AUD gains support from US–Iran talks optimism

April 15, 2026
  • Australian Dollar appreciates amid reports of renewed US–Iran talks ahead of the two-week ceasefire expiring.
  • US Vice President Vance cited “significant progress” in initial Iran talks in Pakistan, with follow-up discussions likely within days.
  • RBA’s Hauser warned that the coming months will be challenging amid the energy crisis and high inflation.

AUD/USD gains ground for the third successive day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support from improved market sentiment due to the potential for further United States (US)-Iran talks.

The New York Post reported that US President Donald Trump signaled negotiations could resume this week, while also opposing a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance highlighted “significant progress” in the initial round of Iran talks held in Pakistan, with follow-up discussions potentially set to take place within days.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned on Tuesday during a fireside chat that the months ahead will be challenging for Australia amid the energy crisis driven by Middle East tensions and elevated inflation pressures. Hauser noted that the economy is struggling to absorb the shock due to persistent inflation and supply constraints, increasing the risk of a stagflation-like scenario.

On the data front, softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced easing inflation pressures, reducing the need for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates. Notably, the services component, closely watched by the Fed, stood out, as it excludes direct energy and tariff-related effects.

The US PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month (MoM), well below the 1.2% consensus, while core PPI printed at 0.1% MoM versus expectations of 0.6%. On an annual basis, US PPI increased 4% in March, missing the 4.6% forecast and rising from February’s 3.4%, while Core PPI held steady at 3.8% YoY, unchanged from the prior month.

USD/CAD gains ground above 1.3700 while outlook remains uncertain amid Iran optimism

April 15, 2026
  • USD/CAD edges up to near 1.3780; outlook remains worsened on hopes of US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
  • US President Trump expresses confidence that the war with Iran is close to over.
  • Investors await the announcement of another round of US-Iran talks.

The USD/CAD pair trades slightly higher to near 1.3780 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair gained a temporary ground after posting a fresh three-week low near 1.3730 on Tuesday; however, the outlook remains uncertain amid hopes that the United States (US) and Iran could reach a permanent ceasefire soon.

Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News, “I view it as very close to over,” when asked how long the war with Iran will continue.

Meanwhile, US Vice President (VP) JD Vance has also expressed confidence, in a public event, that both sides are working towards a deal, and talks are taking place via channels including Pakistan. Vance added, “Discussions have made tremendous progress, and the current ceasefire holds for a seventh consecutive day.”

During the press time, market sentiment remains risk-on amid hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire. S&P 500 futures hold onto Tuesday’s gains near 6,970. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 98.20, but is still close to its over six-week low of 97.97 posted on Tuesday.

US Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-1.61%-1.98%-0.40%-0.77%-2.19%-2.80%-2.03%
EUR1.61%-0.39%1.20%0.80%-0.63%-1.22%-0.45%
GBP1.98%0.39%1.62%1.23%-0.26%-0.83%-0.05%
JPY0.40%-1.20%-1.62%-0.38%-1.83%-2.53%-1.62%
CAD0.77%-0.80%-1.23%0.38%-1.36%-2.15%-1.23%
AUD2.19%0.63%0.26%1.83%1.36%-0.71%0.20%
NZD2.80%1.22%0.83%2.53%2.15%0.71%0.89%
CHF2.03%0.45%0.05%1.62%1.23%-0.20%-0.89%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Going forward, investors will focus on the outcome of the second round of US-Iran talks, whose date has not been confirmed, but will likely take place before the expiration of the two-week ceasefire on April 21, according to Reuters.

On the domestic front, traders do not expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates this year anymore amid optimism on the US-Iran truce.

Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

April 14, 2026

Facts:

  • EUR/USD is trading at 1.18 12:30 PM GMT on Tuesday, April 14, one hour ahead of the U.S March PPI release
  • The pair has managed to break above both the 200- and 100-session exponential moving averages (EMA200 and EMA100)
  • The daily RSI is above 65, while MACD remains supportive, and the pair is trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend that began on January 27

Recommendation:

  • Position: Short EUR/USD at market price
  • Take Profit: 1.16646
  • Stop Loss: 1.18881

View:

