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Canadian Dollar weakens despite higher oil prices

  • USD/CAD rises as the US Dollar holds gains amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The Greenback’s upside could be restrained as traders price out any Fed rate hike for this month and September.
  • The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar may gain support from higher oil prices.

USD/CAD gains ground for the third successive day, trading around 1.4210 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds ground, which could be attributed to the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the upside of the Greenback could be restrained as traders price out any Federal Reserve rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated.

Furthermore, a recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by an OPEC+ production boost and a US-Iran peace deal, has alleviated broader inflationary pressures, softening the urgency for an aggressive Fed policy outlook.

The upside of the USD/CAD pair could be capped as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains support from higher oil prices. Although Canada is a major crude exporter, lower oil prices diminish foreign capital inflows, ultimately weighing on the loonie dollar.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around $69.40 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices received a temporary boost following reports that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels transiting the strategic waterway late Monday.

While two ships sustained significant damage, no casualties were reported. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed that a southbound tanker was struck on its port side by an unknown projectile, which ignited a fire on board.

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USD/CHF Price – Resistance at 0.8075 remains in focus as dips find buyers

  • USD/CHF remains bid above 0.8050, with 0.8075 resistance under pressure.
  • The Swiss Franc remains on the back foot after the downbeat Swiss employment report released on Monday.
  • Technically, the pair is in an A-B-C correction, following a 5-wave bullish cycle.

The US Dollar (USD) trades higher for the second consecutive day against the Swiss Franc (CHF). Downdside attempts remain shallow so far, amid a calm market mood, and the immediate trend shows a mild bullish stance, with resistance at the 0.8075 area under pressure.

On the macroeconomic front, data from the Swiss National Bank revealed that Foreign Currency Reserves rose to CHF759 billion in June, from CHF 711 billion in May. 

The Swissie, however, remains weighed by the downbeat employment figures released on Monday, which showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to a five-year high of 3.1%. Later in the day, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) met expectations with solid growth in activity, while the S&P Global Services PMI revealed an unexpected slowdown.

Technical Analysis: Looking for direction above 0.8050

Chart Analysis USD/CHF

USD/CHF is in a corrective phase after completing a 5-wave (Elliot Wave) bullish cycle, with momentum indicators showing mixed signals. The daily chart reflects a constructive Relative Strength Index (14), near 58, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative territory.

Bulls need to break resistance around 0.8075 (June 26, 30 lows and July 6 high) to confirm the completion of the corrective phase, and shift focus towards the late June and early July highs, between 0.8120 and 0.8135.

On the downside, a bearish reaction below 0.8045 session lows would add pressure towards Friday’s trading floor at the 0.8010 area. If this level gives way, an A-B=C-D correction would target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement off the bullish run, just above 0.7900.

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.10%-0.23%0.37%0.17%-0.06%0.39%0.43%
EUR-0.10%-0.36%0.26%0.04%-0.13%0.25%0.28%
GBP0.23%0.36%0.50%0.39%0.23%0.61%0.63%
JPY-0.37%-0.26%-0.50%-0.24%-0.32%0.02%0.02%
CAD-0.17%-0.04%-0.39%0.24%-0.10%0.27%0.24%
AUD0.06%0.13%-0.23%0.32%0.10%0.38%0.41%
NZD-0.39%-0.25%-0.61%-0.02%-0.27%-0.38%0.02%
CHF-0.43%-0.28%-0.63%-0.02%-0.24%-0.41%-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

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Offshore Yuan Extends Fall

The offshore yuan depreciated to around 6.80 per dollar on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session and hitting a one-week low as investors weighed the latest outlook for China’s economy. The World Bank projected China’s economic growth to slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, citing a prolonged property market downturn and subdued consumer spending. Meanwhile, the government also set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%–5.0%, the lowest since 1991 and the first downward revision since 2023, after maintaining a target of around 5% over the previous three years. Separately, the PBoC announced measures to strengthen Hong Kong’s role as an offshore yuan hub. These include more than doubling the RMB Business Facility to 500 billion yuan, raising the annual Southbound Bond Connect quota to 800 billion yuan from 500 billion yuan, and pledging support for more yuan-denominated commodity products following the launch of a new gold clearing system in Hong Kong backed by major banks.

