JPY 12 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 3, 2026 No Comments

JPY flat lines amid persistent tensions in the Middle East

USD/JPY holds steady around 159.60 in Friday’s early Asian session.
Persistent tensions in the Middle East underpin the US Dollar, but US tariff threats might cap its upside.
BoJ authorities warned that they may adjust policy if Yen weakness persists.

The USD/JPY pair trades on a flat note near 159.60 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday. All eyes will be on the US March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be published later on Friday.

Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive up oil prices and lift the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). US President Donald Trump pressures Iran to make a deal after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”

On the other hand, chaos around U.S. tariff policy might cap the upside for the Greenback. The Trump administration plans to slap up to 100% on certain imported medicines from companies that don’t reach deals with his administration in the coming months, per Bloomberg. A White House statement said that the new levy applies to patented drugs made in countries that lack tariff deals with the US by companies that don’t have most-favored-nation-pricing agreements with the administration.

Fears that Japanese authorities would step in to support the domestic currency could support the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair. Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Monday that officials may need to take “decisive” steps if speculative moves persist in the currency market.

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – USDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCHF

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

USDJPY
Since February 12, the USDJPY has been trading in a strong uptrend. Initially, the movement was controlled by a 1:1 corrective pattern with a range of approximately 140 pips; however, in mid-March, a deeper correction occurred, after which the market established a new high. As a result, the current largest corrective pattern has a range of approximately 240 pips. At this point, the key support level is 158.10, derived from the lower boundary of this pattern. As long as this level holds, the uptrend remains in place. A break below it, however, could open the way for a larger correction or even a trend reversal.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation

NZDUSD
The NZDUSD pair has been trending downward since late January. We are currently seeing an upward corrective move. If the correction continues, the key resistance level remains at 0.5845, where the upper boundary of the 1:1 correction pattern is located. According to the Overbalance methodology, the downtrend remains in effect until this level is negated.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

USDCHF
Since early January, USDCHF has been in a downtrend. However, an upward correction has been developing since late January, and its range has already exceeded smaller geometric patterns, including the 0.7902 level. Nevertheless, the price has failed to break through the key resistance at 0.8042, where the upper boundary of the largest corrective pattern is located. According to the Overbalance methodology, the downtrend remains in effect until this level is broken. The decline could accelerate after falling below the 0.7902 level, which is the lower boundary of the smaller geometric pattern. Conversely, a break above 0.8042 could lead to a shift to an uptrend.

USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Tests nine-day EMA support after easing below 184.00

EUR/JPY may encounter initial resistance near 184.70 at the upper ascending triangle boundary.
The Relative Strength Index near 52 indicates steady momentum.
Immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA near 183.80.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross is moving sideways within an ascending triangle pattern, indicating consolidation. However, the structure reflects rising support levels meeting a relatively flat resistance zone, signaling building pressure that could lead to a breakout. A sustained move above resistance would confirm bullish continuation.

The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the nine-day EMA tracks just beneath spot, reinforcing a shallow upward slope. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 stays above its midline and confirms steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum, with recent pullbacks finding demand before the medium-term average.

The EUR/JPY cross may find the initial resistance around the upper ascending triangle boundary at 184.70. A successful break above this triangle would reinforce the bullish bias and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.80, followed by the 50-day EMA at 183.39. Further support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending triangle around 182.80. A break below the channel would expose a nearly four-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.46%	0.55%	0.37%	0.28%	0.72%	0.71%	0.53%
EUR	-0.46%		0.09%	-0.11%	-0.21%	0.27%	0.26%	0.06%
GBP	-0.55%	-0.09%		-0.19%	-0.28%	0.18%	0.19%	-0.03%
JPY	-0.37%	0.11%	0.19%		-0.10%	0.35%	0.34%	0.15%
CAD	-0.28%	0.21%	0.28%	0.10%		0.45%	0.43%	0.25%
AUD	-0.72%	-0.27%	-0.18%	-0.35%	-0.45%		-0.01%	-0.23%
NZD	-0.71%	-0.26%	-0.19%	-0.34%	-0.43%	0.00%		-0.20%
CHF	-0.53%	-0.06%	0.03%	-0.15%	-0.25%	0.23%	0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

JPY softens after Trump Iran war remarks

USD/JPY edges higher to around 159.20 in Thursday’s Asian session.
Trump said his core “objectives are nearing completion” in Iran.
Japan’s Mimura said authorities may take a ‘decisive’ step if speculative moves persist.

