USD’s technical outlook highlights a bullish stance that lacks momentum.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday. The report is expected to show another significant leap in consumer inflation after March’s sharp increase, driven by the elevated Oil prices due to the ongoing conflict between the United States (US) and Iran.

The monthly CPI is forecast to rise 0.6%, following the 0.9% increase recorded in March, while the annual reading is seen climbing to its highest level since September 2023 at 3.7%, from 3.3% in March. Core CPI figures, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are expected to come in at 0.4% and 2.7%, on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively.

From the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East on February 28 to the end of April, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose more than 50%. Although crude Oil prices corrected lower in the first week of May, they are still about 40% above where they were before the US-Iran war.

Previewing the inflation data, “our economists expect headline inflation to rise by +0.58% month-on-month, moderating from March’s +0.9%, but still relatively firm,” said Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid.

“In contrast, the core measure is projected to accelerate to +0.39% MoM from +0.2%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky even as energy-related effects fade. The YoY rates would move from 3.3% to 3.8% for the former and from 2.6% to 2.8% for the latter,” Reid added.

What to expect in the next CPI data report?

CPI figures for April will reflect the impact of persistently high Oil prices on inflation. Since this is largely anticipated, core inflation figures will help markets gauge whether rising energy costs are spilling over into the broader economy and driving up the prices of other goods and services.

A reading above the market expectation of 0.4% in the monthly core CPI could feed into concerns over high inflation getting entrenched in the economy. Conversely, a print below analysts’ forecast could ease fears over prices getting out of control. Still, even in this latter scenario, investors are unlikely to breathe a sigh of relief because the US-Iran crisis remains unresolved and the lack of naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose a significant risk to global energy supply chains.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said the price shock from a prolonged closure of the strait could put inflation expectations at risk and requires a strong policy response. Similarly, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that inflation is meaningfully above the Fed’s target and added that policymakers need to worry about the underlying inflation, along with tariff and Oil shocks.

How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?

Markets currently see about a 73% chance of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year, and price in about a 20% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

A stronger-than-forecast monthly core CPI print for April could cause investors to lean toward a rate hike later in the year. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) could gather strength with the immediate reaction.

On the other hand, a soft core CPI print could have the opposite effect on the USD’s valuation. However, unless there are any significant developments hinting at the US-Iran conflict coming to an end soon, any negative impact on the USD could remain short-lived.

“Investors will be on heightened alert for the possibility of further delays to the first rate cut – or even an inability to ease in 2H26 altogether – should energy prices rise sharply and persistently due to an escalation or prolongation of the Middle East conflict,” UOB Group’s Alvin Liew explains.

“A broader oil-related price spillover across the CPI basket would materially complicate the inflation outlook, raising the risk that the anticipated year-end cut is pushed into 2027,” Liew elaborates.

Eren Sengezer, FXStreet European Session Lead Analyst, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD.

“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook points to a bullish stance that lacks strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 50 but retreats after testing 60, and the pair struggles to pull away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) despite closing well above it to end the previous week.”

“On the upside, the first resistance area aligns at 1.1800-1.1820, where the upper limit of the Bollinger Band and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the February-April downtrend align. In case EUR/USD manages to stabilize above this region, 1.1900-1.1910 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) could be seen as the next hurdle ahead of 1.2000 (psychological level).”

Looking south, a strong support area seems to have formed at 1.1730-1.1680 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA). If EUR/USD drops below the lower limit of this range and starts using it as resistance, technical sellers could take action. In this case, 1.1660 (ascending trend line) could be seen as an interim support level before 1.1560 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).”

Currency Hedger May 12, 2026 No Comments

EUR gains against the JPY following Japan’s Household Spending data

EUR/JPY rises as the Japanese Yen weakens following disappointing Japanese household spending data and shrinking consumer demand.
The BoJ Summary shows some members favor rate hikes while others urge caution regarding Middle East instability.
The Euro gains ground as hawkish ECB rhetoric fuels expectations for continued interest rate hikes through June.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the fourth successive day, trading around 185.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross appreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles following the disappointing release of Japan’s Household Spending data.

