- GBP/USD gains some positive traction as reports of a 45-day US-Iran ceasefire undermine the USD.
- Persistent geopolitical uncertainties could limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the pair.
- The bearish technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for further appreciation.
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.3175 region during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. Spot prices climb back above the 1.3200 mark in the last hour, though any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair. However, the risk of a further escalation of the conflict remains in play amid US President Donald Trump’s fresh threat to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which continues to slope lower and cap the broader trend. Adding to this, the momentum has faded after last week’s rebound as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening just under the zero line and showing a marginally negative histogram, suggesting a lack of sustained buying pressure.
Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43, below the 50 midline, which reinforces a soft downside tone rather than an oversold extreme. Hence, any further move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at 1.3240, with a stronger cap near 1.3300, where recent swing highs converge, and short-term sellers have reappeared. A sustained move above the latter would be needed to challenge the declining 200-period SMA around 1.3370 and start easing the prevailing bearish bias.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent floor around 1.3190, where a break would open the way toward the lower 1.3150 region as the next bearish target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
