Currency Talk – USDJPY, EURNZD, NZDUSD (16.04.2026)

April 16, 2026

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDJPY, EURNZD, and NZDUSD?

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. USDJPY USDJPY has been trending upward for quite some time. Looking back to the lows in February, the largest correction was around 230 pips. The current correction is of a similar magnitude, which allows us to identify key support at the 158.10 level, derived from the 1:1 ratio. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as this level is not broken, the uptrend remains in effect. If it is broken, the correction could deepen, and the next significant support would be at 155.11, where the lower boundary of a larger 1:1 pattern with a range of approximately 530 pips is located.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation EURNZD Since February, the EURNZD pair has been attempting to return to an uptrend. Currently, the price is hovering near a key support level at 1.9965, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a local 1:1 uptrend pattern formed from the low on February 3. According to the Overbalance methodology, holding this level could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. On the other hand, a break below it would open the way for declines. The bearish scenario would be confirmed if the price falls below 1.9855, where the upper boundary of the previous 1:1 downward pattern is located. In that case, a move toward the lows at 1.9540 would be possible.

EURNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation NZDUSD NZDUSD prices have recently negated the largest 1:1 corrective downtrend, which may suggest the possibility of a larger corrective uptrend or even a trend reversal. Currently, the key support zone is between 0.5835 and 0.5828. This zone stems both from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 upward pattern and from the polarity of the previously negated downward geometry. As long as the price remains above this zone, the base scenario remains bullish. Conversely, a drop below 0.5828 could signal a return to the downtrend.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

EUR/JPY – Weakens to near 187.50, while staying bullish above 100-day EMA

April 16, 2026
  • EUR/JPY softens to around 187.50 in Thursday’s early European session.
  • The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 187.95; the initial support level is seen at 186.20.

The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 187.50 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she told the G7 to closely watch forex moves.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predicting the move, and a hike in April or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the fallout from the Iran war.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair is pressing the upper side of its recent volatility envelope, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just under overbought territory around 69, which suggests strong upward momentum but also hints that upside could become stretched if gains extend without a corrective pause.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band of 187.95, en route to 188.50. On the downside, any pullback would likely find first demand near the April 13 low of 186.20. The next contention level is seen at the middle Bollinger Band of 185.00, with a deeper setback exposing the rising 100-day EMA at 182.75.

USD/JPY – Bounces off one-week low, defends trading range support near 158.25

April 16, 2026
  • USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session as renewed intervention fears boost the JPY.
  • Iran diplomacy hopes and fading hawkish Fed bets undermine the USD, further weighing on the pair.
  • Bears await a sustained break below the trading range support before positioning for further losses.

The USD/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following the previous day’s modest rise and drops to over a one-week low, around the 158.25 region during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around the 158.70 area, down over 0.15% for the day.

Comments from Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, saying that she discussed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on foreign exchange, revived intervention fears, and boosted the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, hopes for Iran diplomacy and fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations drag the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since late February. These turned out to be key factors exerting pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

However, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz keep a lid on any further JPY appreciation and assist the currency pair to bounce off the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support on the 4-hour chart. The said area also represents the lower end of a short-term trading range, and a break below will be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears, which should pave the way for deeper losses.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has slipped into negative territory and continues to edge lower. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 41 hovers in neutral-to-bearish ground, hinting that the momentum is softening and buyers are losing some control. This further makes it prudent to wait for a decisive breakdown of structure before placing fresh bearish bets around the USD/JPY pair.

A clear break and acceptance below the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, where buyers have room to defend the recent consolidation floor, would expose bigger corrective risk. However, as long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, the underlying bias stays modestly bullish, and any recovery attempts from current levels would likely be viewed as a continuation of the prevailing uptrend rather than the start of a sustained reversal.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.09%-0.11%-0.17%-0.16%-0.26%-0.01%-0.14%
EUR0.09%-0.03%-0.07%-0.07%-0.17%0.05%-0.05%
GBP0.11%0.03%-0.04%-0.06%-0.15%0.08%-0.03%
JPY0.17%0.07%0.04%-0.00%-0.09%0.10%0.03%
CAD0.16%0.07%0.06%0.00%-0.09%0.13%-0.00%
AUD0.26%0.17%0.15%0.09%0.09%0.22%0.14%
NZD0.00%-0.05%-0.08%-0.10%-0.13%-0.22%-0.10%
CHF0.14%0.05%0.03%-0.03%0.00%-0.14%0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/JPY steadies near 187.50 as improved oil prices weighs on Japanese Yen

April 15, 2026
  • EUR/JPY maintains its position as the Japanese Yen struggles on improving oil prices.
  • Oil prices gain as US–Iran talks face uncertainty after Trump said he isn’t considering extending the ceasefire.
  • The currency cross’s upside may be limited as the Euro weakens amid cautious sentiment following uncertainty over renewed Iran talks.

EUR/JPY moves little after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 187.30 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross maintains its gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure, reflecting Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle East oil imports, as oil prices pare daily losses. However, the JPY may receive support from speculation surrounding potential Japanese intervention.

Crude oil prices gain as US-Iran further talks come into question after US President Donald Trump said in an ABC News interview on Wednesday that he is not considering extending the ceasefire, adding that he does not believe it will be necessary. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do,” Trump remarked.

Moreover, the US military also announced a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, tightening supply conditions and casting doubt over the next round of negotiations with Iran.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers must remain vigilant to the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, warning that higher oil prices could weigh on Japan’s growth outlook.

The upside in the EUR/JPY cross may be limited as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) comes under pressure, with market sentiment turning slightly cautious after uncertainty emerged over renewed Iran talks.

However, The New York Post reported earlier that Trump had indicated talks could resume this week, while also opposing a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance pointed to “significant progress” in the initial round of Iran negotiations held in Pakistan, with follow-up discussions potentially expected within days.

The Euro (EUR) may find underlying support as markets continue to price in modest tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the April 30 meeting, along with expectations of two additional rate hikes this year. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank is well-positioned to manage developments related to Iran, while cautioning that it remains too early to dismiss the broader impact of the shock.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Defends 200-SMA support on H4; bulls seem hesitant near 159.00

April 15, 2026
  • USD/JPY edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through.
  • Hormuz risks undermine the JPY and lend support to spot prices amid a modest USD recovery.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

The USD/JPY pair once again shows some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and struggle to capitalize on the strength beyond the 159.00 mark.

Despite the optimism over Iran diplomacy, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the Japanese Yen (JPY). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) recovery from its lowest level since early March, turns out to be another factor lending some support to the USD/JPY pair. However, the optimism over continued US-Iran peace talks and diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) caps the upside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair retains a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 158.30-158.25 horizontal support. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is slightly negative and flat below the zero line, suggesting waning bearish pressure rather than a strong directional impulse for now. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at only modest downside momentum. This, in turn, warrants caution before positioning for further gains.

Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart near 158.76 might continue to protect the immediate downside. A sustained break would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper correction. As long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, dips are likely to attract buyers, though the lack of bullish conviction implies that the near-term trajectory will have to be defined on the basis of forthcoming price action rather than the existing mixed technical setup.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.07%0.01%0.13%0.06%-0.15%0.03%0.07%
EUR-0.07%-0.06%0.07%-0.02%-0.15%-0.04%-0.00%
GBP-0.01%0.06%0.11%0.09%-0.10%-0.01%0.05%
JPY-0.13%-0.07%-0.11%-0.06%-0.21%-0.12%-0.07%
CAD-0.06%0.02%-0.09%0.06%-0.13%-0.04%-0.01%
AUD0.15%0.15%0.10%0.21%0.13%0.10%0.14%
NZD-0.03%0.04%0.00%0.12%0.04%-0.10%0.04%
CHF-0.07%0.00%-0.05%0.07%0.00%-0.14%-0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

JPY bulls seem hesitant despite Iran diplomacy hopes; USD/JPY trades below 159.00

April 15, 2026
  • USD/JPY struggles to attract any meaningful buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday.
  • Hormuz risks continue to fuel economic worries, undermining the JPY and supporting the pair.
  • Iran diplomacy hopes and reduced Fed rate hike bets weigh on the USD, capping spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair is seen consolidating the previous day’s losses and oscillating in a narrow band below the 159.00 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, remain confined in a broader trading range held over the past month or so, warranting some caution before placing aggressive directional bets amid mixed cues.

Despite the optimism over Iran diplomacy, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been struggling to attract any meaningful buyers amid economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy blockade of Iranian ports took effect on Monday, threatening to further constrain already shuttered oil flows through the vital waterway. Given that Japan depends mostly on oil imports from the Middle East, the blockade fuels worries that the economy will come under substantial strain in the foreseeable future. This, in turn, undermines the JPY and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, hopes that US-Iran peace talks would continue remain supportive of the risk-on impulse, which is evident from the upbeat mood across the global equity markets. Adding to this, the softer US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Tuesday forced traders to further scale back bets for immediate interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed near its lowest level since early March, set the previous day. Furthermore, intervention fears might continue to offer some support to the JPY and contribute to capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair.

There isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from Japan or the US on Wednesday, leaving the currency pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Nevertheless, geopolitical developments would continue to infuse volatility in the financial markets and continue to produce some trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair. The fundamental backdrop, however, makes it prudent to wait for a sustained breakout through a short-term trading range before positioning for a firm near-term trajectory.

Currency Talk – GBP/USD, GBP/JPY USD/CHF

April 14, 2026

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur.
Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

GBPUSD
GBPUSD prices have been trending downward for quite some time, but on April 8, the 1:1 geometry was negated, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a larger correction or even a shift to an uptrend. Currently, the 1.3360–1.3355 zone should be treated as key support, where both the polarity of the negated downward geometry and the lower boundary of the local 1:1 upward pattern are located. As long as the price remains above this zone, the bullish sentiment prevails. Only a drop below 1.3355 could push the market back toward declines.

GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

GBPJPY
GBPJPY has been in an uptrend for some time now. The last two corrections were of identical magnitude, as indicated by the green rectangles, confirming the market’s rhythm in line with the Overbalance methodology. Currently, the price is trading near local highs. In the event of a correction, the key support level remains at 212.33, derived from the 1:1 ratio. At this point, there are no clear supply signals, so the base case scenario remains a continuation of the uptrend.

GBPJPY – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

USDCHF
The USDCHF pair rebounded from key resistance at the 0.8042 level, which stems from the largest corrective pattern within the downtrend that has been ongoing since January 2025. Additionally, the price fell below the 0.7902 level, which is the upper boundary of a smaller 1:1 pattern; according to the Overbalance methodology, this supports the scenario of further declines toward the January lows. To signal a shift to an uptrend, prices would need to break above the 0.8042 level; however, this is not the base case scenario at this time.

USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

JPY strengthens to 159.00 against USD; bulls lack conviction amid Hormuz risks

April 14, 2026
  • USD/JPY attracts some follow-through sellers as hopes for Iran diplomacy weigh on the US Dollar.
  • The uncertainty over the Fed’s future interest rate moves dragged the USD to a fresh low since March.
  • Economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz might cap the JPY upside.

The USD/JPY pair is seen extending the previous day’s modest pullback from the 159.85 region and drifting lower during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices drop to the 159.00 mark in the last hour, though the downside potential seems limited amid mixed fundamental cues.

Despite failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, investors seem hopeful that the door for Iran diplomacy remains open and that negotiations will continue. In fact, US Vice President JD Vance suggested that meaningful progress has been made even as talks have yet to deliver a breakthrough. The optimism, in turn, dents the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Adding to this, the uncertainty over inflationary pressures and future interest rate moves by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has dragged the USD to a fresh low since early March. Data released on Friday showed that inflation in the US surged by the most in nearly four years. This led investors to shift focus to potential rate hikes this year. However, traders are yet to completely abandon rate cut bets amid signs of a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) might struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid economic concerns stemming from external energy shocks due to the instability in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that the U.S. Navy blockade of the strategic waterway has officially started and vowed to destroy Iranian warships that get near. Iran responded with threats on all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Given that Japan depends mostly on oil imports from the Middle East, the uncertainty continues to fuel worries that the economy will come under substantial strain in the foreseeable future. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the JPY and help limit deeper losses for the USD/JPY pair. That said, speculations that Japanese authorities would step in to stem any further JPY weakness might cap the currency pair.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.02%-0.14%-0.03%0.21%0.14%-0.06%
EUR0.02%0.01%-0.11%0.02%0.23%0.15%-0.04%
GBP0.02%-0.01%-0.11%-0.00%0.21%0.15%-0.06%
JPY0.14%0.11%0.11%0.12%0.36%0.29%0.09%
CAD0.03%-0.02%0.00%-0.12%0.23%0.19%-0.03%
AUD-0.21%-0.23%-0.21%-0.36%-0.23%-0.06%-0.27%
NZD-0.14%-0.15%-0.15%-0.29%-0.19%0.06%-0.20%
CHF0.06%0.04%0.06%-0.09%0.03%0.27%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).