Japan’s economic outlook faced renewed pressure on Tuesday after the internal affairs ministry reported a significant 2.9% year-over-year drop in consumer spending for March. This steeper-than-expected decline marks the fourth consecutive month of shrinking personal expenditures, as persistent inflationary pressures continue to erode household purchasing power. The data underscores a fragile domestic recovery, further complicated by growing global economic anxiety stemming from the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

Inside the Bank of Japan (BoJ), policymakers appear to be navigating a complex path toward normalization. The Summary of Opinions from the April meeting revealed that while some members believe real interest rates are low enough to support further hikes, others remain wary of the unpredictable Middle East situation. Despite these geopolitical uncertainties, the consensus suggests that a rate hike remains likely as early as the next meeting. This hawkish tilt was complemented by diplomatic efforts, as Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reaffirmed close cooperation on currency stability with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Meanwhile, the EUR/JPY cross continues to gain traction, bolstered by a resilient Euro (EUR) and a decisively hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Governing Council member Martin Kocher emphasized that the bank will not hesitate to push forward with interest rate hikes if energy prices remain elevated. With financial markets now pricing in a 92% probability of a rate hike in June and anticipating three total increases by 2026, the widening policy divergence between the ECB and the BoJ is providing a steady tailwind for the pair.

Currency Hedger May 12, 2026 No Comments

Eur softens below 1.1800 on US-Iran ceasefire risks, traders await US CPI data

EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1775 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire was on ‘massive life support.’
Hawkish expectations for the ECB might help limit the Euro’s losses.

The EUR/USD pair loses ground to near 1.1775 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders turn cautious ahead of the US April inflation report and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Reuters reported on Monday that Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s military was fully prepared to retaliate against any future attacks after rising tensions threatened the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.

Earlier Monday, US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between the US and Iran is on “massive life support” after he rejected Tehran’s latest peace offer, which he called “simply unacceptable.” Signs of a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair in the near term.

On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) could provide some support to the shared currency. ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Monday that there’s no need to delay the interest rate hikes if energy prices don’t improve swiftly.

Financial markets are now pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) hike at the June meeting, with a total of three hikes anticipated by the end of 2026, according to Reuters.

Currency Hedger May 11, 2026 No Comments

British Pound – Political risks drags against Euro – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes Sterling is softening after UK local elections, as Labour’s losses fuel talk of a leadership contest and a leftward policy shift. He highlights the risk of developments around Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham re-entering parliament. Turner says markets will focus on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s policy speech and expects EUR/GBP to revisit the overnight high at 0.8675.

Sterling pressured by Labour uncertainty

“Sterling is softening a little as markets digest the fall-out from local UK elections held late last week. While Labour losses were not quite as bad as feared, they have failed to quell speculation over a Labour leadership contest and a clear leftward drift in government policy.”

“Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham remains waiting in the wings and the markets will react to any news such as Burnham resigning as mayor or a sitting Labour MP resigning to make way for Burnham’s return to parliament.”

“The key focus this morning will be a policy speech from PM Keir Starmer on how he plans to address Labour’s falling popularity and take the party into the next election. The wild card here is how far he intends to embrace a return to Europe, whether that be rejoining the customs union or more controversially, the single market. “

“It will be tough for Starmer to win over his critics, and we suspect EUR/GBP finds its way back to the overnight high at 0.8675.”

Currency Hedger May 11, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – USDCAD, AUDUSD, EURNZD

Key takeaways

What is the technical outlook for USDCAD, AUDUSD and EURNZD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. USDCAD USDCAD prices remained in a downtrend throughout April, but in recent days the 1:1 downtrend pattern has been negated at the 1.3630 level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, may signal a significant upward correction or even a trend reversal. Currently, the key support level remains at 1.3655, where the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern is located. As long as the price remains above this level, the bullish scenario remains in place. Conversely, a return below 1.3630, i.e. below the polarity of the previously negated pattern, could once again open the way for further declines.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD The AUDUSD exchange rate has been on an upward trend since the beginning of April. The key support level for the exchange rate is currently 0.7170. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the upward trend remains in place.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation EURNZD Since 7 April, the EURNZD has been trading in a downtrend. Should the upward correction extend, the key resistance level remains at 1.9872. As long as the price stays below this level, the bearish scenario remains in place. Conversely, for a return to the uptrend to be considered, the price would need to rise above the 1.9969 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 upward geometry is located.

EURNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation