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GBP/USD climbs above 1.3240 as Iran hopes dent US Dollar

  • GBP/USD rises as ceasefire speculation weighs on the US Dollar.
  • Softer US services data added pressure on the Greenback.
  • Traders now await US inflation, jobless claims and Fed minutes.

The British Pound (GBP) advances by over 0.40% on Monday as US President Donald Trump said the Tuesday deadline he has set for Iran to make a deal is final, while rumors of a possible de-escalation weighed on the US Dollar (USD). GBP/USD trades around the 1.3240 figure at the time of writing.

Sterling gains as ceasefire rumors lift mood, soften Greenback

Risk appetite improved on Monday after Axios reported that US and Israeli officials, along with regional mediators, are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could be extended if needed. Investors cheered the news, as depicted by US equities posting gains of 0.15% to 0.52%.

Data from the US showed that business activity deteriorated, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), as the Services PMI in March slipped from 56.1 to 54, below economists’ forecasts of 55. The Prices Paid sub-component of the PMI rose to its highest level since October 2022, coming at 70.7, sparked by the rise of oil and fuel costs, commented Steve Miller, the Chair of the ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee.

Last week, strong US jobs data posted the largest job gains in 15 months and a dip in the Unemployment Rate. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 178K in March, exceeding estimates of 60K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.

Consequently, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates are none, according to data from Prime Market Terminal, which reflects that the Fed funds rate will remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range, steady in 2026.

Fed interest rate probabilities

Source: Prime Market Terminal

Traders’ eyes will be on the release of US inflation figures, jobless claims, and the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3239. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the downward-sloping resistance trend line from 1.3869 and trades under the clustered simple moving averages near 1.3500, which now cap the upside. The persistent rejection along that descending line, combined with price pressure below the 50–100–200-day group, signals sellers retaining control, even as the longer-term rising support trend line from 1.3035 still prevents a steeper breakdown.

Initial resistance is now at 1.3320, where recent rebounds have stalled beneath the descending trend line, followed by 1.3435 and the moving-average zone around 1.35. A daily close above that 1.35 area would be needed to dilute the current bearish tone and reopen 1.3600. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3187, with 1.3130 and the rising trend line from 1.3035 below; a clean break under that trend support would confirm a deeper bearish extension toward 1.3050.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.23%-0.28%0.02%-0.22%-0.33%-0.45%-0.25%
EUR0.23%-0.03%0.24%0.00%-0.13%-0.25%-0.05%
GBP0.28%0.03%0.25%0.00%-0.09%-0.22%0.00%
JPY-0.02%-0.24%-0.25%-0.23%-0.36%-0.49%-0.28%
CAD0.22%-0.00%-0.01%0.23%-0.10%-0.23%-0.02%
AUD0.33%0.13%0.09%0.36%0.10%-0.14%0.09%
NZD0.45%0.25%0.22%0.49%0.23%0.14%0.23%
CHF0.25%0.05%-0.01%0.28%0.02%-0.09%-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CAD edges lower as shifting US-Iran headlines keep markets cautious

  • USD/CAD softens as the US Dollar weakens, allowing the Canadian Dollar to snap a two-day losing streak.
  • Shifting geopolitical headlines around the US-Iran war keep sentiment fragile, limiting downside in the US Dollar.
  • Focus also on upcoming US inflation data and Canada employment figures later this week.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as traders react to evolving geopolitical developments in the US-Iran war. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.1315, hovering near four-month highs.

Risk appetite improved earlier in the Asian session following reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is weighing modestly on the Greenback. However, the US Dollar pared some of its losses as conflicting headlines kept uncertainty elevated and limited expectations of a near-term resolution.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.98 after rebounding from an intraday low near 99.76.

Iran has called for a permanent end to the war in response to the US proposal, according to IRNA, while also rejecting a ceasefire framework conveyed via Pakistan. Meanwhile, a US official cited by Axios said Iran submitted a 10-point response to the proposal, describing it as “maximalist” and noting that it remains unclear whether it would allow progress toward a diplomatic solution.

