Currency Hedger No Comments

Three markets to watch next week

The past week brought a sharp bout of volatility to global markets, particularly within the commodities sector.

An initial rebound in crude prices, fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East, reverberated with redoubled force across weather-sensitive agricultural commodities. Markets enter the new week with attention firmly fixed on the United States. The macroeconomic calendar is packed with pivotal events poised to shape investor sentiment over the coming days.

The main highlights include the release of US consumer price index (CPI) data for June, congressional testimony by the newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and the official kickoff of the Wall Street earnings season. Given this confluence of catalysts, three markets warrant close scrutiny in the near term: GOLD , US500 and COCOA .

GOLD

This week, investor focus in the gold market will shift entirely toward the US dollar and the interest rate outlook, both of which face two powerful catalysts. On Tuesday, the US June CPI reading will be released, with consensus expectations pointing to a moderate deceleration in price growth. Following the release of the FOMC minutes, the market will pivot to the next Warsh-related event: the Fed Chair’s semi-annual testimony before Congress. Warsh will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, followed by questioning from the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

Historically, during leadership transitions at the Federal Reserve, markets closely parse every word for clues regarding the future path of monetary policy. Hints of a more dovish tilt would provide potent fuel for a rally in gold, whereas unyielding hawkish rhetoric could unleash heavy selling pressure. However, it is worth noting that Warsh himself has signaled he does not intend to offer forward guidance to the markets. Consequently, the market’s own interpretation of his remarks will be critical.

US500 (S&P 500 Futures)

For the US equity market and its benchmark S&P 500 index, this week marks the commencement of another crucial corporate earnings season. Traditionally, the cycle kicks off with Wall Street’s banking giants; JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America are all scheduled to report on Tuesday.

Beyond financials, investors will closely dissect earnings from tech heavyweights ASML and TSMC (Wednesday and Thursday) as well as Netflix (Thursday). Juxtaposing these corporate results with Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and Thursday’s US retail sales data will provide a more comprehensive economic mosaic. This will allow market participants to gauge whether the US economy and its consumers remain resilient enough to sustain corporate earnings capable of justifying today’s stretched equity valuations.

COCOA

Cocoa has enjoyed a spectacular first half of the year. Following a sharp sell-off early on, the soft commodity is currently staging a massive rebound. While current prices remain below the historic highs printed in 2024, they have surged by roughly 60% since the El Niño weather phenomenon was officially declared last month. Measured from its recent troughs, the pace of the rebound reaches as high as 120%. Violent volatility in recent days has been driven by supply anxieties out of West Africa, where cocoa crop development was initially hit by torrential rains, and plantations are now threatened by the hot, dry conditions associated with El Niño.

Furthermore, the ICE exchange raised margin requirements in response to market instability, a move that only exacerbated swings and forced the capitulation of some speculative capital. This week will prove pivotal for investors in this market as attention shifts from weather patterns to hard demand data. Crucial quarterly European cocoa grindings data is due on Thursday.

A recent report from industry giant Barry Callebaut did register the first increase in sales volumes in over two years—partly driven by an earlier price correction—but the company simultaneously warned that global confectionery consumption remains under pressure. Following such a monumental rally from its lows, the upcoming grindings data will serve as an absolute litmus test of whether high prices have triggered genuine demand destruction, or if the market still has room to run.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Forecasting the upcoming week: US CPI and Warsh testimony to test the Dollar’s recovery

The upcoming week will bring a major test for the US Dollar (USD), with investors focusing on the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and a broad set of activity indicators. China’s second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest-rate decision will also attract significant attention.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 101.00, recovering from a one-week low hit earlier on Friday as investors balance softer recent labor market data against renewed geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation concerns. Tuesday’s US CPI report will be the central event for the Greenback.

Headline CPI is expected to decline 0.1% MoM in June, following a 0.5% increase in May, while annual inflation previously stood at 4.2%. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% MoM, up from 0.2%, while the annual core rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%.

On another note, Fed Chair Warsh will testify on Tuesday and Wednesday, giving markets an opportunity to assess how policymakers balance elevated inflation against signs of weaker hiring. Comments from several Fed officials and the release of the Beige Book will provide additional guidance.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.12%0.07%-0.42%-0.08%-0.17%-0.14%0.21%
EUR-0.12%-0.05%-0.54%-0.19%-0.30%-0.27%0.09%
GBP-0.07%0.05%-0.50%-0.13%-0.25%-0.23%0.13%
JPY0.42%0.54%0.50%0.34%0.25%0.25%0.60%
CAD0.08%0.19%0.13%-0.34%-0.10%-0.08%0.27%
AUD0.17%0.30%0.25%-0.25%0.10%0.02%0.35%
NZD0.14%0.27%0.23%-0.25%0.08%-0.02%0.34%
CHF-0.21%-0.09%-0.13%-0.60%-0.27%-0.35%-0.34%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD trades lower near 1.1420, retreating as the US Dollar recovers from its weekly low, and is set to finish the week with a 0.19% loss. The pair will remain highly sensitive to US CPI and Warsh’s testimony, while the European calendar includes industrial production and final inflation figures.

