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AUD declines due to fading optimism surrounding US-Iran ceasefire

April 9, 2026

AUD/USD weakens as the Australian Dollar struggles amid fading optimism, with the Iran 10-point deal lacking full commitment.
Markets now expect an RBA rate hike in May, with rates projected to reach 4.61% by year-end.
Iran says recent actions violate the ceasefire, calling further talks with the US unreasonable.

AUD/USD snaps a three-day winning streak, trading near 0.7030 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The risk-sensitive pair weakens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) comes under pressure amid fading optimism, with reports suggesting the 10-point framework lacks full commitment from both sides, leaving the deal fragile and incomplete.

However, the Middle East conflict, now in its second month, has lifted energy prices and heightened inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that global central banks may keep policy tighter for longer.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised rates by 50 basis points to 4.10% amid persistently high inflation. Markets now anticipate another hike in May, with rates seen reaching 4.61% by year-end.

According to Reuters, Iranian officials said recent developments violate the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to proceed with talks for a permanent agreement with the United States (US).

The warning from Iran’s lead negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, underscores ongoing regional volatility. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also claimed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had halted after Israel expanded strikes in Lebanon.

Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due Friday. Headline inflation is expected to rise 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.4%, driven by higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict.

CAD slips as USD safe-haven bid offsets oil rebound

April 9, 2026

USD/CAD rises as the US Dollar gains ground on safe-haven demand amid fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism.
Fed March Meeting Minutes show a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging risks are becoming more balanced.
The commodity-linked CAD may gain as oil rebounds after the tanker traffic halt in the Strait of Hormuz.

USD/CAD gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.3860 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.

The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting, released on Wednesday, suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that risks are becoming more balanced. Policymakers broadly supported holding rates steady, with nearly all participants backing no change, and many viewing policy as already near a neutral range, implying a high bar for further tightening.

However, the upside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may find support from a rebound in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $91.50 at the time of writing. Crude oil prices rise after Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Iranian officials said recent developments breach the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to continue talks for a permanent deal with the United States. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three key clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.” Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance signaled that the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.

NZD/USD gathers strength above 0.5800 on RBNZ hawkish hold

April 9, 2026

NZD/USD edges higher to around 0.5830 in Thursday’s early European session.
RBNZ’s Breman said the country could see stronger growth if the Middle East conflict ends soon.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker stated that the US had breached the terms of the ceasefire deal.

The NZD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.5830 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following a hawkish pause from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

As widely expected, New Zealand’s central bank decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its April policy meeting on Wednesday. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said during the press conference that higher oil prices are reducing household purchasing power and business profit margins, leading to a cautious “wait and see” stance.

On Thursday, Breman said that the domestic economy could see stronger growth this year if there was a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. She further stated that the previous rate cuts were still providing some stimulus.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East could provide some support to the Greenback as a safe-haven currency. Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated on Wednesday that the US had breached the terms of the ceasefire deal. His remarks came after Israel launched a large-scale campaign across Lebanon, killing over 250 people as a result.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the ceasefire between the US and Iran does not include operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

GBP/USD Price – Strives to hold key 20-day EMA

April 9, 2026

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3400 as Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon renew Middle East war uncertainty.
Iran’s Qalibaf warns that the US has violated three clauses of the 10-point proposal.
Investors await the US CPI data for March, which will be released on Friday.

The Pound Sterling trades in a tight range around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates as investors doubt over the sustainability of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran on early Wednesday in the wake of continued attacks by Israel on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In response, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that it would be “unreasonable” to continue permanent ceasefire talks with the US as it has violated three clauses of the 10-point proposal so far.

This has renewed fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East, weighing on risk-sensitive assets. As of writing, S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% to near 6,770. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.05.

On the macro front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to show that the headline CPI grew at a faster pace of 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the prior reading of 2.4%.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades sideways around 1.3400 in Thursday’s Asian session. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3325, suggesting downside attempts would be absorbed near that dynamic floor.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 leans slightly positive, hinting that buyers retain the near-term initiative while momentum improves gradually.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3325, where a break would weaken the constructive tone and expose a deeper pullback. With no nearby technical resistances from the provided dataset, further gains would likely meet selling interest at prior swing highs on the broader chart, though the current structure leaves the path of least resistance tilted to the upside as long as price holds above the 1.3325 area.

Trade of The Day – CHF/JPY

April 8, 2026

Facts:
The pair reached the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 199.45
Main trend on the pair remains upward from March 2025

Recommendation:
Trade: Long position on CHFJPY at market price
Target: 203.68, 205.65
Stop: 197.58

Opinion: Looking at CHFJPY chart, one can observe that the price bounced off the key technical support today. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (red rectangles) as well as 100-period moving average from D1 interval. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support at 199.45, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on CHFJPY at market price with two targets: 203.68 and 205.65. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 197.58 Source: xStation5

War-Related Shifts in The Forex Market – USD Plumets, AUD, NDZ and CHF Rebound

April 8, 2026

The two-week suspension of U.S. military operations against Iran triggered a sharp shake-up in the FX market today, reversing much of the movement seen in recent weeks. Across a broad range of currencies, cyclical currencies are the most actively bought, with the NZD, SEK, and ZAR leading the way, while the USD and CAD are at the very bottom of the strength rankings. Pairs such as NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and GBPUSD are rebounding sharply, benefiting from the simultaneous rise in U.S. index futures and the steep sell-off in oil following the largest one-day drop in crude prices in years. The dollar index is sliding by about 0.9%, which, amid a sharp rebound in risk appetite on the stock markets, is weakening demand for safe-haven assets and pushing defensive positions in the USD—and to some extent in the JPY—to the sidelines.

