AUD/USD Price – Consolidates around 0.6850 as bears await break below 100-day SMA

March 31, 2026
  • AUD/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase near a two-month low set on Monday.
  • The hawkish RBA Minutes and Iran de-escalation hopes offer some support to the pair.
  • The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for deeper losses.

The AUD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday and consolidates its recent losses registered over the past week or so, to its lowest level in over two months, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around mid-0.6800s, nearly unchanged for the day, amid mixed fundamental cues.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) draws some support from the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes, showing that board members agreed further tightening would likely be needed. Adding to this, reviving hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East boosts investors’ confidence, prompting a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from the year-to-date and further benefiting the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices find some support near the rising 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.6820 area, which tempers the downside. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below its signal line in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward 36, both reinforcing fading bullish momentum and favoring further corrective pressure.

The 100-day SMA is closely followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-March move higher, around the 0.6800 round figure, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Some follow-through selling below the recent lows in the 0.6880–0.6850 region would turn the focus toward the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.6713. A clear break under 0.6713 would open the path toward the 78.6% level at 0.6586 and signal a deeper fall.

On the flip side, the initial resistance emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6803, now acting as a nearby pivot, with stronger resistance at the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.6892. A sustained recovery above 0.6892 would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.7003, where sellers previously capped advances. Nevertheless, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds well below the 23.6% Fibo. retracement near the 0.7000 psychological mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

USD/CHF struggles to extent winning streak on de-escalation in Middle East conflicts

March 31, 2026
  • USD/CHF edges down to near 0.7985 as the US Dollar faces slight selling pressure.
  • A fresh de-escalation in the Middle East war has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar.
  • US President Trump is willing for peace with Iran without the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The USD/CHF pair ticks lower to near 0.7985 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, struggling to extend its five-day winning streak, as the US Dollar (USD) faces slight selling pressure on reports that United States (US) President Donald Trump is willing to make peace with Iran without forcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly around 100.40.

Earlier in the day, a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that US President Trump is ready for peace with Iran, as Washington has cripped its military infrastructure. Trump added that Washington would pursue diplomatic ways for the Hormuz reopening, as a forceful way to reopen the waterways would stretch the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.

US President Trump’s call for a truce has improved the risk appetite of investors, resulting in a strong demand for riskier assets across the world. S&P 500 futures trade almost 1% higher above 6,400, as of writing.

A fresh de-escalation in Middle East conflicts has also resulted in a sharp correction in the oil price, which could weigh on hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets that were accelerated due to higher energy prices-led de-anchored inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades marginally higher against a majority of its currency peers. Broadly the Swiss currency has been under pressure as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expressed, in the monetary policy announcement this month, readiness to intervene against excessive appreciation in the CHF.

USD/JPY Price – Bulls struggle below 160.00 amid intervention fears, softer USD

March 31, 2026
  • USD/JPY faces rejection ahead of the 160.00 psychological mark amid a modest USD downtick.
  • Intervention fears further benefit the JPY and contribute to capping the upside for spot prices.
  • The technical setup favors a bullish outlook amid reduced BoJ rate hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties.

The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the 160.00 neighborhood on Tuesday, though it manages to hold above the previous day’s swing low. Spot prices currently trade around the 159.70-159.75 region, unchanged for the day, as traders seem reluctant amid mixed fundamental cues.

Against the backdrop of economic concerns stemming from the Iran war, softer Tokyo consumer inflation figures temper bets for an immediate policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, in turn, undermines the Japanese Yen (JPY) and supports the USD/JPY pair. However, hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and cap spot prices amid JPY intervention fears.

From a technical perspective, the near-term tone stays mildly bullish as the USD/JPY pair holds well above the rising 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent hesitation above the 160.00 psychological mark. Furthermore, the lack of follow-through selling favors bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flattened around the zero line after losing upside traction, suggesting fading bullish momentum rather than a clear reversal. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 remains in positive territory without overbought signals, which validates the positive outlook and supports a bias for dip-buying while momentum consolidates.