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EUR/USD Price – Turns broadly sideways below 20-day EMA

  • EUR/USD edges down to near 1.1433 as the US Dollar ticks higher.
  • The FOMC Minutes of the June meeting will be the major driver for the US Dollar this week.
  • The ECB seems to be following the Fed’s footsteps, refusing to deliver remarks on the monetary policy outlook.

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.1433 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) edges up, while investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.92.

Investors keep an eye on the FOMC Minutes to identify reasons probably responsible for restricting policymakers from delivering forward guidance on monetary policy decisions.

In the June monetary policy press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that policymakers agreed that the “so-called forward guidance is not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.

Like the Fed, officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) also appear not in favor of delivering remarks regarding the monetary policy outlook.

Over the weekend, ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin also denied providing cues regarding the central bank’s decision in July, while speaking at the Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence. “We are not doing forward guidance so I won’t say what we will do in July,” Moulin said.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1430, keeping a bearish near-term tone as the pair holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1460. The fact that price remains under this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies are still being capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.9 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1460, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for a stronger rebound. Looking up, the pair could advance to the psychological level of 1.1500 if it breaks above the moving average.

On the downside, the yearly low around 1.1330 will be the key support zone; a break below it would expose the pair to the 29 May 2025 low at 1.1210.

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Euro languishes at one-year lows against the British Pound despite positive German data

  • EUR/GBP holds losses around 0.8540, despite a sharp increase in German Industrial Production.
  • Factory output rose 0.9% in Germany in May, beyond the 0.2% expected by the market.
  • The Euro has dropped more than 1% in about a week, as markets pare back ECB tightening hopes.

The Euro (EUR) has failed to draw support from the upbeat German industrial figures released earlier on Tuesday and consolidates losses at one-year lows against the British Pound (GBP). The EUR/GBP pair trades at 0.8540, its lowest price since July last year, after falling from levels above 0.8600 last week.

Data released by the German statistics office on Tuesday showed that  Industrial Production increased 0.9% in May, more than twice April’s 0.4% rise, and well above the 0.2% increase forecasted by the market analysts.

In the UK, the Lloyds House Price Index, released at the same time, has shown a 0.2% increase in June, following a 0.1% contraction in May, also beating expectations of a 0.1% rise. Year-over-year, housing prices accelerated to a 0.6% growth, from the 0.5% seen in May, according to the Lloyds report.

The Euro loses support from ECB’s monetary policy

The pair has depreciated more than 1% since last week, as soft German consumer price data suggested that inflationary pressures from the Middle East war might have already peaked, easing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates in the near term.

ECB President Christine Lagarde refused to commit to any particular rate path at a central bankers’ summit in Sintra last week. Her comments pointing to levelled risks for growth and inflation and denying second-round effects on inflation, however, suggest that the bank is likely to stand pat in July after June’s rate hike.

This has deprived the Euro of the favourable monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Bank of England (BoE), which is not expected to change its monetary policy in the coming months.

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NZD remains subdued as US Dollar gains on renewed Hormuz tensions

  • NZD/USD falls as a steady US Dollar draws support from renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this month and in September.
  • ING anticipates the RBNZ will implement a 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.50% this Wednesday.

NZD/USD inches lower for the second successive day, trading around 0.5700 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds ground, which could be attributed to the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bloomberg reported, citing a United States (US) official, that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels transiting the strategic waterway late Monday. While two ships sustained significant damage, no casualties were reported. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed that a southbound tanker was struck on its port side by an unknown projectile, which ignited a fire on board.

Market participants scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated. Furthermore, a recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by an OPEC+ production boost and a US-Iran peace deal, has alleviated broader inflationary pressures, softening the urgency for an aggressive Fed policy outlook.

Despite a sharp collapse in oil prices, ING anticipates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will implement a 25-basis-point “insurance” rate hike to 2.50% on Wednesday. However, the firm cautions that the tightening could be a one-off move, offering little sustained upward momentum for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

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AUD/USD – Eases from two-week top; 38.2% Fibo. near 0.6955 holds the key

  • AUD/USD attracts sellers after a modest Asian session uptick to a two-week high.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing fresh directional bets.
  • A move beyond the 38.2% Fibo. is needed to back the case for a meaningful upside.