This suggests the conflict could escalate further, with a deal appearing unlikely ahead of the deadline set by US President Donald Trump, who has warned of potential strikes on power plants and other civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

Beyond immediate geopolitical risks, the broader economic fallout from the war is also coming into focus. Rising Oil prices are adding to inflation pressure while raising concerns about global economic growth, a combination that is complicating the outlook for both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC).

On the data front, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March came in at 54, down from 56.1 in February and below expectations of 55.

Looking ahead this week, market attention will turn to inflation data in the US, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February. In Canada, the March employment data will also be in focus.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.22%-0.26%0.02%-0.23%-0.31%-0.43%-0.24%
EUR0.22%-0.02%0.22%-0.01%-0.11%-0.23%-0.04%
GBP0.26%0.02%0.23%-0.01%-0.09%-0.25%-0.01%
JPY-0.02%-0.22%-0.23%-0.23%-0.34%-0.47%-0.28%
CAD0.23%0.01%0.01%0.23%-0.08%-0.21%-0.02%
AUD0.31%0.11%0.09%0.34%0.08%-0.14%0.07%
NZD0.43%0.23%0.25%0.47%0.21%0.14%0.22%
CHF0.24%0.04%0.00%0.28%0.02%-0.07%-0.22%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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GBP/JPY Price Analysis – Pound recovery hits resistance at 211.45

  • GBP/JPY picks up on risk appetite but remains capped below 211.45.
  • Hopes of a peace deal in Iran have triggered a moderate sentiment improvement.
  • Yen downside attempts remain limited, as intervention risks loom.

The Pound (GBP) is trading higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, favoured by a moderate optimism amid news of a peace plan to end the war in Iran. The pair, however, remains capped below the 211.45 resistance area so far, although technical indicators are popping up into bullish territory.

News that  Iran and the US have received the framework of a plan for a 45-day ceasefire that might end the hostilities immediately and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been welcomed by the market. Investors have responded by selling safe-haven assets like the US Dollar for the benefit of riskier-perceived assets like the Pound.

Nevertheless, traders are wary of placing significant Yen shorts. The USD/JPY remains relatively close to 160.00 a level which, according to market speculation, might unleash an intervention by Tokyo authorities to stem undesired JPY weakness.

Chart Analysis GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY shows a mildly bullish trend, after bouncing at 209.64 lows in late March, with the highest lows posted last week. A bullish engulfing candle in the daily chart might strengthen the case of a deeper correction if the pair closes the day beyond 211.45.

Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart show an improved momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizing just above the 50 mark and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remaining in positive territory.

Price action suggests that we might be in the C-D leg of a Gartley pattern, targeting beyond the mentioned 211.45 resistance area to the area between the March 24 and 27 lows, at 212.30, and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late-March sell-off, at 212.55.

To the downside, immediate support is the April 2 low, at 210.35, ahead of the mentioned March 31 low, at 209.64.

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EUR/GBP – Supported by converging SMAs but capped below 0.8750

  • EUR/GBP edges lower as diplomatic efforts to end the US–Iran war lift sentiment and support risk-sensitive currencies.
  • GBP shows relative strength against the Euro, keeping the cross under pressure near recent highs.
  • Technically, EUR/GBP maintains a mildly bullish bias while holding above key moving averages, with RSI and MACD in positive territory.

EUR/GBP trades with a negative bias on Monday as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war lift market sentiment and support risk-sensitive currencies, with the British Pound (GBP) relatively outperforming the Euro (EUR).

At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8720, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and remains confined near the upper end of last week’s range.

