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NZD/USD rebounds from four-month low; retakes 0.5700 as ceasefire talks weigh on USD

April 6, 2026

NZD/USD rebounds after retesting a four-month trough during the Asian session on Monday.
Reports of a push for a US-Iran ceasefire weigh on the USD and lend some support to spot prices.
Geopolitical risks remain in play, warranting caution before positioning for any further recovery.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.5680 region, or over a four-month trough retested during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. Spot prices currently trade just above the 0.5700 mark, up nearly 0.25% for the day, though the upside potential seems limited.

Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. The headlines offer a temporary respite to the fragile global risk sentiment and undermine the US Dollar’s (USD) global reserve currency status, which turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the NZD/USD pair. Investors, however, remain on edge amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if Tehran does not meet his deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. Iran, on the other hand, outlined a new condition and said that the transit through the strategic waterway could resume if part of the revenue is allocated to compensate Iran for war-related damages. Moreover, chances of a deal over the next 48 hours remain low.

Meanwhile, investors remain worried that the war-driven surge in energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. In fact, traders are now pricing in a greater probability that the Fed will raise borrowing costs in 2026, which could act as a tailwind for the USD. This might cap the upside for the NZD/USD pair and warrants some caution for bullish traders.

Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Services PMI for some impetus later during the North American session amid thin liquidity on the back of the Easter Monday Holiday in many global financial markets. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any further appreciating move.

EUR/USD inches higher above 1.1500 amid hopes on US-Iran ceasefire talks

April 6, 2026

EUR/USD trades with mild gains around 1.1520 in Monday’s early European session.
The US and Iran explore a 45-day ceasefire ahead of the deadline.
ECB policymakers emphasized that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the target.

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.1520 during the early European session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Greenback amid optimism about the US-Iran ceasefire. The US March ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report is due later on Monday.

Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing Axios, that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. The source said that the chances of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours are low. Earlier, US President Donald Trump extended his deadline by 20 hours, posting a new deadline of Tuesday at 8:00 pm EST (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).

Data on Friday suggested US labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk. “Our concern is that with the Middle East conflict showing little sign of coming to an imminent conclusion, an overlay of heightened geopolitical, economic and market angst is not going to incentivise business to suddenly start hiring now,” said ING economist James Knightley.

Hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers could support the shared currency. The ECB has maintained a firm commitment to combating inflation. President Christine Lagarde and other Governing Council members have delivered consistent messages, emphasizing that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

GBP/USD Retakes 1.3200; bearish bias persists amid geopolitical risks

April 6, 2026

GBP/USD gains some positive traction as reports of a 45-day US-Iran ceasefire undermine the USD.
Persistent geopolitical uncertainties could limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the pair.
The bearish technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for further appreciation.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.3175 region during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. Spot prices climb back above the 1.3200 mark in the last hour, though any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair. However, the risk of a further escalation of the conflict remains in play amid US President Donald Trump’s fresh threat to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which continues to slope lower and cap the broader trend. Adding to this, the momentum has faded after last week’s rebound as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening just under the zero line and showing a marginally negative histogram, suggesting a lack of sustained buying pressure.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43, below the 50 midline, which reinforces a soft downside tone rather than an oversold extreme. Hence, any further move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at 1.3240, with a stronger cap near 1.3300, where recent swing highs converge, and short-term sellers have reappeared. A sustained move above the latter would be needed to challenge the declining 200-period SMA around 1.3370 and start easing the prevailing bearish bias.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent floor around 1.3190, where a break would open the way toward the lower 1.3150 region as the next bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

USD/CHF holds gains above 0.8000 despite reports of US-Iran ceasefire talks

April 6, 2026

USD/CHF rose as the US Dollar gained on increased safe-haven demand driven by escalating Middle East tensions.
Greenback’s upside may be limited amid reports of the US, Iran, and mediators discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire.
Swiss annual inflation remained close to the SNB’s lower target bound, reducing pressure for policy adjustments.

USD/CHF extends its winning streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.8010 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) gained ground amid increased safe-haven demand on heightened uncertainty in the Middle East.

However, the Greenback’s upside may be limited after reports that the United States (US), Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. Unnamed sources see low chances of a deal being reached within the next 48 hours, a report from Axios cited by Bloomberg.

Earlier, President Trump set a new Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while escalating threats against its power plants and other civilian infrastructure. Iranian officials warned of reciprocal retaliation, targeting US-linked infrastructure, and stated the strait would remain closed until compensation for war-related damages is secured.

Surging energy prices heighten speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may postpone rate cuts and could even raise borrowing costs later this year if inflationary pressures persist. Market participants are now looking ahead to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for clearer guidance on the central bank’s policy trajectory.

The latest domestic inflation figures eased pressure on the Swiss National Bank to adjust policy. Annual inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year (YoY) in March, the highest in a year, but remains near the lower bound of the SNB’s 0–2% target.