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has re-entered an upward trend, but the rebound—driven by growing optimism around a potential resolution of the U.S.–Iran conflict—has been unusually sharp. At the same time, conditions in global energy markets—on which Europe is more dependent than the U.S remain challenging. IEA President Fatih Birol indicated that normalization of supply from the Middle East could take up to two years due to the scale of infrastructure damage. As a result, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the late-January downtrend, further reinforced by prior price reactions (February consolidation), may act as a significant resistance level for EUR/USD. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is likely to persist, with Iran maintaining that the U.S. will not control this key trade route. In an escalation scenario, sentiment toward EUR/USD may gradually weaken, and even if the conflict ultimately resolves favorably for Europe, the pair could experience elevated volatility along the way. Also, multiple US macro data signals that price pressure is starting to rise across the economy, which may lead to still quite ‘hawkish’ Fed stance ahead of the summer. Technically, the daily RSI has risen to 65, while the hourly RSI stands at 79.1—both suggesting overbought conditions. Given this setup, a short position is favored, targeting 1.16646 with a protective stop at 1.18881. M

Source: xStation5

Currency Talk – GBP/USD, GBP/JPY USD/CHF

April 14, 2026

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur.
Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

GBPUSD
GBPUSD prices have been trending downward for quite some time, but on April 8, the 1:1 geometry was negated, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a larger correction or even a shift to an uptrend. Currently, the 1.3360–1.3355 zone should be treated as key support, where both the polarity of the negated downward geometry and the lower boundary of the local 1:1 upward pattern are located. As long as the price remains above this zone, the bullish sentiment prevails. Only a drop below 1.3355 could push the market back toward declines.

GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

GBPJPY
GBPJPY has been in an uptrend for some time now. The last two corrections were of identical magnitude, as indicated by the green rectangles, confirming the market’s rhythm in line with the Overbalance methodology. Currently, the price is trading near local highs. In the event of a correction, the key support level remains at 212.33, derived from the 1:1 ratio. At this point, there are no clear supply signals, so the base case scenario remains a continuation of the uptrend.

GBPJPY – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

USDCHF
The USDCHF pair rebounded from key resistance at the 0.8042 level, which stems from the largest corrective pattern within the downtrend that has been ongoing since January 2025. Additionally, the price fell below the 0.7902 level, which is the upper boundary of a smaller 1:1 pattern; according to the Overbalance methodology, this supports the scenario of further declines toward the January lows. To signal a shift to an uptrend, prices would need to break above the 0.8042 level; however, this is not the base case scenario at this time.

USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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Australian Dollar edges lower despite reinforced hawkish RBA bias

April 14, 2026
  • Australian Dollar inches lower after posting 0.42% gains in the previous day.
  • The AUD may gain support from a reinforced hawkish RBA stance amid persistent energy-driven inflation pressures.
  • US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks mildly support risk sentiment, signaling diplomacy and potential US–Iran de-escalation.

AUD/USD retreats after posting modest gains in the previous session, trading around 0.7090 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair could regain traction as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may draw support from a reinforced hawkish bias by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), driven by persistent energy-led inflation pressures.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cautioned that Australia is navigating a difficult macroeconomic environment, where elevated inflation and constrained supply capacity are increasing the risk of a stagflation-like scenario if energy shocks continue.

Hauser noted that the central bank’s “nightmare” scenario would involve inflation rising alongside weakening economic activity, a combination that would make policy decisions significantly more complex.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure as comments from US Vice President JD Vance appear mildly supportive of risk sentiment, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. However, the absence of tangible progress continues to keep the oil-related risk premium elevated.

In an interview with Fox News, Vance adopted a cautiously optimistic tone regarding negotiations with Iran, indicating that meaningful progress has been made despite the absence of a breakthrough. He stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.

Although the talks did not yield a formal agreement, Vance stressed that the outcome should not be viewed as a failure, highlighting that Iranian representatives showed some willingness to move closer to US positions, though not enough to finalize a deal.

EUR/USD climbs to 1.1765-1.1770, highest since March as Iran diplomacy hopes undermine USD

April 14, 2026
  • EUR/USD scales higher for the eighth straight day as the USD slides to a fresh low since early March.
  • Hopes for Iran diplomacy and Fed rate uncertainty undermine the USD’s reserve currency status.
  • Hormuz risks could keep a lid on the market optimism, limiting USD losses and capping spot prices.