The AUD/USD retreats slightly from the 0.6960 area, or a two-week high, touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak. The intraday downtick, however, lacks bearish conviction, warranting caution before confirming that a one-week-old recovery move from a three-month low has run out of steam.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to make it through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Furthermore, mixed momentum oscillators make it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the said barrier before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near 0.6870.

In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting at a slight improvement in the upside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 suggests only modest directional pressure, consistent with a consolidative bias around current levels, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz support the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6853, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 61.8% Fibo. near 0.6752, with 0.6608 and 0.6425 marking subsequent retracement and cycle-low supports if selling extends. On the topside, a break above the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6954 would open the way toward the 23.6% retracement barrier at 0.7079, while the cycle high around 0.7282 stands as a more distant objective should bullish momentum gain traction.

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

Australian Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.99%-0.10%0.04%-0.83%-0.85%-0.25%
EUR0.13%-0.88%0.04%0.15%-0.71%-0.66%-0.12%
GBP0.99%0.88%0.93%1.01%0.15%0.21%0.75%
JPY0.10%-0.04%-0.93%0.17%-0.69%-0.64%-0.18%
CAD-0.04%-0.15%-1.01%-0.17%-0.87%-0.80%-0.28%
AUD0.83%0.71%-0.15%0.69%0.87%-0.01%0.59%
NZD0.85%0.66%-0.21%0.64%0.80%0.01%0.51%
CHF0.25%0.12%-0.75%0.18%0.28%-0.59%-0.51%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Japanese Yen strengthens amid looming intervention risks; lacks bullish conviction

  • USD/JPY drifts lower during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited.
  • The wide US-Japan rate differential might continue to weigh on the JPY and support the pair.
  • Economic risks due to Hormuz tensions further warrant some caution for aggressive JPY bulls.

The USD/JPY pair extends the previous day’s late pullback from the vicinity of mid-162.00s and attracts some follow-through sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices drop to the 161.70-161.65 region in the last hour, though the downside remains cushioned in the absence of any intervention by Japanese authorities and a supportive fundamental backdrop.

Reports last week suggested that Japanese officials are abandoning their traditional habit of telegraphing intervention risks and are starting to focus on targeting speculators. The immediate market reaction, however, seems to have faded as no action has been taken yet. Moreover, the wide gap in borrowing costs between Japan and other major economies, including the US, keeps the so-called carry trade in play and continues to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid economic risks stemming from Middle East tensions.

In fact, a maritime agency reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting through the critical Strait of Hormuz. This comes on top of the US-Iran standoff over the idea of Iran charging vessels for using the strait and adds to worries that Japan’s economy will remain under strain due to the continued disruption of energy supplies. Moreover, concerns about the sustainability of the fragile US-Iran peace deal benefit the US Dollar’s (USD) relative safe-haven status and support the USD/JPY pair.

On the economic data front, Japan’s nominal wages – or total cash earnings – rose 3.2% in May, slightly slower ​than a revised 3.6% gain in the previous month. Meanwhile, real wages rose 1.4% from a year earlier to mark a fifth consecutive month ​of increases, though the growth rate slowed amid ‌re-accelerating consumer inflation. Furthermore, Household Spending in Japan fell for the sixth straight month, by 0.4% YoY in May. This might complicate the BoJ’s policy tightening path and backs the case for further JPY depreciation.

Meanwhile, reduced bets for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a headwind for the USD and might keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that spot prices have topped out in the near-term, as traders now look to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.04%-0.16%0.04%-0.04%-0.07%-0.01%
EUR0.03%-0.03%-0.15%0.05%0.00%-0.03%0.01%
GBP0.04%0.03%-0.11%0.09%0.04%-0.00%0.05%
JPY0.16%0.15%0.11%0.20%0.13%0.09%0.15%
CAD-0.04%-0.05%-0.09%-0.20%-0.08%-0.09%-0.05%
AUD0.04%-0.00%-0.04%-0.13%0.08%-0.04%0.02%
NZD0.07%0.03%0.00%-0.09%0.09%0.04%0.05%
CHF0.00%-0.01%-0.05%-0.15%0.05%-0.02%-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).