The USD/JPY pair gains momentum to near 159.20 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) following US President Donald Trump’s speech from the White House.

Trump said on Thursday that the US is “systemically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders.” He added that Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones has been curtailed.

A White House official stated that the US President will focus on the operation having met or exceeded all of its benchmarks, including destroying Iran’s ballistic missiles and production facilities. Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire and persistent tensions in the Middle East continue to boost the Greenback in the near term.

Fears that Japanese authorities would step in to support the domestic currency could help limit the JPY’s losses. Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Monday that officials may need to take “decisive” steps if speculative moves persist in the currency market.

“We are hearing that speculative moves are increasing in the currency market, in addition to the crude futures market. If this situation continues, it may be time to take decisive measures,” said Mimura.

Currency Hedger April 1, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Remains above 183.50 to test nine-day EMA barrier

EUR/JPY tests the immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 183.70.
The Relative Strength Index hovers near the 50 mid-line, indicating balanced momentum.
The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA at 183.36.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 183.60 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross moves sideways within the ascending triangle pattern, reflecting buying pressure.

The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/PY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), continuing to offer a rising trend base. The nine-day EMA remains above the 50-day EMA, keeping a short-term positive alignment despite the recent consolidation under the 184.00 area.

Momentum is balanced, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering close to the 50 mid-line after recovering from last week’s dip, which points to stabilizing demand rather than aggressive buying pressure.

The EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 183.70, followed by the upper ascending triangle boundary around 184.60. Further advances above the triangle would reinforce the bullish bias and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.

On the downside, the primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 183.36, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending triangle around 182.70. A break below the channel would expose the three-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.09%	-0.09%	0.10%	-0.03%	-0.05%	0.17%	-0.21%
EUR	0.09%		-0.01%	0.18%	0.06%	0.05%	0.28%	-0.11%
GBP	0.09%	0.00%		0.19%	0.06%	0.06%	0.29%	-0.09%
JPY	-0.10%	-0.18%	-0.19%		-0.11%	-0.10%	0.09%	-0.25%
CAD	0.03%	-0.06%	-0.06%	0.11%		0.00%	0.20%	-0.18%
AUD	0.05%	-0.05%	-0.06%	0.10%	-0.01%		0.22%	-0.15%
NZD	-0.17%	-0.28%	-0.29%	-0.09%	-0.20%	-0.22%		-0.37%
CHF	0.21%	0.11%	0.09%	0.25%	0.18%	0.15%	0.37%

Currency Hedger March 31, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY Price – Bulls struggle below 160.00 amid intervention fears, softer USD

USD/JPY faces rejection ahead of the 160.00 psychological mark amid a modest USD downtick.
Intervention fears further benefit the JPY and contribute to capping the upside for spot prices.
The technical setup favors a bullish outlook amid reduced BoJ rate hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties.

The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the 160.00 neighborhood on Tuesday, though it manages to hold above the previous day’s swing low. Spot prices currently trade around the 159.70-159.75 region, unchanged for the day, as traders seem reluctant amid mixed fundamental cues.

Against the backdrop of economic concerns stemming from the Iran war, softer Tokyo consumer inflation figures temper bets for an immediate policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, in turn, undermines the Japanese Yen (JPY) and supports the USD/JPY pair. However, hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and cap spot prices amid JPY intervention fears.

From a technical perspective, the near-term tone stays mildly bullish as the USD/JPY pair holds well above the rising 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent hesitation above the 160.00 psychological mark. Furthermore, the lack of follow-through selling favors bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flattened around the zero line after losing upside traction, suggesting fading bullish momentum rather than a clear reversal. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 remains in positive territory without overbought signals, which validates the positive outlook and supports a bias for dip-buying while momentum consolidates.

The aforementioned structure favors renewed tests of 160.30, the recent swing high, followed by a higher barrier at 161.00, where a breakout would reopen the path toward fresh cycle highs. On the downside, immediate support aligns at 159.00, with a deeper floor at 158.40 that guarded prior pullbacks. A daily close below the latter would expose 157.70 as the next downside level for the USD/JPY pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Currency Hedger March 30, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY retreats from intervention red line as Japan warns on Yen weakness

USD/JPY retreats after briefly surpassing 160.00, a level widely seen as a red line for Japanese authorities
Japanese officials step up warnings over JPY weakness and do not rule out decisive action.
Middle East geopolitical tensions and Powell’s cautious tone help limit the US Dollar’s downside.