Today’s reaction follows the pattern seen in recent weeks, in which shifts in the intensity of the conflict with Iran quickly translate into movements among the dollar, the yen, oil, and gold, increasing volatility in major currency pairs. Above is a heatmap of volatility in the FX market. Source: xStation

However, the biggest beneficiary of today’s combination of a hawkish central bank and global de-escalation remains the kiwi: following the RBNZ’s decision, NZD/USD rose temporarily by as much as 2% to around 0.5844, and is currently holding gains of around 1.7% at an exchange rate of approximately 0.5824. Investors interpreted the bank’s statement as a “hawkish pause”—the RBNZ clearly signaled its readiness for rapid rate hikes if inflation spreads beyond the energy sector and begins to affect wages and price expectations. At the same time, the bank emphasized that the supply shock linked to the earlier rise in oil prices is temporary, and that weaker domestic demand and rising spare capacity limit the risk of a second round of inflation. In this environment, the NZD benefits in two ways—as a currency with a relatively high interest rate premium and as a classic representative of the risk-on basket, which is now returning to favor following the suspension of U.S.-Iran hostilities. If the window for peace talks in Islamabad does not close too abruptly, the NZD’s current edge over the USD may hold, though ongoing instability in the region and the risk of a sudden escalation still call for caution when extending positions.

The NZDUSD pair tested an important long-term control point marked by the 200-day EMA today. The retest has so far proved unsuccessful.

Source: xStation

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NZD/USD – Hawkish RBNZ Decision And TACO Trade Support The NZD

April 8, 2026

NZDUSD gained as much as 2.00% following the RBNZ decision, supported both by the more hawkish tone of the central bank and the global move after the de-escalation of US–Iran tensions. The kiwi reached around 0.5844 (currently 0.5824). Investors interpreted the decision as a hawkish pause. The RBNZ emphasized that if inflationary pressure spreads beyond energy and begins to affect wages, pricing behavior, or inflation expectations, decisive and rapid rate hikes may be necessary.

The core message from the RBNZ is that the inflation outlook has worsened, even if growth conditions have not improved. The bank indicated that the conflict in the Middle East has significantly altered the outlook through supply chain disruptions and rising oil and fuel prices, which will translate into higher inflation in the short term. Official forecasts point to inflation at 3.0% in March and 4.2% in June, above the 1–3% target range, with key transmission channels including transport, airfares, and food.

At the same time, the RBNZ does not want to overreact to what may be a temporary supply shock. The bank stressed that the situation differs from 2022, as demand in the economy is currently much weaker and spare capacity should limit second-round inflation effects. This is important because domestic activity remains weak: GDP growth is minimal, financial conditions have tightened, and mortgage rates have increased. In other words, the RBNZ faces a difficult trade-off between rising inflation and a still fragile recovery.

Therefore, the decision was perceived as hawkish despite no rate hike. The committee considered more preemptive action to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored but ultimately chose to wait for more data. There are also growing expectations that July could be the first possible timing for rate hikes if inflation pressures persist.

The market backdrop further strengthened the NZD move. The two-week US–Iran ceasefire triggered a strong risk-on move — US500 futures rose around 2.5%, oil prices declined, and the dollar weakened. This supported cyclical currencies, with the NZD standing out thanks to an additional domestic catalyst. At the time of writing, NZDUSD is gaining 1.67%.

JPY surges against US Dollar as Trump confirms two-week ceasefire

April 8, 2026

The Japanese Yen outperforms the US Dollar on the US-Iran temporary ceasefire.
Iran said that negotiations on the 10-point proposal with the US will begin on April 10.
A sharp decline in the oil price has improved the appeal of the Japanese Yen.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair sliding 0.75% to near 158.40 during the Asian trading session. The pair faces intense selling pressure as demand for safe-haven assets has diminished, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.68%	-0.82%	-0.76%	-0.34%	-1.15%	-1.62%	-0.95%
EUR	0.68%		-0.15%	-0.09%	0.32%	-0.47%	-0.98%	-0.29%
GBP	0.82%	0.15%		0.04%	0.49%	-0.30%	-0.80%	-0.14%
JPY	0.76%	0.09%	-0.04%		0.42%	-0.37%	-0.85%	-0.19%
CAD	0.34%	-0.32%	-0.49%	-0.42%		-0.79%	-1.26%	-0.62%
AUD	1.15%	0.47%	0.30%	0.37%	0.79%		-0.49%	0.17%
NZD	1.62%	0.98%	0.80%	0.85%	1.26%	0.49%		0.66%
CHF	0.95%	0.29%	0.14%	0.19%	0.62%	-0.17%	-0.66%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.54% to near 99.00. S&P 500 futures rally almost 2.5% to near 6,777, signifying upbeat market sentiment.

Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced a suspension of planned attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure for two weeks, through a post on Truth.Social, as Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical gateway to almost 20% of global oil supply. Trump added, “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

Meanwhile, Iranian officials have also acknowledged the Hormuz reopening and have stated that negotiations on the 10-point proposal with the US will begin on April 10 in Islamabad. Tehran clarified that the 10-point proposal includes controlled transit through the Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending the war against Iran and allied groups, and withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases.

The temporary ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran has resulted in a sharp decline in the WTI Oil price, which is down over 10% around $90.00. Lower oil prices bode well for currencies from economies like Japan, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be published later in the day.