CAD remains depressed against a firmer USD; bullish Oil prices limit losses

April 6, 2026

USD/CAD trades with a positive bias for the third straight day, though it lacks bullish conviction.
Rising geopolitical tensions and Fed rate hike bets continue to support the USD and spot prices.
Elevated Crude Oil prices underpin the Loonie and hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets.

The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers for the third consecutive day on Monday and trades just below mid-1.3900s during the Asian session, well within striking distance of a nearly four-month high set last week amid a firmer US Dollar (USD). The uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction as elevated Crude Oil prices could underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap gains for spot prices.

US President Donald Trump threatened to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday, while Iran introduced new conditions for reopening the strategic waterway. This raises the risk of a further escalation of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and continues to underpin the USD’s status as the global reserve currency. Adding to this, rising bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) turn out to be another factor supporting the USD and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

The closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed on Friday that the US economy added 178K new jobs in March, reversing the previous month’s revised net loss of 133K. Adding to this, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% last month. This comes on top of inflation fears stemming from the war-driven surge in Crude Oil prices and removes any near-term pressure on the Fed to cut rates, which remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. The outlook, in turn, continues to support the USD and the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, supply disruption worries lift Crude Oil prices to a nearly four-week top. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and warrants some caution before positioning for any further move higher for the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.3900 mark, or the year-to-date high, before positioning for an extension of a nearly one-month-old uptrend from the 1.3525 region, or the March monthly swing low.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground above 110.00 as mild bullish bias persists

April 6, 2026

AUD/JPY drifts higher to around 110.20 in Monday’s Asian session.
The cross keeps a mildly bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid neutral RSI momentum.
The first upside barrier emerges at 111.25; initial support is located at 110.00.

The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 110.20 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

However, the upside for the cross might be limited as escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven demand for the JPY. Iran’s central military command on Monday warned of far more “devastating and widespread” retaliation if its adversaries hit civilian targets. The statement came after US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran didn’t make a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 107.35, extending the broader uptrend despite the latest pullback. The RSI eases to the midline, suggesting that further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Immediate resistance emerges near the Bollinger middle band of 111.25. Above that, the next upside reference aligns near the March 19 high of 112.61, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 113.65. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 110.00 psychological level. A deeper setback would target the lower limit of the Bollinger Band near 108.75, followed by the 100-day EMA around 107.35.

EUR/JPY remains below 184.00 as traders price in BoJ rate hike odds

April 6, 2026

EUR/JPY may decline further as Japanese Yen strengthens on expectations the BoJ will tighten policy in April.
The International Monetary Fund praised Japan’s economic resilience, backing gradual stimulus withdrawal.
ECB’s Lagarde and policymakers reiterated that policy will stay restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

EUR/JPY moves little after registering modest losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross may extend its decline as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy in April to counter rising inflation driven by higher energy costs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed the BoJ’s current path of rate hikes. Following a policy consultation on Friday, the IMF praised Japan’s economic resilience and supported a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus, with inflation projected to converge toward the 2% target by 2027.

However, the JPY faced pressure as oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump escalated threats against Iran. Japan remains particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions due to its heavy reliance on Middle East oil imports.

Trump issued a new deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while intensifying threats against its power plants and civilian infrastructure. Iranian officials warned of reciprocal retaliation, targeting US-linked infrastructure, and stated the strait would stay closed until war damages are compensated.

Meanwhile, downside in the EUR/JPY cross may be limited as the Euro (EUR) finds support from the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde and other policymakers have reiterated that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

USD/JPY Continues to hold 20-day EMA amid fears of Middle East war escalation

April 6, 2026

USD/JPY edges down to near 159.55 as the US Dollar ticks lower.
US President Trump promises an assault on Iran if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March.

The USD/JPY pair trades marginally down at around 159.55 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The pair shows a subdued performance as the US Dollar (USD) ticks lower, while broadly remaining firm due to threats from United States (US) President Donald Trump that he will destroy Iranian infrastructure if it doesn’t agree to a deal.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.15.

Over the weekend, US President Trump promised “hell” for Iran’s power plants and bridges, through a post on Truth.Social, if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline, which is Tuesday, April 7, at 9:00 PM Eastern time.

On the macro front, investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March, which will be released at 14:00 GMT. The Services PMI is expected to arrive lower at 55.0 from 56.1 in February.

Meanwhile, fears of escalating Middle East war have also improved the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen (JPY).

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY ticks lower at around 159.55 as of writing. However, the near-term bias is bullish as price holds within an ascending channel and consolidates beneath the upper boundary. The pair trades above the 20-day exponential moving average around 158.90, which underpins the advance and aligns with the pattern of higher lows along the channel floor near 158.10.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating positive, though not extreme, momentum that supports ongoing upside pressure while the channel structure is respected.

Initial resistance emerges at 160.45, the recent swing high, with the channel top near 161.00 as the next barrier to extended gains. A clear break above the latter would open the way toward higher psychological levels beyond 162.00. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 158.90, ahead of the channel base around 158.10, which defines the lower boundary of the current uptrend. A daily close below 158.10 would weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper retracement levels toward the mid-157.00s.