GBP/USD trades near 1.3400, with a weekly gain of around 0.34% after reaching a three-week high. The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces an important domestic calendar, with United Kingdom (UK) GDP, industrial production, and manufacturing output due on Thursday. UK GDP is expected to grow 0.1% MoM in May, following a 0.1% contraction. Industrial production is forecast to rise 0.1%, while manufacturing production is expected to decline 0.1% after increasing 0.4% previously.

USD/JPY trades lower near 161.70 on Friday but is set to close the week with a 0.24% gain. The pair will remain driven by US Treasury yields, Fed expectations, and concerns over possible intervention by Japanese authorities. A hotter-than-expected US CPI report could lift yields and revive upward pressure on USD/JPY. Softer inflation could extend the pair’s decline and offer further support to the Japanese Yen.

AUD/USD trades slightly higher near 0.6950, supported by a softer broader US Dollar backdrop and recent strength in the Chinese Yuan. However, the Aussie’s direction next week will depend heavily on Chinese economic data and US inflation. Wednesday’s Chinese GDP report is expected to show the economy expanding 4.4% YoY in the second quarter, slowing from 5%. Quarterly growth is forecast at 0.9%. Industrial production is expected to rise 4.7%, while retail sales are projected to decline 0.1% YoY.

USD/CAD trades lower near 1.4150 ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy decision. The BoC is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25%. The accompanying Monetary Policy Report, policy statement and press conference will be closely examined for guidance on inflation, domestic demand and future rate moves. A hawkish message could extend USD/CAD’s decline, while a cautious stance may limit the Canadian Dollar’s strength.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades muted near $71.60 per barrel as investors assess the risk of renewed supply disruptions linked to tensions between the United States and Iran. Oil prices could become more volatile if diplomatic efforts deteriorate further or concerns surrounding Middle Eastern supply routes intensify. However, signs of weaker global demand, particularly from China, may limit gains.

Gold trades lower near $4,102, losing ground as the US Dollar recovers and investors prepare for the US inflation report. The precious metal remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty, although higher Treasury yields could create additional pressure.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Monday, July 13:

  • Fed’s Bowman
  • Fed’s Waller
  • ECB’s Schnabel
  • BoE’s Pill

Tuesday, July 14:

  • Fed’s Warsh
  • Fed’s Barr
  • Fed’s Goolsbee
  • Fed’s Cook
  • Fed’s Bowman
  • BoE’s Bailey

Wednesday, July 15:

  • Fed’s Williams
  • Fed’s Chair Warsh
  • ECB’s Nagel
  • Fed’s Cook
  • Fed’s Musalem

Thursday, July 16:

  • Fed’s Logan
  • Fed’s Schmid
  • Fed’s Jefferson

Friday, July 17:

  • ECB’s Cipollone

Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape

The main monetary-policy event will be the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision on Wednesday, July 15. The central bank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%.

The BoC will also publish its Monetary Policy Report and policy statement, followed by a press conference. No interest-rate decisions are scheduled from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, RBA or RBNZ.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Chart of The Day – USD/JPY

he yen strengthened on Friday following an announcement by Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama that the government intends to encourage pension funds, including the GPIF, to increase their investments in domestic financial assets — a move that many analysts regard as potentially more effective in supporting the currency than direct intervention. The market reacted with a sharp, though so far short-lived, rebound in USD/JPY from above 162 to 161.29, representing a move of almost 0.7 per cent.

Can pension funds sustain this reversal in the trend?

The key question traders are asking is: will the government actually bring about a structural change in the GPIF’s asset allocation, or is this merely verbal intervention without any real action? Today’s reaction can be described as a ‘knee-jerk reaction’, highlighting that the sustainability of further yen purchases requires concrete commitment, not just declarations. Since 2020, the GPIF has maintained a symmetrical 50/50 allocation between domestic and foreign assets, and as recently as March 2025, the fund confirmed that it has no plans to change this structure until 2030, which is indicative of significant institutional inertia.