The aforementioned structure favors renewed tests of 160.30, the recent swing high, followed by a higher barrier at 161.00, where a breakout would reopen the path toward fresh cycle highs. On the downside, immediate support aligns at 159.00, with a deeper floor at 158.40 that guarded prior pullbacks. A daily close below the latter would expose 157.70 as the next downside level for the USD/JPY pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

GBP/USD Price – Holds gains near 1.3200 despite persistent bearish bias

March 31, 2026
  • GBP/USD may retest support near 1.3150 at the lower boundary of the descending channel.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 38 signals fading downside momentum, but insufficient buying pressure.
  • The pair may climb toward resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3291.

GBP/USD halts its five-day losing streak, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bearish bias, as the pair moves downwards within the descending channel pattern.

The near-term bias stays mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap price action and frame a descending short-term profile.

Additionally, the latest 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 38 after recovering from oversold territory, indicating fading downside momentum but not yet enough buying pressure to challenge the dominant corrective phase from recent highs.

The GBP/USD pair may retest the immediate support at the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3150. A break below the channel would expose the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

On the upside, the GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.3291. Further advances would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3412, followed by the upper descending channel boundary around 1.3460. A break above this confluence resistance would trigger a bullish bias, paving the way for the pair to test 1.3869, its highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.08%-0.05%0.05%0.12%0.20%-0.10%
EUR0.03%-0.04%0.02%0.13%0.18%0.26%-0.03%
GBP0.08%0.04%0.06%0.18%0.23%0.30%0.01%
JPY0.05%-0.02%-0.06%0.11%0.16%0.24%-0.04%
CAD-0.05%-0.13%-0.18%-0.11%0.06%0.14%-0.15%
AUD-0.12%-0.18%-0.23%-0.16%-0.06%0.09%-0.21%
NZD-0.20%-0.26%-0.30%-0.24%-0.14%-0.09%-0.30%
CHF0.10%0.03%-0.01%0.04%0.15%0.21%0.30%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/USD snaps five-day losing streak as Trump mulls ending Iran war

March 31, 2026

EUR/USD finds support near 1.1450 after snapping a five-day losing streak.

US President Trump is willing to end the war with Iran, WSJ reported.

Investors await flash Eurozone HICP data for March.

The EUR/USD pair attracts bids after a five-day losing streak and edges higher to near 1.1475 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair ticks up as the US Dollar (USD) edges down amid hopes of an end to the month-long war in the Middle East.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly lower to near 100.40.

The expectations of peace in the Middle East war, which involves the United States (US), Israel, and Iran, have accelerated as President Trump has stated that he is willing to end the war, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported. The report also shows that Trump is ready for peace despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed, as he doesn’t intend a forceful reopening to avoid stretching the military mission beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.

The continuous closure of the Hormuz, through which almost 20% of global energy is supplied, would limit the upside in the oil price, a scenario that will keep global inflation projections elevated. This could be the reason behind a slight downtick in the US Dollar, which should have faced intense selling pressure on peace hopes, as it rallied in the past few weeks due to hopes that de-anchored inflation expectations would discourage the Federal Reserve (Fed) from loosening the monetary policy in the near term.

Meanwhile, higher oil prices are expected to remain a key drag on the Euro (EUR), given that the Eurozone is an energy importer.

On the macro front, investors await the flash Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for March, which will be published at 09:00 GMT. The headline HICP is expected to have grown at a robust pace of 2.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 1.9%.

USD/JPY retreats from intervention red line as Japan warns on Yen weakness

March 30, 2026
  • USD/JPY retreats after briefly surpassing 160.00, a level widely seen as a red line for Japanese authorities
  • Japanese officials step up warnings over JPY weakness and do not rule out decisive action.
  • Middle East geopolitical tensions and Powell’s cautious tone help limit the US Dollar’s downside.