According to Axios, the United States and Iran, along with regional mediators, are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could help end the war. Separately, Reuters reported that both sides have received a proposal for a two-step deal, starting with a ceasefire followed by broader negotiations, which could come into effect as early as Monday and include reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP shows a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot holds just above the flat 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.8686, while the 100-day SMA around 0.8709 and the 200-day SMA near 0.8701 converge just below current levels, forming a tentative support cluster that could cap downside attempts.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 signals firm but not stretched upside momentum, consistent with a grind higher rather than a sharp breakout. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line in marginally positive territory, and the modestly positive histogram reinforces a controlled bullish tone rather than an aggressive trend.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.8750, and a break above this level would strengthen the bullish case, opening the door toward the March swing high at 0.8789, close to the 0.8800 psychological mark.

On the downside, initial support is seen in the 0.8686-0.8708 moving average cluster. A break below this zone could weaken the near-term structure and expose the 0.8650 level, with further downside opening toward the 0.8600 psychological mark.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.32%-0.38%-0.14%-0.27%-0.48%-0.51%-0.33%
EUR0.32%-0.04%0.15%0.05%-0.17%-0.21%-0.03%
GBP0.38%0.04%0.19%0.07%-0.12%-0.18%0.03%
JPY0.14%-0.15%-0.19%-0.11%-0.34%-0.39%-0.20%
CAD0.27%-0.05%-0.07%0.11%-0.20%-0.24%-0.06%
AUD0.48%0.17%0.12%0.34%0.20%-0.06%0.15%
NZD0.51%0.21%0.18%0.39%0.24%0.06%0.21%
CHF0.33%0.03%-0.03%0.20%0.06%-0.15%-0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Offshore Yuan Extends Gains

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.87 per dollar on Monday, extending gains from the previous week in thin holiday trading, even as geopolitical risks remained elevated. Tensions in the Middle East continue to cloud market sentiment, with US allies such as Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey reportedly working to broker a roughly 45-day ceasefire aimed at averting potential US strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and possible retaliation from Tehran.

The latest developments follow President Donald Trump’s decision to extend his deadline to Tuesday for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has rejected Washington’s ultimatum, stating it will only fully reopen the waterway once war-related damages are compensated. Domestically, investors are turning their focus to upcoming inflation data due later this week. Consumer inflation is expected to ease slightly, while producer prices are projected to post its first annual increase since September 2022.

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EUR/USD Price – Symmetrical Triangle formation near bottom triggers reversal hopes

  • EUR/USD rises to near 1.1560 as Iran’s confirmation of receiving the US ceasefire proposal has improved the market mood.
  • The USD Index slides below 100.00 as its safe-haven demand diminishes.
  • Iran clarifies that it won’t reopen Hormuz in exchange of temporary ceasefire.

The EUR/USD pair trades 0.4% higher to near 1.1560 during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair strengthens as market sentiment turns favorable toward riskier assets, such as the Euro (EUR), following confirmation from Iran that it has received the United States’ (US) ceasefire proposal through Pakistan.

An improvement in investors’ risk appetite has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar (USD). During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down almost 0.4% to near 99.80. The USD Index was steady above 100.00 in the Asian trade.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.34%-0.38%-0.16%-0.19%-0.48%-0.53%-0.31%
EUR0.34%-0.02%0.15%0.16%-0.16%-0.18%0.00%
GBP0.38%0.02%0.17%0.15%-0.12%-0.18%0.05%
JPY0.16%-0.15%-0.17%-0.01%-0.32%-0.38%-0.16%
CAD0.19%-0.16%-0.15%0.00%-0.28%-0.35%-0.12%
AUD0.48%0.16%0.12%0.32%0.28%-0.07%0.17%
NZD0.53%0.18%0.18%0.38%0.35%0.07%0.24%
CHF0.31%-0.01%-0.05%0.16%0.12%-0.17%-0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Though Iran has acknowledged the receipt of the ceasefire proposal, it has clarified that there will be no acceptance of the proposal under pressure or deadlines. Tehran has also stated that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a passage to 20% of global oil supply, in exchange for a ‘temporary ceasefire’.