Investors need to see concrete action, not just words, for the trend of a weakening yen to be reversed — including more aggressive interest rate rises by the BOJ, a reduction in the fiscal deficit, and a genuine change in the GPIF’s asset allocation. This does not alter the fact that even a slight ‘structural shift’ in the allocation would have a huge impact given the scale of the fund, whilst supporting the currency, bonds and shares. History shows, however, that the GPIF has already made radical shifts in its allocation (for example, in 2014 it reduced the share of domestic bonds from 60% to 35%, whilst increasing its equity holdings), so the scenario of a change is not unrealistic, but it requires a formal decision by the fund’s board, not merely a comment from the minister.

Kumiharu Shigehara, the former chief economist at the BOJ, offers a different perspective in the debate, warning that a weak yen is not a strength, but a warning sign — real wages in Japan have been falling for four years running, and the benefits of depreciation mainly go to exporters and asset holders, whilst households pay a higher price for imported energy and food. In his view, a sustained strengthening of the yen requires fiscal credibility, normalisation of monetary policy and productivity growth — not mere rhetoric or intervention.

Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart

The USD/JPY daily chart shows a clear, long-term uptrend that has been in place since November 2025, with the price consistently holding above all three EMAs (50, 100, 200), which confirms the strength of the trend.

  • Short-term resistance: 162.825 — the high from recent sessions, from which the price has just rebounded lower following the news about the GPIF
  • Long-term resistance: 164,000 — the next target level should the trend continue
  • Key support: 160.520 — former resistance from March–April 2026, now acting as structural support, coinciding with the 50-period EMA (160.65)

The market reaction to Katayama’s comments shows a typical ‘sell the rumour’ pattern following a strong rally — the price is testing the resistance level at 162.825 and is being rejected back towards the support level at the EMA50/160.520, but this has not yet broken the main uptrend (higher lows since November).

Is the movement sustainable?

The answer is: probably not in the short term, unless the GPIF takes a formal decision to change its strategic allocation. Fundamental differences in interest rates between the US and Japan, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and Japan’s growing fiscal deficit are structural factors that continue to weigh on the yen, regardless of government statements. Until we see concrete steps — a genuine revision of the GPIF’s allocation, a more hawkish BOJ or progress in fiscal consolidation — Friday’s strengthening can be viewed as a technical correction within the USD/JPY uptrend, rather than a reversal of that trend. However, should a genuine change occur, the directional move could unfold very rapidly, given that investors have long been accustomed to the JPY’s tactical weakness against the USD.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Trade of The Day – EUR/GBP

Facts:

  • The price is near the lower boundary of a consolidation range between 0.886 and 0.861.
  • Upward corrections within the consolidation are breaking to increasingly lower levels, while at the same time testing resistance around 0.863.
  • The EMA100 has crossed the EMA200 from above.

Recommendation:

Short position (Sell) on EURGBP at the market price.

  • Target price (Take Profit; TP): 0.8400
  • Stop Loss (SL): 0.8817

EURGBP (D1)

Source: xStation5

OPINION :

The EURGBP rate is once again testing the lower boundary of the consolidation, which can also be treated as a developing 1:1 pattern, potentially ending with a downside breakout. The repeated defense of the ~0.86 level indicates the strength of this zone; however, increasingly weaker upward corrections within the consolidation reveal buyer weakness and point to the likely direction of further price movement.

Methodology and assumptions:

  • The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels.
  • The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels.
  • The protective stop-loss order was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and with reference to a Fibonacci level.
Currency Hedger No Comments

Trade of the day: GBPUSD

Facts:

  • The pair bounced off the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 1.3500
  • Main trend on the pair remains upward from the beginning of April

Recommendation: Trade: Long GBPUSD at market price Target: 1.3635, 1.3700 Stop: 1.3439

Opinion: Looking at GBPUSD chart, one can observe that the price bounced off the key technical support marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (red rectangles), as well as the 200-period moving average from H4 interval. In addition, the price formed a pin bar pattern on the chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support area near 1.3500, another upward impulse may be about to start. We recommend taking a long position on GBPUSD at market price with two targets: 1.3635, and 1.3700. We recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.3439.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Chart of The Day – EUR/USD

The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1719 on Monday, and despite seemingly positive industrial data, the eurozone is sending out worrying signals. The final reading of the PMI index for the manufacturing sector stood at 52.2 points in April, up from 51.6 a month earlier, which at first glance looks like a solid improvement. In reality, however, the rise in manufacturing activity is not driven by real demand, but by increased stockpiling by firms seeking to secure goods against further shortages and price rises resulting from the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This is a seemingly positive result, which in fact says more about the fear of supply chain disruptions than about the actual strength of the European economy. The devil is in the details, and it is these details that are shaping the outlook for both growth and inflation in the eurozone.