USD/JPY retreats on Monday and trades around 159.60 at the time of writing, down 0.44% on the day, after reaching a nearly 20-month high above 160.00 earlier in the day. The move lower follows renewed warnings from Japanese authorities about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market.

The main catalyst behind the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) rebound came from comments by Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, who pointed to increasing speculative activity in currency markets. He warned that Tokyo could take “decisive steps” if these trends persist, reviving concerns about direct intervention to support the Japanese currency.

These remarks come as some policymakers also raise the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to curb the inflationary effects of JPY weakness and rising energy prices. According to analysts at MUFG, recent signals suggest that Japanese authorities could respond through both monetary tightening and foreign exchange intervention if pressure on the currency continues.

However, the downside in the US Dollar (USD) remains limited as risk aversion persists amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The involvement of Iran-backed Houthi militias and threats to disrupt key maritime routes for Oil transport have increased market uncertainty and helped sustain demand for safe-haven assets.

In this context, US President Donald Trump said that Washington is holding discussions with what he described as a “new regime” in Iran in an effort to end military operations. At the same time, he warned that the United States (US) could target Iranian energy infrastructure if no agreement is reached quickly or if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic.

On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said earlier that the current policy stance is in a “good place” and that the Fed will wait for more data before adjusting interest rates. The Fed chair also stressed that supply shocks, particularly those linked to energy prices and geopolitical tensions, must be monitored to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.

Investors will also keep a close eye on upcoming Japanese data releases, including the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures, which could offer further clues about the country’s economic outlook and the future policy path of the Bank of Japan.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.57%0.65%-0.43%0.22%0.43%0.67%0.21%
EUR-0.57%0.07%-0.95%-0.34%-0.10%0.13%-0.37%
GBP-0.65%-0.07%-1.05%-0.39%-0.18%0.07%-0.43%
JPY0.43%0.95%1.05%0.66%0.87%1.12%0.63%
CAD-0.22%0.34%0.39%-0.66%0.20%0.41%-0.05%
AUD-0.43%0.10%0.18%-0.87%-0.20%0.26%-0.23%
NZD-0.67%-0.13%-0.07%-1.12%-0.41%-0.26%-0.50%
CHF-0.21%0.37%0.43%-0.63%0.05%0.23%0.50%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

GBP/USD dives to four-month lows as Middle East tensions lift the US Dollar

March 30, 2026
  • GBP/USD is weighed by Middle East tensions, with higher oil prices boosting haven demand.
  • Powell acknowledges policy tension as traders trim aggressive Fed tightening bets.
  • Weak UK data and energy vulnerability keep pressure on Sterling.

The British Pound (GBP) collapses on Monday as Middle East escalations push the US Dollar (USD) higher, while Oil prices extend their gains for the fourth consecutive trading day. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3184, down by more than 0.50%, hitting a four-month low.

Sterling sinks as oil rises, Fed bets ease, UK outlook dims ahead

Market mood has improved slightly as US President Donald Trump said that the current Iranian regime seems “reasonable.” However, he added that if Iran’s new regime doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict could escalate after the arrival of 3,500 troops to the Middle East.

In the meantime, fears that the Iran war could weigh on the economy pushed traders to trim hawkish bets and increase the chances for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of 2026.

Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell crossed the wires, acknowledging that there’s tension between the dual mandate’s goals. He said that the central bank is committed to getting inflation back to 2% on a “sustained basis,” adding that tariff-related inflation likely added 0.5% to 1% to inflation, but it’s likely a one-time effect.

Powell said that monetary policy is in a good place, that events in the Middle East affect gas prices, and added that long-term inflation expectations remain in check. Furthermore, commented that officials may need to respond to the impact of the conflict and that, if prices begin to shift inflation expectations, they would be ready to act.

In the UK, some economists see vulnerabilities due to Britain’s dependence on imported natural gas. Along with stubbornly high inflation above the Bank of England’s target, it paints a gloomy economic outlook, as downside risks for the economy rise.