On the macro front, investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Services PMI is expected to arrive at 55.0, lower than the previous reading of 56.1.

This week, major highlights will be the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1560 at the press time. The pair sits just below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1570, keeping a mild bearish bias in place while price remains capped beneath this dynamic barrier. A symmetrical triangle formation on the bottom level suggests that the broader trend has turned sideways, and a bullish reversal could be around the corner.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) range shift move into the 40.00-60.00 zone from territory below 40.00 signifies cooling upside momentum, with bullish bias remaining in place.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA around 1.1570, followed by the descending trend-line region near 1.1600, where repeated failures have formed a tight cap on the upside. A close above that zone would weaken the bearish stance and open the way toward 1.1660. On the downside, immediate support is located at the rising trend line from 1.1408, now intersecting around 1.1500, with a break there exposing the late-1.14 area as the next bearish target. A sustained move below 1.1450 would confirm a deeper downside extension within the prevailing daily downtrend towards the March low at 1.1411.

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EUR/GBP eases to levels near 0.8700 amid mild risk-off markets

  • EUR/GBP retreats towards 0.8700 but remains within the previous days’ ranges.
  • The Euro remains near one-month highs after rallying more thn 1% over the last three weeks.
  • ECB-BoE monetary policy divergence is keeping EUR/GBP’s downside attempts limited.

The Euro (EUR) is trading lower against the British Pound (GBP) on a calm week opening, with most markets closed on Easter Monday, and markets wary of risk, amid greater concerns about an escalation of the war in Iran. The pair is trading at 0.8720 at the time of writing, down from session highs at 0.8735, yet still within the last few days’ trading range.

Investors are holding their breath following fresh threats by US President Donald Trump to destroy Iran’s bridges and energy plants if Tehran does not open the Strait of Hormuz before Tuesday at 8 PM.

Earlier in the day, however, a report by Axios suggested that a group of regional mediators is negotiating a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a peace deal. This has contributed to easing risk aversion somewhat, but Trump’s mixed messages on the war are keeping traders on edge.

ECB-BoE monetary divergence

From a wider perspective, the pair is consolidating near one-month highs, as the Euro has shown greater resilience than the Pound amid the month-long war in the Middle East. The higher inflationary pressures have prompted European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers to suggest that a rate hike is coming, while BoE Governor Andrew Bailey played down the chances of any near-term monetary tightening.

In the calendar on Monday, the main focus will be on the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index, which is likely to show the impact of the Iran war and the energy shock on institutional investors’ confidence. This reading is unlikely to provide any significant support to the common currency.

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NZD/USD rebounds from four-month low; retakes 0.5700 as ceasefire talks weigh on USD

  • NZD/USD rebounds after retesting a four-month trough during the Asian session on Monday.
  • Reports of a push for a US-Iran ceasefire weigh on the USD and lend some support to spot prices.
  • Geopolitical risks remain in play, warranting caution before positioning for any further recovery.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.5680 region, or over a four-month trough retested during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. Spot prices currently trade just above the 0.5700 mark, up nearly 0.25% for the day, though the upside potential seems limited.

Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. The headlines offer a temporary respite to the fragile global risk sentiment and undermine the US Dollar’s (USD) global reserve currency status, which turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the NZD/USD pair. Investors, however, remain on edge amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if Tehran does not meet his deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. Iran, on the other hand, outlined a new condition and said that the transit through the strategic waterway could resume if part of the revenue is allocated to compensate Iran for war-related damages. Moreover, chances of a deal over the next 48 hours remain low.

Meanwhile, investors remain worried that the war-driven surge in energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. In fact, traders are now pricing in a greater probability that the Fed will raise borrowing costs in 2026, which could act as a tailwind for the USD. This might cap the upside for the NZD/USD pair and warrants some caution for bullish traders.

Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Services PMI for some impetus later during the North American session amid thin liquidity on the back of the Easter Monday Holiday in many global financial markets. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any further appreciating move.