Delivery delays have reached their worst level since July 2022, input cost inflation has risen to a 46-month high, and price pressures are increasingly being passed on to selling prices, marking the largest monthly jump since records began in 1997. As a result, the ECB faces a real dilemma: the data suggest a recovery, but leading indicators of producer sentiment and expectations merely confirm the growing risk of stagflation. For EUR/USD, this implies an environment of heightened uncertainty, in which the exchange rate may be prone to sharp movements depending on further signals from the Fed and the ECB, and any stronger US inflation data could push the pair back towards the support level at 1.1650.

On the EUR/USD daily chart, following a sharp rally to around 1.2060 at the start of the year, the exchange rate underwent a significant correction that brought prices down to lows around 1.1380, from where a rebound occurred.

Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1719, oscillating near the 50-day EMA (1.1681) and the 100-day EMA (1.1678), which together form a dynamic support zone, while the 200-day EMA at 1.1634 serves as another line of defense for the bulls. Bollinger Bands indicate narrowing volatility, with the upper band at 1.1771 and the lower band at 1.1669, signaling a potential breakout in the coming sessions. The RSI is hovering around the neutral level of 52, which does not provide a clear directional signal and suggests that the market is still looking for momentum for a decisive move above the resistance at 1.1800 or a deeper correction toward the aforementioned 200-day EMA support.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC extends rally, ETH and XRP near key resistance zones

  • Bitcoin extends gains on Monday after taking a breather in the previous week.
  • Ethereum approaches the 200-day EMA, a decisive close above this level could open the door for an upside move.
  • XRP hovers near the $1.40 resistance zone, a breakout above this barrier may trigger a fresh rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) pushes higher on Monday, trading above $80,000 and resuming its uptrend after a brief consolidation phase last week. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) follow BTC’s footsteps and extend gains at the start of the week, nearing their key resistance zones, where a breakout suggests a fresh rally ahead.

Bitcoin hits $80,000

Bitcoin price is trading at $80,161 on Monday, retaining a constructive bias as it holds above a dense support band defined by the 50% retracement at $78,962 (drawn from the January high to the February low) and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $75,903. The shorter-term 50-day EMA around $74,448 reinforces the underlying uptrend.

Momentum remains firm, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers in bullish territory near 66, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned higher and returned to positive territory, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone despite the proximity to major overhead barriers.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 200-day EMA around $81,912, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83,437 and a more prominent horizontal cap near $84,410; a daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the January highs around $97,924.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $80,000 handle, with the 50% retracement at $78,962 as the first substantive floor; a deeper pullback would expose a broader demand area between the 100-day EMA at $75,903, the prior channel top near $75,680, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge while the broader bullish structure remains intact.

Ethereum could extend gains if it closes above the 50-day EMA

Ethereum is trading at $2,370 on Monday, maintaining a constructive near-term bias as price holds above the 50-day and 100-day EMA at roughly $2,256 and $2,344, respectively. ETH, however, is approaching a dense Fibonacci barrier, with the 38.2% retracement at $2,380 capping the immediate topside, while higher retracements and the 200-day EMA, clustered around $2,575, reinforce broader overhead supply. 

A rising RSI on the daily chart near 58 suggests firm but not overstretched bullish momentum, while the negative yet improving MACD histogram hints that downside pressure is fading within this developing up-leg.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,380, beyond which the $2,575 area forms a critical confluence zone, combining the 50% retracement at $2,575 with the 200-day EMA at $2,575; a daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2,770.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 100-day EMA at $2,344, followed by the 50-day EMA at $2,256, while the upper boundary of the horizontal parallel channel around $2,148 and the 23.6% retracement at $2,138 guard the broader bullish structure, with only a drop toward the channel floor near $1,747 threatening the medium-term uptrend.

XRP is near key resistance at $1.40

XRP price is trading at $1.41 on Monday, is hovering just above the 50-day EMA at $1.40, which lends initial trend support, but it remains well below the 100-day EMA at 1.50 and the broader downward parallel channel cap near $1.54, keeping the medium-term tone capped within a broader corrective structure.

The RSI at 53 suggests mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the MACD has slipped slightly into negative territory, hinting that upside traction may be fading as price consolidates under higher EMAs.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day EMA around $1.50, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near $1.55; a sustained break above these would be needed to challenge the 200-day EMA at $1.74 and the more distant horizontal barrier at $1.90.

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $1.40 underpins the market as first support, ahead of the horizontal floor at $1.30, while the channel base down at $0.73 marks the broader structural support zone in the event of a deeper pullback.