Last week’s economic data revealed that British business activity hit a six-month low, manufacturers’ input costs rose at their fastest rate since 1992, and retail sales declined. Meanwhile, traders’ eyes are on the release of economic growth data, as they expect the UK’s Q4 2025 GDP to remain steady at 1%.

In the US, investors’ focus will be on the Consumer Confidence index and the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February, as well as speeches by Fed officials.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook 

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3188. The near-term bias is bearish as spot holds well below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3500, confirming a downside break from the prior range. Price has slipped through the rising support trend line drawn from 1.3035, turning the broader structure from supported to pressured. The downward-sloping resistance trend line from 1.3869 continues to cap bounces, while the rising Fed Sentiment Index highlights a supportive backdrop for the dollar that aligns with the current selling pressure in cable.

Immediate resistance appears near 1.3330, where recent swing highs converge with the descending trend line, followed by 1.3410 and 1.3435 as the next upside hurdles if a corrective rebound develops. On the downside, the latest low at 1.3188 is the first level to watch, with further weakness opening the way toward the psychological 1.3100 area and then 1.3035, where the prior trend-line origin sits as deeper support. As long as price remains beneath 1.3330 and the moving average cluster around 1.3500, rallies are likely to be sold rather than sustained.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.49%0.55%-0.53%0.21%0.29%0.62%0.13%
EUR-0.49%0.04%-1.00%-0.28%-0.12%0.13%-0.36%
GBP-0.55%-0.04%-1.07%-0.33%-0.21%0.09%-0.41%
JPY0.53%1.00%1.07%0.75%0.85%1.15%0.66%
CAD-0.21%0.28%0.33%-0.75%0.09%0.35%-0.09%
AUD-0.29%0.12%0.21%-0.85%-0.09%0.30%-0.18%
NZD-0.62%-0.13%-0.09%-1.15%-0.35%-0.30%-0.50%
CHF-0.13%0.36%0.41%-0.66%0.09%0.18%0.50%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Trade of The Day – AUD/NZD

March 30, 2026

Facts

  • AUDNZD rebounded from the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA30; light purple) during today’s session.
  • The swap market (OIS curve) currently prices an approximately 60% probability of an interest rate hike in Australia for May, compared to approximately 8% in New Zealand.
  • The RSI stands at approximately 52, remaining well below the overbought threshold (i.e., below 70).

Recommendation

  • Long Position (BUY) at market price
  • Target Prices (Take Profit): 1.21000 (TP1), 1.21400 (TP2)
  • Stop Loss (SL): 1.18830

Source: xStation5

Opinion

AUDNZD recently underwent a correction triggered by a global decline in risk appetite and concerns regarding an economic slowdown in China. As China is highly dependent on Iranian oil, its trade ties with the Australian mining industry significantly influence the Australian dollar’s valuation. However, the downward move stalled at the EMA30; after several days of sideways trading, the pair rebounded, signaling a likely continuation of the broader uptrend.

While global inflation concerns driven by energy prices remain prevalent, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to position itself as the most hawkish central bank among G10 nations, with rates currently at 4.10%. This creates a favorable carry trade opportunity against the significantly more dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), where rates stand at 2.25%.

The 10-year bond yield spread between the two economies has remained stable since early March (at approximately 30 bps). Therefore, in the short term, Australia’s active hiking cycle should continue to support the AUDNZD trend. A primary risk factor would be a decisive pivot from the RBNZ; according to the OIS curve, markets expect the RBNZ to resume hikes in the autumn, potentially ending the year with rates at 3%.

Methodology

This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the AUDNZD chart and a fundamental analysis of both economies (focusing on Australian and New Zealand monetary policy). The directional bias was determined using moving averages, price action, and market expectations regarding central bank responses to the ongoing conflict in Iran. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were set using Price Action methodology (TP1 at the nearest resistance, TP2 at the recent peak, and SL at the nearest swing low).