The EUR/USD pair is seen building on the previous day’s strong intraday move up of over 100 pips and gaining some follow-through traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. This marks the eighth straight day of a positive move and lifts spot prices to a fresh high since early March, around the 1.1765-1.1770 region in the last hour.

Despite failed peace talks over the weekend, investors continue to move towards riskier assets amid hopes that the door for Iran diplomacy remains open. In fact, US Vice President JD Vance struck a cautiously optimistic tone on negotiations with Iran and suggested that meaningful progress has been made even as talks have yet to deliver a breakthrough. This, in turn, undermines the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Apart from this, the uncertainty over future interest rate moves by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps the USD depressed near its lowest level since early March. That said, the instability surrounding shipping traffic from the Strait of Hormuz might keep a lid on the optimism and limit deeper USD losses. US President Donald Trump said that the U.S. Navy blockade of the strategic waterway has officially started and vowed to destroy Iranian warships that get near the blockade.

Iran responded with threats on all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, keeping geopolitical risks in play. Adding to this, fears that the ceasefire that is currently holding could collapse, and that the war could resume, might lend some support to the USD and hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair. The fundamental backdrop, however, backs the case for an extension of the pair’s recent uptrend from the late March swing low.

JPY strengthens to 159.00 against USD; bulls lack conviction amid Hormuz risks

April 14, 2026
  • USD/JPY attracts some follow-through sellers as hopes for Iran diplomacy weigh on the US Dollar.
  • The uncertainty over the Fed’s future interest rate moves dragged the USD to a fresh low since March.
  • Economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz might cap the JPY upside.

The USD/JPY pair is seen extending the previous day’s modest pullback from the 159.85 region and drifting lower during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices drop to the 159.00 mark in the last hour, though the downside potential seems limited amid mixed fundamental cues.

Despite failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, investors seem hopeful that the door for Iran diplomacy remains open and that negotiations will continue. In fact, US Vice President JD Vance suggested that meaningful progress has been made even as talks have yet to deliver a breakthrough. The optimism, in turn, dents the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Adding to this, the uncertainty over inflationary pressures and future interest rate moves by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has dragged the USD to a fresh low since early March. Data released on Friday showed that inflation in the US surged by the most in nearly four years. This led investors to shift focus to potential rate hikes this year. However, traders are yet to completely abandon rate cut bets amid signs of a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) might struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid economic concerns stemming from external energy shocks due to the instability in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that the U.S. Navy blockade of the strategic waterway has officially started and vowed to destroy Iranian warships that get near. Iran responded with threats on all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Given that Japan depends mostly on oil imports from the Middle East, the uncertainty continues to fuel worries that the economy will come under substantial strain in the foreseeable future. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the JPY and help limit deeper losses for the USD/JPY pair. That said, speculations that Japanese authorities would step in to stem any further JPY weakness might cap the currency pair.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.02%-0.14%-0.03%0.21%0.14%-0.06%
EUR0.02%0.01%-0.11%0.02%0.23%0.15%-0.04%
GBP0.02%-0.01%-0.11%-0.00%0.21%0.15%-0.06%
JPY0.14%0.11%0.11%0.12%0.36%0.29%0.09%
CAD0.03%-0.02%0.00%-0.12%0.23%0.19%-0.03%
AUD-0.21%-0.23%-0.21%-0.36%-0.23%-0.06%-0.27%
NZD-0.14%-0.15%-0.15%-0.29%-0.19%0.06%-0.20%
CHF0.06%0.04%0.06%-0.09%0.03%0.27%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Canadian Dollar remains stronger as risk-on mood weighs on US Dollar

April 14, 2026
  • USD/CAD struggles as reports suggest further US–Iran talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire.
  • President Trump said Tehran initiated contact, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled willingness for lawful dialogue.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government on Monday.

USD/CAD remains subdued for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid eased risk aversion following reports that the United States (US) and Iran may hold further talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce ends.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. Vance stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.

The Greenback weakens as markets scale back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, with easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pressured oil prices.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran-related energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations, adding he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target within a year.

The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face challenges amid lower oil prices, given the fact that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States. Crude oil prices fall as supply concerns ease after reports of US-Iran further talks.

In Canada, CBC News reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government on Monday, strengthening his ability to advance legislation aimed at navigating a more divided geopolitical landscape. The victory gives Carney’s Liberals 172 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.