USD/JPY retreats on Monday and trades around 159.60 at the time of writing, down 0.44% on the day, after reaching a nearly 20-month high above 160.00 earlier in the day. The move lower follows renewed warnings from Japanese authorities about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market.

The main catalyst behind the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) rebound came from comments by Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, who pointed to increasing speculative activity in currency markets. He warned that Tokyo could take “decisive steps” if these trends persist, reviving concerns about direct intervention to support the Japanese currency.

These remarks come as some policymakers also raise the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to curb the inflationary effects of JPY weakness and rising energy prices. According to analysts at MUFG, recent signals suggest that Japanese authorities could respond through both monetary tightening and foreign exchange intervention if pressure on the currency continues.

However, the downside in the US Dollar (USD) remains limited as risk aversion persists amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The involvement of Iran-backed Houthi militias and threats to disrupt key maritime routes for Oil transport have increased market uncertainty and helped sustain demand for safe-haven assets.

In this context, US President Donald Trump said that Washington is holding discussions with what he described as a “new regime” in Iran in an effort to end military operations. At the same time, he warned that the United States (US) could target Iranian energy infrastructure if no agreement is reached quickly or if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic.

On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said earlier that the current policy stance is in a “good place” and that the Fed will wait for more data before adjusting interest rates. The Fed chair also stressed that supply shocks, particularly those linked to energy prices and geopolitical tensions, must be monitored to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.

Investors will also keep a close eye on upcoming Japanese data releases, including the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures, which could offer further clues about the country’s economic outlook and the future policy path of the Bank of Japan.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.57%	0.65%	-0.43%	0.22%	0.43%	0.67%	0.21%
EUR	-0.57%		0.07%	-0.95%	-0.34%	-0.10%	0.13%	-0.37%
GBP	-0.65%	-0.07%		-1.05%	-0.39%	-0.18%	0.07%	-0.43%
JPY	0.43%	0.95%	1.05%		0.66%	0.87%	1.12%	0.63%
CAD	-0.22%	0.34%	0.39%	-0.66%		0.20%	0.41%	-0.05%
AUD	-0.43%	0.10%	0.18%	-0.87%	-0.20%		0.26%	-0.23%
NZD	-0.67%	-0.13%	-0.07%	-1.12%	-0.41%	-0.26%		-0.50%
CHF	-0.21%	0.37%	0.43%	-0.63%	0.05%	0.23%	0.50%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger March 27, 2026 No Comments

Chart of The Day – USD/JPY

USDJPY remains under strong pressure, trading in the 159.50–159.80 range, close to the psychological barrier of 160.00. Current price movements are driven by a combination of dollar strength, concerns over potential Japanese government intervention, and macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

Source: xStation5

What shapes USDJPY movements?

Dollar strength and global tensions
USDJPY is supported by the overall strength of the US dollar. Investors view the dollar as a safe-haven amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty in commodity markets. Strong demand for the USD limits the potential for yen appreciation, especially in an environment of global unrest and increased risk aversion.

Risk of intervention by Japanese authorities
Japanese authorities have increasingly signaled their readiness to intervene if USDJPY exceeds the 160.00 level. The purpose of potential intervention is to protect Japanese exports and stabilize the economy. A strong dollar raises import costs and may increase inflationary pressure in Japan. Interventions serve as a tool for authorities to manage excessive currency fluctuations that could negatively impact the trade balance and financial market stability.

Monetary policy
The Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose policy, maintaining low interest rates over the long term. At the same time, US rates remain elevated, widening the yield differential between the USD and JPY and supporting further dollar strength against the yen. This divergence in monetary policy makes the dollar more attractive to investors in the short and medium term, maintaining upward pressure on USDJPY.

Energy prices and Japan’s trade balance
Japan is heavily reliant on imported oil and gas. Rising energy prices increase import costs, weaken the trade balance, and limit growth potential. Higher commodity prices also add to inflationary pressure, increasing the risk of currency instability. In this context, a strong dollar combined with high commodity prices can further weaken the yen, keeping USD/JPY near record levels.

Conclusion

USDJPY remains sensitive to a combination of dollar strength, intervention signals from Japanese authorities, and external factors such as energy prices and geopolitical tensions. Strong dollar momentum and potential actions by the Japanese government limit the scope for stable gains above 160.00.